New Senedd voting system may help Tories, says leader

Darren Millar took over as Welsh Conservative leader in late 2024

A shake-up of how voters will elect the next Welsh Parliament could help the Conservatives in the upcoming May 2026 elections, according to the party's Senedd leader.

The Senedd is expanding from 60 to 96 politicians next year, with a new party list system used to elect them all.

Darren Millar said the new system, which will reflect how people voted more closely than in the past, could help "motivate more people".

But the senior Tory said he remained opposed to the changes, which he said would reduce the direct accountability politicians have to their voters.

Meanwhile the Welsh Conservative leader confirmed he will leave his role as chief executive of Christian charity the Pocket Testament League at the end of this month.

Millar, who made the comments in a wide-ranging interview with BBC Wales podcast Walescast, took over as Senedd leader following the decision by Andrew RT Davies to dramatically quit late last year.

So far the Senedd has been elected through a mixed system using first past the post elections for 40 seats - where a candidate needs to beat all other candidates to win - and a list system for 20 seats - where candidates are elected from party lists according to the proportion of the vote they get.

Next May all 96 politicians will be elected from lists of candidates, with 16 constituencies voting for six politicians each.

A system called D'Hondt will be used to try to ensure that the people elected reflect the proportion that voted for them.

Under the first past the post system that does not necessarily happen, because voters who back the second or third place candidate will not see their votes result in someone getting elected.

Millar admits his party was paying a "penance" after "a turbulent period in British politics"

Millar told Walescast: "I think the new voting system obviously means that every single vote really does count."

Under the previous system, he said if people lived in an area where they "don't think there's a cat in hell's chance of a Conservative being elected, a lot of people just don't bother going out to vote".

"So we can overcome that this time because of the new voting system. I think we can help to motivate more people who are Conservative to go out and vote," he added.

Millar reiterated his opposition to the system, however, because voters can only back parties and not specific candidates.

"The new system is effectively a power grab from members of the public to political parties so that they determine who represents those areas and not members of the public."

He said the changed system "may push turnout up" but that first past the post was the "best way to make sure an individual member of the Senedd is directly accountable to the constituents they are there to serve and represent".

'Opinion polls can change'

Millar played down recent opinion polls which have suggested the Conservatives are in fourth place ahead of the next Senedd election.

"Opinion polls can change," he said. "We've seen that with elections in places like Canada. In a relatively short period of time, opinion polls changed dramatically."

Millar said his party had been good in the past at "pointing out" problems in Wales, but not "selling the solutions to the public".

"That is what will be different at the next election. We have credible solutions for the everyday problems that people face, and we are on their side."

Millar admitted that his party was paying a "penance" after "a turbulent period in British politics".

But he argued the situation for his party would change over time, with more of a focus on "the dreadful decisions which are harming Wales... by the Labour administration" in Cardiff.

"That is when you will begin to see a resurgence of people looking for common sense, centre-right politics," he said.

A devout Christian, Millar told the podcast he had a "political awakening" at the age of 15 when he joined the Conservative party, and a "spiritual awakening" shortly before he turned 18.

Millar has been involved in the work of Christian charities, and is currently chief executive of the Pocket Testament League, which the register of interests says he dedicates seven hours a week to.

The Welsh Conservative Senedd leader said he intended to stand down from the role once someone else can be found, and confirmed to the podcast that this will happen at the end of August.

"It is a responsibility that I felt I needed to give up," he said.

Sumo 'is the purest martial art'

In his personal life the Welsh Conservative Senedd leader enjoys stargazing - and is a fan of sumo wrestling.

Millar said he got into the sport when Channel 4 aired it in the 1990s, and that he was looking forward to seeing the Grand Sumo Tournament in the Royal Albert Hall this October.

"It's not like cricket, cricket takes three or four days to get a result. Sumo wrestling - there's a bout, and it's over in seconds," he said.

"I think there's something about the immediate gratification of a result like that.

"It is the oldest and the purest of the martial arts."