Gareth Lewis: What next for Wales' first minister?

Vaughan GethingImage source, PA Media
Image caption,

Vaughan Gething has said he will not resign despite losing a no-confidence motion in the Senedd

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The big question now is what happens next.

Wales' first minister Vaughan Gething has made clear he will not resign after losing a no-confidence vote in the Senedd.

Wednesday's vote, though unprecedented, does not compel him to do so.

That option for now is ruled out.

So what might happen?

The opposition parties could call a vote of no confidence in the government itself, rather than in the first minister.

The result of that would be binding, and if it succeeded would bring down the government.

So surely strike while the iron isn’t just hot, but actually melting? It might be down to numbers.

The numbers favoured a united opposition yesterday because two Labour members were absent with sickness.

Vikki Howells, who chairs the Welsh Labour group, has claimed the absent duo, Hannah Blythyn and Lee Waters, would have backed Mr Gething had they been able to.

Media caption,

Vaughan Gething defends record after no-confidence vote loss

What about Sir Keir Starmer getting involved from above to remove a distraction to the general election campaign?

That looks unlikely, with senior UK Labour figures doubling down on their support for Mr Gething.

An internal Welsh Labour Senedd move to tell the FM his time is up?

No sign of that at time of writing, and there was a desk-banging, hand-clapping show of unity from Labour MSs in yesterday's debate.

Or is the crunch - if it comes - further down the road?

Welsh Labour at some point will need to get something through the Senedd - a budget for example.

They are no longer in a co-operation agreement with Plaid Cymru, who withdrew from it last month.

So Mr Gething and his team will need support to do what they want to do.

He will need to strike a deal with another party.

What happens if he can't?