Population likely lower than data shows - States

The last statistics published had likely understated migration, the States said

There could be a drop of 3% in Guernsey's recorded population when "IT system changes and data validation tasks" are completed and island statistics are restored, the States has said.

It added it was because the number of people who moved away from Guernsey was "likely" to have been understated in the past, which was identified by a new States computer system.

The States said work was continuing to restore quarterly publications of population, employment and earnings figures, but "more time is needed" to ensure statistics were accurate.

It added a "series of IT system changes and data validation tasks need to be completed and thoroughly tested before publication can be resumed".

The new IT systems in the Revenue Service had "brought to light" the data issues in the Rolling Electronic Census, it said.

"These issues are likely to have caused historical outward migration statistics, i.e. the number of people moving away from Guernsey, to be understated," it said.

The States added: "While it is normal for these statistics to be restated by small amounts each time they are issued after new information comes to light, it is now expected that the next publication could include a downward revision of the total population of up to 3% - a larger revision than is normal."

It said previously published employment and earnings statistics should be unaffected and "accuracy of statistics remains the priority".

"It is important that the public can have confidence in the published statistics.

"Since it is taking longer than anticipated to apply and validate all the necessary changes, additional resources have been applied to this work to accelerate it," the States added.

The latest recorded population of Guernsey, recorded for December 2023 and published in October 2024, was 64,781 - which marked an increase of more than 1%.