Gareth Lewis: Election has Welsh and UK Labour at odds
Sir Keir Starmer visited Carmarthenshire on his last day of campaigning
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It ends as it began. Wet.
From the downpour of Downing Street to the drizzle of Caerfyrddin, the seat where Keir Starmer and Rhun ap Iorwerth campaigned on Wednesday.
The weather hasn’t changed and neither have the polls.
But some of what has happened in between suggests a turbulent Welsh political climate in the two years ahead.
One of those clouds is the relationship between UK Labour and Welsh Labour.
Sir Keir Starmer joined Vaughan Gething at an election event in Carmarthen on Wednesday on the last day of the campaign
The two parts of the party are at odds over more powers and more money coming to Wales.
Sir Keir made a big play - again - of fighting hard to save jobs at Tata Steel in Port Talbot, in conjunction with the Welsh government.
- Published3 July
- Published2 July
It is less clear how much cash or further devolution of power will come.
He described two Labour governments working together as a "double opportunity".
They’ll need to prove that to voters not only to reward what looks like a lot of Welsh support, but also with the 2026 Senedd election already looming.
There is also the question of who Sir Keir might be dealing with as Wales' first minister by that point.
Vaughan Gething is under pressure and, as it stands, it is unclear how he could pass a budget.
Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth also began his final day campaigning in Caerfyrddin - the Welsh name for Carmarthen - a seat a poll on Tuesday suggested is too close to call.
They are targeting Labour voters who feel let down, yet their perennial problem remains: winning their target seats.
But again that’s not the whole story - they’re looking good at the moment for 2026, when things are looking the polar opposite for Labour.
The Conservatives have not had a good campaign, although they still have a puncher’s chance in some Welsh seats.
They have doubled down - and will double down - on the Welsh Labour government’s record especially on the 20mph law and the NHS.
But has the fight gone out of them?
And its not just cabinet ministers already conceding defeat live on BBC radio.
Rhun ap Iorwerth also braved the rain during last minute campaigning in Garnant, in the constituency of Caerfyrddin
At time of writing we have not been able to pin down where they’re actually campaigning in Wales on the final day.
Reform are now neck and neck with the Tories according to the polls, although under the first past the post system are not likely to win any seats.
But under a proportional representation system in the Senedd election they could be a far more potent threat.
It was no accident that they launched their UK manifesto in the south Wales valleys - where they think they have a lot of support.
Keep an eye on their percentage share on Thursday night.
But this election does look like it belongs to Labour. Change has been their 2024 campaign mantra.
Come 2026 and the Senedd election they will have been 27 years in power in Cardiff Bay.
That mantra might well be turned against them by their opponents.