Reform could win lots of Senedd seats, says Farage

Nigel Farage says the Senedd's electoral system offers Reform a great opportunity

Reform UK will be "a serious contender" at the next Senedd election, according to the party's leader Nigel Farage.

Speaking ahead of his party's conference in Birmingham, he said Reform could "win a lot of seats" in Cardiff Bay in 2026.

The party does not currently have any Members of the Senedd (MSs).

However, Reform hopes to capitalise on the more proportional voting system that will be in place for the next election to the Welsh Parliament.

"We've got these elections coming up in 2026, we've had the new announcement there'll be 16 super-constituencies, six members each, all elected under proportional representation," Farage said.

"We will be taking this seriously."

Reform won five seats at the UK general election, with Farage himself being elected to Westminster for the first time at the eighth attempt. However, none of those seats were in Wales.

Reform came second in 13 of the 32 Welsh constituencies at the general election, as it secured 16.9% of the vote across Wales - an increase of 11.5% compared to 2019 when it stood as the Brexit Party.

One of the seats where the right-wing party came second in July was Torfaen, where the party gained its first councillors in Wales soon after the election, when three independent members of the local council formed a Reform group.

One of them, Alan Slade, who was first elected as a Labour politician, said he was attracted by Reform's "common sense" policies.

The party's general election manifesto, which was launched in Merthyr Tydfil, included promises to freeze "non-essential" immigration, cut taxes for small businesses and scrap the UK's target for cutting greenhouse gas emissions.

"I think Reform needs a chance to show that it's a party of action rather than words, so that suits me, because that's exactly what I like to think I do," Slade added.

Alan Slade says there was vitriol and an "outpouring of support" for Reform councillors

Asked about the criticism often levelled at Farage that he is a populist who promotes anti-immigrant sentiment, Slade said: "I don't know Nigel at all... but when people say 'populist', what does that mean?

"To me it means carrying out things that people want."

Slade said the response to the formation of the Reform group on Torfaen council was mixed, and the councillors had received some "pretty vitriolic" comments.

But there has also been "a real outpouring of support," he said.

Forecast of 14-17 Senedd seats

Reform's share of the vote in Wales at the general election was greater than Plaid Cymru, with four seats, and the Liberal Democrats, with one.

The party hopes its strong performance in July will stand it in good stead at the next Senedd election in 2026, under a more proportional electoral system.

Polling expert Dr Jac Larner from Cardiff University said Reform should be "very confident" ahead of that election, and that current polling suggests the party could win "somewhere between 14 and 17" Senedd seats.

He also suggested that if the Conservatives "continue to struggle", Reform could end up being the largest right of centre party in the Senedd, "and even - depending on what happens above them - potentially the official opposition".

Gary and Janet Taylor like Nigel Farage and voted Reform at the general election

If Reform does win seats at the Senedd election, it would mark another anti-establishment breakthrough for Farage in Cardiff Bay.

He was the leader of UKIP when that party won seven seats in 2016, before in-fighting saw the group fall apart over the course of the Senedd term.

Farage later led the Brexit Party, which also had a group in the Senedd. The Brexit Party became Reform UK.

Why did people vote Reform in July?

In Cwmbran town centre, in Torfaen, Gary and Janet Taylor, both in their 70s, explained why they backed the party.

"I like Nigel Farage, I like his attitude, I like his straightforwardness, I think he's just one of those people who says something and really means it," said Mr Taylor.

"There aren't many politicians you can trust and when you find somebody you think their personality is trustworthy, it makes a big difference in what you do," added Mrs Taylor.

Another man said he would have voted for Reform, but he thought it would be a wasted vote because he did not think they "stood a chance" in Torfaen.

"Their policies on stopping the boats I agree with, because I think everybody's just had a gutsful, it's getting ridiculous the amount of people coming over," he said.

"I'm not a Nigel Farage fan," one lady said, "but I think he's got some good points."