Trump wins another delay in New York case. Will he ever be sentenced?

Donald Trump waits in court during his Manhattan criminal trial in May.

Donald Trump has won yet another delay in the sentencing of his New York criminal "hush money" case.

The court agreed to hold off any decisions until 19 November while the parties sort out the historic implications of his re-election.

Tuesday's deadline was originally set to decide whether to move ahead with Trump's sentencing or throw out his conviction on 34 felony counts.

Both prosecutors and Trump’s attorneys convinced a judge they needed more time to weigh the “unprecedented circumstances” before any decision about his sentencing could be made.

In May, a New York jury found Trump guilty of falsifying business records.

The conviction stemmed from Trump’s attempt to cover up reimbursements to his ex-lawyer, Michael Cohen, who in 2016 paid off an adult film star to remain silent about an alleged sexual encounter with Trump.

Trump is arguing for the case to be thrown out.

“The stay, and dismissal, are necessary to avoid unconstitutional impediments to President Trump’s ability to govern,” Trump's attorney, Emil Bove, wrote in a court filing.

Should Justice Juan Merchan, who is overseeing the case, side with Trump, it would almost wipe clean his slate of criminal woes.

But should the judge uphold the conviction, he may proceed to sentencing before Trump takes office following his 20 January inauguration.

That would likely spark even more delay attempts from Trump and open up an unprecedented new front for America’s criminal justice system.

Trump's sentencing in his Manhattan trial was first postponed until after the November election and rescheduled for late November.

That date was thrown into uncertainty after Justice Merchan granted a stay on Tuesday of current court deadlines until 19 November.

Trump’s lawyers argue that a recent US Supreme Court ruling granting presidents a degree of immunity from criminal prosecution applies to certain aspects of his New York case, and therefore the indictment and conviction should be tossed.

During the trial, Justice Merchan dismissed attempts by Trump’s lawyers to throw out the case on immunity grounds. That was before this summer's Supreme Court immunity ruling in Trump’s favour and before he decisively won re-election this month.

Justice Merchan had originally set a deadline for Tuesday to decide whether to grant Trump’s request.

If he throws out the conviction, that will be the end of the New York case.

Trump’s imminent return to the White House has already effectively slammed the door on the two cases involving federal criminal charges against him.

A state case against him for allegedly conspiring to interfere with Georgia’s election in 2020 will go on hold until after his second term in office ends - if it's still alive by then.

An unprecedented sentencing – with jail unlikely

Even if Justice Merchan upholds the New York conviction and keeps the scheduled sentencing, Trump’s team is almost certain to seek more delays and appeals.

Because Trump will be tied up with a presidential transition, and because legal questions around sentencing a president are so complex, some scholars see very little chance it will stay on the calendar.

“I think the most likely outcome in the state case is the judge putting off sentencing until after Trump's term in office,” said Daniel Charles Richman, a professor at Columbia Law School.

“To actually impose a sentence would raise any number of messy issues in the short term”, including political ones, he said.

If Trump does find himself in a Manhattan courtroom before he takes office, deciding his fate would still be an unprecedented challenge.

Under the law, Trump faces a range of sentences, including fines, probation and up to four years in prison. But many options are rendered impractical by re-election win.

“Sentencing a sitting president may be one of the most complicated, fraught sentencing decisions you can imagine,” said Anna Cominsky, a professor at the New York Law School.

“It’s hard to imagine what sentence could be imposed that would not impede a president’s ability to do their job or compromise the president’s security."

Few expect Justice Merchan to sentence Trump to a stint behind bars at this point and if he did, Trump's team would almost certainly appeal it.

“He’s a 78-year old man with no criminal history, who has been convicted of a non-violent felony,” said retired New York Supreme Court Justice Diane Kiesel.

“I don’t think a judge would give a person under those sentences an incarceration sentence.”

Trump could leave a sentencing hearing with the legal equivalent of a slap on the wrist. Justice Merchan could ask the former president to pay a relatively small fine in the three- or four-figure range.

He could also give Trump an unconditional discharge; “basically, goodbye”, as Justice Kiesel puts it.

Trump has no pardon power here

The only thing that is certain is that Trump cannot make this conviction go away on his own.

Trump has explored the possibility of pardoning himself from potential criminal charges in the past, and could do so for his federal indictments when he becomes president in January.

But he cannot pardon himself in New York, as the conviction occurred in state, not federal, court.

His fate, at the moment, is in the hands of the court. But regardless of the outcome, Trump will likely avoid the most serious punishments facing him.

“He is a very lucky man,” Justice Kiesel said.