The 'tight' vote facing the Welsh Tory leader

Andrew RT Davies has been leader of the Welsh Conservatives in the Senedd for most of the last 13 years

Andrew RT Davies faces a vote of confidence in his leadership on Tuesday from members of his own Conservative group in the Senedd.

There has been private and public discontent over some of his social media posts, and question marks over the direction of the party. Polling for the 2026 Senedd election makes grim reading for the Tories.

As things stand, it looks as if the vote will be close – “tight” and “50-50” according to some sources.

Neither side appears confident they have the numbers.

Even if Davies wins it is possible that either he or his colleagues feel that his position is no longer tenable.

Might some MSs resign from his shadow cabinet in the event of a close win for Davies?

That is similar to the scenario that eventually brought down former First Minister Vaughan Gething earlier this year, when several cabinet members quit.

Might Davies himself stand down if he knows that his group is completely split?

Might he win, stay on, but face a monumental job of convincing his colleagues that he’s their best option?

It is very uncertain and very tense - with the future of the leadership and future direction of the party at stake, as well as the increasingly urgent need to address some dire polling ahead of the Senedd election in 2026.

A recent ITV Wales/Cardiff University poll, published at the weekend, suggested the Tories were polling in fourth place at 19%, behind Labour and Reform at 23%, and Plaid Cymru at 24%.

Not many Conservative MSs have publicly declared where they stand on the vote of confidence, with many opting not to comment.

Read into that what you will, if they are being asked if they back their leader.

Others say they would prefer not to get involved in any public debate, and some have come out in support of Andrew RT Davies.

The Vale of Clwyd MS Gareth Davies posted on X two days ago that “as current things stand Andrew RT Davies has still my support in being leader.”

'Night of the wet knives'

There is also briefing going on against some of the MSs believed to be seeking a change.

One anonymous Welsh Conservative source singled out the Shadow Economy Minister Samuel Kurtz: “Is anyone surprised?

“Kurtz is openly in favour of expanding the Senedd and he’s totally opposed to RT’s strategy of taking on Reform. This is set to be the night of the wet knives.”

Samuel Kurtz - who is also chair of the group - has been asked to comment.

Some grassroots Welsh Tories have also backed Davies on social media and suggested that he has support from the wider party membership in Wales.

If Davies does go, it’s a big gap to fill.

Welsh Conservative MSs would either need to rally round one alternative or, if there is more than one contender two names would eventually go out to the wider membership, leading to a campaign and eventual vote.

In that scenario an interim leader would need to be appointed.

This time last year we were just weeks away from Mark Drakeford announcing his intention to stand down as FM and a much-anticipated Welsh government budget. Here we go again.

Was 2024 a quiet and restful year in Welsh politics? Not even close.

And tomorrow is still to come.

The Barn Cymru ITV Wales/Cardiff University poll sampled 1,121 adults between 25-29 November.