Election date brings Stormont battle lines into focus

First Minister Michelle O'Neill and Deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly

Northern Ireland has enjoyed nearly four months of political stability since devolved government was restored after a two-year hiatus.

But launching into a general election campaign may place Stormont in a fresh state of flux.

While the political parties have long been preparing for this, the date finally being confirmed will bring battle lines into focus.

Of the 18 constituencies, the bellwether one will likely be Lagan Valley.

Former Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson has been MP there for the past 27 years.

But he will not be standing again after being charged with historical sex offences, which he has said he would be strenuously contesting.

The unprecedented implosion of his political career in March leaves his former party with a dilemma over who their candidate should be.

Emma Little-Pengelly and Paul Givan are DUP assembly members for the constituency.

However, becoming MP would pull them out of Stormont’s only-recently restored devolved government, where they hold the roles of deputy first minister and education minister.

And success is not guaranteed, with the likes of Alliance Party assembly member Sorcha Eastwood strongly challenging for the seat.

Gavin Robinson, the DUP’s interim leader following the Sir Jeffrey turmoil, could also come under pressure to defend his seat in Belfast East.

The level of challenge may depend on whether Alliance leader Naomi Long decides to run.

Since Stormont’s return she has been undecided, as it would mean giving up her assembly seat and role as justice minister.

We know of at least one minister in Northern Ireland’s four-party executive who is stepping down to make a pitch for the green benches.

Robin Swann plans to stand down as health minister to run in South Antrim for the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP).

Confusion over the strategy has caused internal party divisions. This week saw a senior councillor quit over former UUP leader Mike Nesbitt being earmarked to take on the ministerial role.

Boundary changes

Another factor will be the impact of Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) leader Jim Allister and his party.

In opposition to post-Brexit trade rules under the Northern Ireland Protocol, they have vocally opposed the DUP's decision to restore Stormont earlier this year.

It may be Stormont’s smallest unionist party, but its link-up with Reform UK will involve standing candidates against sitting DUP MPs in protest.

The shifts within unionism is a focus for now, but a major talking point when the dust settles on this election, may well be the performance of Sinn Féin.

It became the largest party at Stormont for the first time in assembly elections in 2022, and repeated the feat at council level in 2023.

Can the Irish republican party complete the hat-trick, overtaking the DUP as the largest party at Westminster as well?

Sinn Féin secured seven MP seats in 2019 - just one fewer than the DUP. The Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) has two MPs, while Alliance has one.

Constituency boundary changes - as well as the poll happening during Northern Ireland’s summer parading season - may add to the unpredictability of this campaign.