Chris Mason: What happens next after shock Tory leadership vote

Kemi Badenoch (L) and Robert Jenrick (R)

The shock at the elimination of James Cleverly was near universal.

Not only had he failed to muster the handful of extra votes to make it into the last two, he had actually gone backwards.

How on Earth did that happen?

In a secret ballot, theories vary, but cock-up attracts more credibility than conspiracy among the various campaigns.

Some reckon some Conservative MPs concluded Cleverly was home and dry and so they could afford to vote for someone else, in the hope that contributed to the elimination of the candidate they really didn’t want to make the run-off.

Others say the other two campaigns were simply more effective and more persuasive when it really counted.

Who knows.

And, to be honest, it no longer matters.

The final pair have been decided and it is Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick, not either or.

Shorthand political labels for folk within a political party are often inadequate in capturing the subtlety of their outlook – but those who see themselves as centrist, or on the Left of the Conservative fold, find themselves without a flagbearer to pick from.

They express disappointment there isn’t a greater breadth of choice reflected in the final two, which is made up of two candidates who see themselves as on the Right on the party.

Robert Jenrick has moved to the Right since becoming an MP, his experience in government shifting his instincts on immigration for instance.

Kemi Badenoch is seen by her supporters as nothing less than a potential star: pugnacious in articulating her Conservatism, willing to say what others won’t.

But even her backers admit as one put it to me that she is a “work in progress,” more vulnerable to foot in mouth moments as well as incidences of triumph.

This race now changes gear.

It is a new election, with a new electorate.

No longer just the 121 Conservative MPs but tens of thousands of Tory party members all around the UK.

Team Jenrick see themselves as the challengers, the underdogs.

And their strategy appears to embrace that: challenging Kemi Badenoch to debate them any time, any place, anywhere.

Jenrick will be straight out of the blocks with a speech in Westminster on Thursday.

Team Badenoch point out that they topped the MPs ballot and surveys suggest she is consistently the most popular potential leader among the party membership.

She will begin this next phase of her campaign alongside an aspiring Tory councillor contesting a council by-election on the outskirts of London.

It might sound low-key, but remember who the electorate is: Conservative Party members, just like that council candidate.

From both candidates, we can expect a laser focus on the issues that are perceived to matter to party members and attempting to meet as many of them as possible.

Yes, there will be a nod to the wider electorate, a desire to illustrate the capacity to win a general election, but those with a vote in this contest are those who wield the power now.

Ballot papers will be sent out in the coming days and party members will have a little over a fortnight to vote, on paper or online.

And then, three weeks on Saturday, 2 November, Rishi Sunak’s successor will be announced.

That point will mark the end of the post-election period in British politics.

By then the government will have set out its first Budget and a new Leader of the Opposition will be in place.

The political landscape of the coming years will have taken shape.

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