Labour to lose by-election, say multiple party sources

If Labour lose a source said it would be a "defeat for Starmerism, not for First Minister Eluned Morgan"

Labour is set to lose the Caerphilly by-election according to multiple sources within the party.

It would bring to an end more than a century of Labour victories in the constituency in elections to Westminster and the Senedd.

Recent polling suggests Plaid Cymru and Reform are fighting to challenge Labour's dominance in Wales.

Sources in both parties say the contest between them in Caerphilly is close.

Party leaders Rhun ap Iorwerth and Nigel Farage both campaigned there on Thursday.

The by-election comes six months before the 2026 Senedd election and will be seen as one indication of what might potentially happen next May.

One Labour source described the expected defeat in Caerphilly as a "defeat for Starmerism, not for First Minister Eluned Morgan", with Morgan having been relatively popular on the doorsteps.

But the source warned that the first minister needed to "assert herself" and differentiate Welsh Labour as much as possible from the UK party in the run-up to next May's poll.

Labour Senedd members are expected to hold a meeting on Friday morning.