Labour warns of cuts if it loses Senedd by-election

Eluned Morgan, stood to the left of the party's candidate Richard Tunnicliffe, said it would be 'tricky' for her party to pass a budget if it lost

Labour could find it harder to pass a budget if it loses the Caerphilly by-election, Eluned Morgan has said.

The first minister said to BBC Wales the country could face "significant cuts" if the Senedd cannot agree its spending plans.

Losing the 23 October election would leave Labour on 29 of the Senedd's 60 seats, meaning it will need the help of two opposition politicians to get its agenda through.

Plaid Cymru accused Labour of "scare mongering" while the Welsh Conservatives said people in Wales were "fed up with successive Labour governments".

Meanwhile Morgan said Reform was "hell bent" on dividing communities, something the party called a "baseless smear".

The election was triggered following the death of Labour's Hefin David in August. Labour has selected children's book publisher Richard Tunnicliffe to stand.

Plaid Cymru has announced former council leader Lindsay Whittle as its candidate. The Conservatives and Reform are expected to announce candidates by the end of the week.

Prior to Hefin David's death Labour held exactly half of the Senedd's 60 seats.

While it was still short of a majority, it had agreed a deal with the Welsh Liberal Democrat Jane Dodds to pass its last budget. Plaid Cymru, who had worked with Labour in previous years, voted against.

If Labour was unable to pass the budget the Welsh government's funding would be automatically cut, under the law that governs how devolution works.

Back in July Finance Secretary Mark Drakeford announced he would write a "neutral" budget with no new policies for 2026/27, in an attempt to avoid political wrangling.

Labour has held Caerphilly since devolution began in 1999.

Morgan said: "We are focused on making sure that we do everything we can to win this by-election. It is an important by election.

"We know that if we don't have the numbers in the Senedd, it'll be tricky for us to get a budget through.

"If we can't get a budget through, we are looking at significant cuts to local services, and what we know is that Plaid Cymru, for example, have shown before that they won't support us when it comes to protecting those local services.

"So there's a real threat here."

Reform threat to Labour taken 'very seriously'

When she was asked what the party's biggest rivals were, Morgan said Labour was taking the "threat" from Nigel Farage's Reform party "very seriously".

"We do think that they're a party that is hell bent on dividing our communities that also don't really have an understanding of Wales.

"Actually most of the leaders are former Tories, and that's not something generally that people in Caerphilly warm to."

After a summer where migration dominated the headlines, the first minister acknowledged concern over the issue "in lots of our communities".

"Obviously there are very, very low percentages of asylum seekers in this particularly area."

Richard Tunnicliffe runs Rily Publications with his wife

Labour unveiled its candidate Richard Tunnicliffe at the weekend.

The financial analyst, who runs publisher Rily with his wife, told BBC Wales said he had worked with Hefin David in lobbying the Labour run Welsh government to campaign for more funding "for book and to assist literacy in the Welsh language".

Tunnicliffe said David had suggested he get back involved in the party and had encouraged him to stand for the list in May.

"I think he saw something in me that I didn't, so I'm basically trying to live up to him and carry on his legacy."

The candidate said the election was a "potential opportunity" for people to give Labour "a kick, because too many people don't understand what the Senedd does".

"If people look at this as a protest vote, then it could easily come back to bite them," he said.

"There are real consequences of this election. It's not a free chance to give someone a bloody nose."

Labour accused of 'scare-mongering'

A Plaid Cymru spokesperson said: "These are nothing more than scare-mongering tactics from Labour who have taken the people of Caerphilly for granted for too long."

"It is deeply ironic to hear Labour talk about protecting services when their record locally tells a very different story," she added, complaining about recent cuts to services by the Labour-run Caerphilly council.

A Reform UK Wales spokesman said: "Twenty six years of Labour has left Wales at the bottom of the table on education, health and youth unemployment. Morgan's baseless smears only serve to deflect from their dreadful track record.

"After almost three decades of dismal performance and taking voters for granted, it's no wonder communities in Caerphilly are getting ready to give them a kicking at the ballot box."

Darren Millar, Welsh Conservative Senedd leader, added: "The people of Wales are fed up with successive Welsh Labour governments, propped up by Plaid Cymru, which have obsessed over 20mph speed limits and creating more politicians.

"The Welsh Conservatives are the only credible alternative. We have a clear plan to fix Wales, with a tax cutting agenda that puts more money into people's pockets," he added.