We can pull it back before the election, say Welsh Conservatives

Darren Millar says the opinion polls "motivate" him to work "twice as hard"

Welsh Conservative leader Darren Millar says his party is "not the establishment" ahead of what could be the most consequential Senedd election since 1999.

The Welsh Conservative party, which came second in the 2021 Senedd election, dropped in a recent opinion poll to fourth place.

Mr Millar told BBC Politics Wales he believed he could "pull it back" before the election in May 2026.

Welsh Labour has been the biggest party at every Senedd election since devolution began in 1999, but a recent poll by ITV Cymru Wales, YouGov and Cardiff University saw the party's projected vote share drop to a historic low of 14%, while Plaid Cymru and Reform came out in front.

At the beginning of the final Senedd term before the election, which will see the numbers of Senedd members increasing from 60 to 96 as part of major reforms, Mr Millar said the opinion polls had motivated him.

"If I see a poll that I think my party should be doing much better in, they motivate me to work twice as hard to get out messages across to the public, to persuade them back to the Conservative cause," he said.

Mr Millar said people in Wales "don't always appreciate or understand that Labour have had helpers over the years - Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats are equally to blame for the failure that they see".

The performance of the Welsh NHS, education system and economy are behind voters' satisfaction with the Welsh Labour government, according to Mr Millar.

He said he was "optimistic" because he believed more voters would return to the Conservative fold "as there's greater scrutiny on Reform, which is great at pointing out what the problems are but won't tell you what their solutions are to fix the NHS, to fix the education system and fix the economy".

Mr Millar said it was "frustrating" that "not everybody in Wales appreciates or understands the limitations of the Senedd and Welsh government's powers".

"Many people, of course, are motivated to vote for Reform because of their views on immigration, over which the Senedd has no responsibilities whatsoever."

Asked for his diagnosis of the woes facing the Conservative party across the UK, he conceded that his party had had a "disastrous" general election in 2024 and was still in "recovery mode".

"People, of course, are fed up with what they perceive to be the establishment but the Conservative Party is not the establishment when it comes to running the Welsh government. We have never been in power in Wales.

"The other parties, Plaid, Labour and the Liberal Democrats, have all had a hand in the crisis that we see in our economy, in our education system and in our health service."

A Welsh Labour spokesperson said Labour was "clearing up the crises caused by fourteen years of Conservatives in Westminster", adding: "Now the Tories are defecting to Reform in droves, jumping ship for self-preservation and calling it patriotism."

Plaid Cymru said Millar's comments were "depressing", adding: "Plaid Cymru has consistently challenged Labour when they've failed Wales - on funding, on the NHS, on public services. But for the Tories to lecture anyone on economic competence or public services is astonishing."

A Reform UK Wales spokesperson said the Conservatives were "on the path of extinction, and deservedly so", adding: "Voters will never forgive them for 14 years of abject failure in Westminster. Their track record speaks for itself."

The Welsh Liberal Democrats said it was "a bit rich" for the Conservatives to "blame smaller parties for the state of our country after 14 years of their own government in Westminster. They have also utterly failed in their role as the official opposition in Wales since 1999".

Politics Wales is available to watch at 10:00 BST on Sunday on BBC One Wales and iPlayer