Is Wales set for a once-in-a-century political shift?

People in Wales will go to the polls for the Senedd election on 7 May 2026

Put your hand up if you remember Labour not "winning" a general election in Wales or being the biggest party after a Senedd election.

Congratulations if you do, because you would need to be more than 100 years old.

Like the First Minister Eluned Morgan, you might have had recent official correspondence from His Majesty The King.

But an era-defining change could well be looming in just eight months.

Another poll last week suggested that Labour will come third in next year's Senedd election.

The same polling trends suggest Plaid Cymru and Reform are battling it out to be biggest party.

So what is Labour going to do about it?

We are being steered away from a cabinet reshuffle, despite Health Secretary Jeremy Miles' shock announcement last week that he would not stand at the next election.

Morgan, we understand, feels she has the right team in place but the row over her decision to turn down an invite from the King to the Trump banquet is a row Labour did not need, especially at a time when there are so many other problems.

After elaborating on the reasons for not going, the man who used to run her office has written that leaving the public to guess about her motives "does her no credit" and has urged her to "clear this up".

On Thursday, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer will give his traditional round of pre-party-conference broadcast interviews.

Has he "woken up" to the prospect of losing in Wales and the "biggest kicking" in Labour history?

If so, what is he going to do about it?

At the conference itself, Sunday is Welsh day with speeches from Morgan and Welsh Secretary Jo Stevens.

Have they got a big vision or announcement that might give Labour something to shout about?

Their efforts last year on NHS waiting lists ended in confusion, followed by Morgan accusing people of putting words in her mouth.

By the time Sir Keir gives his speech on Tuesday, it will be just 23 days until the Caerphilly by-election.

That person might be out there, but I've yet to speak to anyone who genuinely thinks Labour will win.

In November we have the Budget, but Welsh Labour is not expecting a big dollop of cash from the Chancellor to help sweeten the offering to voters next May.

It has not been a good week for Labour in Wales - Trump, Miles, fingers being pointed at each other.

When Welsh Labour figures talk of "wake-up calls" for the prime minister and a looming "kicking" only to be told that they need to reflect on their own 26 years in power it does not present a united front to voters.

Morgan's big word has been delivery, which is problematic in itself when her number one priority – NHS waiting lists – are still likely to be long even if they have come down by next May.

The opposition parties have another big word: Change.

Both Plaid and Reform feel that voters have moved on and are leaving Labour behind - their job now is to convince people that their party represents that change best.

Labour are encountering a desire for something different on the doorsteps too.

A Welsh Labour source told Sunday's Politics Wales programme that Labour itself was changing with so many politicians standing down next May and some taking their "past drama" with them.

As things stand, that post-May 2026 refresh looks like taking place in opposition.

Were any in Labour tempted to think that a spell out of government might do them some good, a note of caution.

I was told the same thing privately by a number of politicians and delegates at the Conservative Party conference in autumn 2023.

The Tories were hammered at the 2024 general election and – given the rise of Reform – are arguably in an even more precarious position than Labour.

So far, six parties have chosen candidates:

• Conservatives - Gareth Potter

• Gwlad - Anthony Cook

• Labour - Richard Tunnicliffe

• Plaid Cymru - Lindsay Whittle

• Reform UK - Llŷr Powell

• Liberal Democrats - Steve Aicheler

The by-election will be held on the 23 October.

BBC Wales is holding a live debate for the candidates of the Caerphilly by-election on 15 October. Click below to apply to be in the audience.