Has Scotland closed the attainment gap in schools?

The Scottish government uses various measures to work out attainment gap in schools

Ten years ago, the then first minister Nicola Sturgeon said she wanted to be judged on closing the attainment gap between Scotland's richest and poorest children.

Recent figures suggest there is still a long way to go in tackling one of the SNP's defining priorities.

What is the attainment gap?

In short, it is the difference between what Scotland's richest and poorest pupils are achieving in education, recognising that poverty is one of the biggest obstacles facing some young people.

The comparison is made using a tool called the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD), which ranks almost 7,000 areas using information such as household income.

The Scottish government uses 13 measures for the size of the gap between the richest and poorest groups.

They include the number of pre-school children showing development concerns, levels of literacy and numeracy at primary school, qualifications and the destinations pupils go on to, such as further education or apprenticeships.

Experts say some of the measures are more meaningful than others.

How big is the attainment gap?

Nicola Sturgeon said she wanted to be judged on closing the attainment gap

In the Scottish government's most recent assessment, which uses data published up to 2023, gaps remained in all measures - though it was narrower in some.

When comparing the proportion of school leavers going on to initial "positive destinations" it had shrunk from 6.9 to 3.7 percentage points.

The Scottish government often highlights this as a result of successful policy.

Education consultant Prof Sue Ellis said it was an important measure, but added there was no common definition of what counted as a positive destination.

She said: "It's not clear, for example, if an 'activity agreement' - which means pupils leaving at 16 might agree to come into school once a week - might count as a positive destination, and it's short-term.

"If it's to become the main measure, then we need a clear definition about what counts."

Another measure suggested 41.5% of pupils from the poorest fifth left school with at least one Higher or equivalent, compared to 78.3% of those in the richest fifth.

When this year's exam results were published Education Secretary Jenny Gilruth said the picture was "encouraging".

The Scottish Qualifications Authority (SQA) said the results showed the poverty-related gap was closing "at all levels".

But looking at the 2025 results in detail, the gap for pupils achieving an at A to C grade at Higher was 17.1 percentage points.

This year 66.1% of those from the poorest areas and 83.2% of those from the richest areas made those grades.

The gap is the same as in 2024 and slightly wider than in 2019, 2022 and 2023.

The equivalent gap at National 5 was 16.6 percentage points and at Advanced Higher it was 12.8 percentage points.

The exam results data only includes pupils who actually sit these important assessments – far fewer pupils from the poorest areas take on the challenge.

Looking at the total number of entries for Higher exams, 29% are pupils from the richest parts of Scotland and only 14% are from the poorest areas.

The gap is narrower at National 5, but it is extremely stark at Advanced Higher level – often used for entry into top universities – with nearly 40% of entries from the wealthiest areas.

What was the SNP's pledge?

The task of breaking this cycle of poverty was the stated priority of Sturgeon when she took charge of the Scottish government 10 years ago.

She told the 2015 SNP conference she wanted to be judged on it. "I've put my own neck on the line," she said.

The following year the SNP's programme for government pledged to "substantially eliminate" the gap within a decade.

In the parliamentary term from 2016 to 2021, the government spent £750m on tackling it through the Scottish Attainment Challenge, and said that would rise to £1bn during the current term.

John Swinney is updating Scotland's directors of education

First Minister John Swinney is expected to renew this commitment ahead of another Holyrood campaign in 2026, but any assessment of his party's progress so far might cast doubt on how realistic it is.

Earlier this year he faced a rebuke from the UK statistics watchdog for his attainment gap claims, when celebrating his government's achievements.

The political opposition has been scathing.

Pam Duncan-Glancy, of Scottish Labour, said: "The SNP has gone from promising to close the attainment gap entirely to congratulating itself for the most incremental progress."

The Scottish Conservatives said Sturgeon's promises lay "in tatters".

Why is the gap not closing?

In a 2021 report Audit Scotland said progress since 2013-14 had been limited and fallen short of ministers' aims.

The watchdog found inequalities were complex and not just affected by what goes on in the classroom.

It said the rising cost of living and the Covid pandemic had made things worse.

Pupils attainment was affected by learning conditions during the Covid pandemic

Teachers say the families hardest hit by school closures during lockdown were those living in poverty.

Many did not have access to computers or the space needed for learning at home, nor the private tutors some parents used to help their children catch up.

Some schools have been held up as positive examples, with a focus on closing the gap through the use government funding to raise aspirations, not just for exam results but practical apprenticeships and employment.

Holyrood's own inquiry praised the hard work of teachers, but concluded that overall there had been a distinct lack of progress.

Sturgeon recently admitted that it was a mistake to believe she could close the gap in a decade.

Are there solutions?

What you learn at school and the grades you achieve are one of the most important measures of future opportunities and success.

It is not just about getting into university or getting an apprenticeship.

On the most fundamental level it can mean the difference between learning to read and write, or not.

Most academics say the money invested in closing the gap is positive, but some say the overall analysis of what works is lacking.

Ministers have established a number of policies and funds aimed at improving outcomes for young people up to the age of 26.

But Prof Sue Ellis said the lack of an overarching plan, oversight and assessment of what works has been a major impediment to progress.

She said: "The first big issue is that for the whole of primary and lower secondary school we rely on teachers' judgments."

Prof Ellis said by the time pupils faced standardised assessments, like National 5s, it was too late.

She said: "The second big issue is that all that money was put into closing the gap, but without any assessment of exactly which ideas were working, nor lessons learnt about what was not working.

"It has been a mish-mash of ideas and there is no overall strategy.

"Teachers and headteachers are working so hard. But there is a lack of clear overarching leadership."

The Scottish government said it had invested £1.75bn over 10 years to help improve outcomes for children and young people impacted by poverty.

A spokesperson said recent exam results underlined the "strong recovery" being seen in schools since the Covid pandemic.

They added: "As we reflect on progress over the past 10 years we are also looking to the future with local authorities and headteachers, to agree how best we might collectively go further and faster."