Will the South East's 'blue wall' crumble?

What will the political landscape look like when we wake up on Friday morning?

“I sense there will be a cataclysmic wipe-out in the South East”, a WhatsApp message reads from one rather disillusioned former Conservative MP in my phonebook.

“There’s change in the air,” it goes on. “It feels like no one is immune.”

If you believe the polls, Labour is on course for victory in the general election. But south-east England has been dominated by the Conservatives for at least 14 years. In some constituencies they’ve never been out of power.

So, is the so-called blue wall really about to crumble?

Of course, that’s impossible to answer right now. The polls vary wildly, aren’t always right, and activists will give you contrasting assessments of how things are going on the doorstep.

Opposition parties, particularly Labour, certainly don’t seem complacent. That’s because they have a mountain to climb. Most Tories in the region are sitting on majorities of between 15,000 and 26,000.

Regardless, some of these parties are ruthless and single-minded about the seats they’re targeting.

Opposition targeting 'blue wall'

Labour has been pumping resources into Medway, parts of East Kent like Dover and East Thanet, and along the Sussex coast.

The Liberal Democrats want to win back seats they’ve formerly held like Eastbourne and Lewes, and some new ones. Many who live in Tunbridge Wells will tell you their doormats are piled high with Lib Dem leaflets.

They think Surrey is in their sights too. After building up their presence on the county’s local councils, they’re hoping to make gains, including seats occupied by high-profile MPs like the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt.

The Greens are aiming to hold on to Brighton Pavilion where their only MP, Caroline Lucas, has stood down. But Labour activists are putting up a fight there too.

And Reform UK has sent its leader, Nigel Farage, to campaign in Kent twice in recent weeks.

For the Conservatives, the campaign is naturally defensive, after a very strong set of results in 2019. But even the most dramatic polls show them holding on in the true-blue Tory areas and winning new seats like Weald of Kent.

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But while Labour kicked off the campaign in Gillingham, and the Lib Dem leader has made three separate trips to the patch, including clambering around an assault course, the Prime Minister hasn’t been to East Sussex or Kent yet.

One Conservative candidate, a former MP who knows a thing or two about campaigning, told me they said "no thanks" to Conservative Campaign Headquarters’ (CCHQ) offer of a senior visit, preferring to focus the messaging on their local record.

Another, when asked about a lack of visits, said: “We haven’t put any bids in with CCHQ, let’s put it that way.”

'I didn't get booed'

After a tricky campaign for the Conservatives nationally, activists in the South East don’t deny that it hasn’t been easy for them. But some sound a bit more optimistic, pointing to particular parts where support still feels strong.

They say the doorsteps don’t match the polls. “There’s no swing to Labour”, one candidate in one of the more marginal seats tells me. “It’s difficult to predict what will happen.”

Admittedly, the bar does seem quite low. “I went to a hustings the other day and I didn’t get booed”, another candidate in a different marginal constituency tells me, cheerily.

Labour activists will also tell you that they don’t think the national polling equates to what they’re seeing on the ground. Their biggest fear is complacency among their voters and for them the final days of campaigning are about inspiring supporters to make the trip down to the polling booth on Thursday.

Of course, during an election campaign you should read a lot of these conversations through the lens of "expectation management".

Parties of all colours want to play down their prospects, in the hope they do better than expected.

They’ll also tell you that the only the poll you can really believe, and the only voter feedback you can really trust, is the verdict delivered on polling day itself.

We’ll find out the extent of the damage – if any at all – to the South East’s blue wall in the early hours of Friday.