Plaid Cymru defeats Reform in Caerphilly by-election

Lindsay Whittle was elected as a Member of the Senedd after working as a councillor for almost 50 years

Plaid Cymru defeated Reform UK in the Welsh Parliament by-election for Caerphilly, with Labour coming third and suffering its first parliamentary defeat there for 100 years.

Nigel Farage's Reform hoped it could win having pledged to "throw everything" at the campaign, but Plaid's candidate Lindsay Whittle won 47% of the vote with a majority of 3,848.

The result saw a swing of 27% from Labour, which has held the seat in Westminster since the 1920s and in the Senedd since it began.

Whittle said his party had shown how it can beat Reform at the full Welsh Parliament elections in May, when Plaid hopes to form the next Welsh government.

A former Caerphilly council leader who has been a councillor for almost 50 years, Whittle said: "We've beaten billionaire-backed Reform and, with the same determination, we can do it again in May 2026."

He paid an emotional tribute to the late Caerphilly Member of the Senedd (MS) Hefin David, whose death had triggered the by-election, saying David's "kindness" was the "guiding spirit" of his campaign.

• As it happened: Plaid Cymru wins by-election as Labour loses seat for first time

• Analysis: A big win for Plaid - now the party eyes Senedd success

In his victory speech to jubilant supporters, Whittle said: "Listen Westminster, this is Caerphilly and Wales, telling you we want a better deal."

Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth said Caerphilly voters had "chosen hope over division, and progress over the tired status quo, and backed Plaid Cymru's positive, pro-Wales vision".

Turnout was just over 50% - higher than 2021's 44% in Caerphilly. The national average for a Senedd vote has never been over 50%.

Reform won only 495 votes four years ago but ended in a two horse race with Plaid Cymru in Thursday's poll, coming second with 36% of the vote.

The constituency was visited by a series of senior figures from the party in the last few days, including Nigel Farage, who campaigned in Caerphilly on Thursday.

Despite the result Llŷr Powell said he thought Reform will form the next Welsh government.

"Our ground campaign is going to get better," he said.

"We've got more people turning out to vote now when they've got a party they believe in."

He was angry about Labour's campaign - the party deleted social media posts after receiving a legal letter from Reform.

Powell said the party "deserved to be in the gutter like their campaign belonged".

Llŷr Powell was Reform's candidate for the by-election

Labour's Richard Tunnicliffe won just 11% of the vote and came third behind Reform, which won 36% of the vote.

It had held Caerphilly since the National Assembly, as the Welsh Parliament - or Senedd - was then called, opened in 1999.

The result leaves them two seats short of a majority, making it harder for the party to govern ahead of a crucial vote on its budget next January.

It has already begun talks with opposition leaders in an effort to work out how it can get its spending plans on the NHS, education and other services through the Senedd.

Labour's First Minister Eluned Morgan congratulated the Plaid Cymru candidate, and said the by-election was held "in the toughest of circumstances, and in the midst of difficult headwinds nationally".

She said Labour had heard "the frustration on doorsteps in Caerphilly", adding: "We take our share of the responsibility for this result. We are listening, we are learning the lessons, and we will be come back stronger."

Analysis

By Gareth Lewis, BBC Wales political editor

Remember the date: in the early hours of 24 October more than a century of Labour dominance in Caerphilly came to a shattering end.

Plaid Cymru is jubilant – its winning candidate Lindsay Whittle described Labour as a fatally wounded animal.

The party has its sights set on repeating this result across the board at next year's Senedd election.

Plaid feels it's persuading voters that it is a viable alternative to Labour and an alternative to run the Welsh government.

In the end it was not as close as we expected.

There are lessons too for Reform, as despite a high turnout it did not persuade enough voters to back its candidate Llŷr Powell.

The Senedd election looms next May giving Labour precious little time to turn things round.

The search for answers begins in a few hours when the party's MSs meet in the Senedd on Friday morning.

If there were any doubts before this morning, more than a century of Labour dominance across the whole of Wales is now under serious threat.