Brexit breakthrough won't change firms contingency plans

We got a concrete example of what no deal planning looks like this morning from the maker of Bisto and Mr Kiplings cakes, Premier Foods, who said they intended to start stockpiling raw ingredients and packaging for some of their products in case there is disruption to their supply chains.

The company said that would bring forward £10m of upfront costs.

When I asked whether they would be changing that approach based on this afternoon's news that a technical agreement had been reached,

I was told no - as it has not yet been agreed by the cabinet, by parliament or the 27 other member nations.

Without that, there is no withdrawal agreement - and without that - there is no transition period - that 19 month (possibly longer) period where our trading relationship stays much as it is now while new future trade arrangements are hammered out.

It's important to appreciate how precious business consider the prize of that breathing space.

No 'blank cheque'

Business leaders will be going to Number 10 to be briefed tomorrow.

The government will be lobbying them hard to get behind the agreement but business groups have rejected claims by some pro-remain politicians that they are prepared to back any deal rather than face the disruption of no deal.

As one executive told me "we expect Number 10 to press us hard to support their plans but we are not going to write a blank cheque to the government".

Is this progress? Yes.

But not a single business I've spoken to - aircraft manufacturers, cars, financial services, and as we have seen food companies - said today's news changes their contingency planning.