NI growth 'faster than the rest of the UK', say economists

Danske Bank’s quarterly survey suggests consumer confidence in NI weakened slightly in the third quarter of this year.

Northern Ireland’s economy is likely to have grown faster than the UK average this year, Ulster University economists suggest.

The Ulster University Economic Policy Centre (UUEPC) has forecast that annual growth in NI will be 1.9% compared to a UK rate of 1.2%.

However, that position is expected to be reversed next year with annual growth in NI forecast to slow to 1.5%.

Meanwhile, Danske Bank’s quarterly survey suggests consumer confidence in NI weakened slightly in the third quarter of this year.

The survey of 1,000 people suggests that confidence was still much higher compared to the same period in 2023.

Danske Bank Economist Hannah Martin said: "It is worth noting that, despite the quarterly fall in confidence, the third quarter outturn from our index was still the second highest reading since the start of 2022, and it was also above the long-term average."

"This suggests that there was more caution in quarter three, but a reasonable level of confidence was still evident among consumers," she added.

'Robust strength'

The UUEPC report says that for the UK as a whole, the recent Westminster budget will give a temporary boost to growth due to increased public spending.

However, it adds that growth is likely to slow in the medium term due to higher taxes and inflation that will be higher than it would have been without the budget measures.

Dr Myles Patton, principal economist at the UUEPC, said:  "Despite considerable economic turbulence, the Northern Ireland economy has displayed robust strength and performed relatively well in 2024, largely due to the local labour market with increasing workforce jobs underpinned by expansion in the professional services, manufacturing, and health sectors.

"Looking ahead, growth is expected to slow, but if the NI Executive make the right economic-focused investment decisions, recovery can be expected in the medium and longer term.”