How worried should we be about rising mortgage rates?
- Published
Government borrowing costs - which directly impact mortgage rates - have risen to their highest rate since last September when the Liz Truss mini-budget sparked days of turmoil on the financial markets.
The market interest rate for the UK government to borrow money over two years is now effectively higher than it reached in the aftermath of that mini-budget. It is also the highest level for a decade and a half and now clearly higher than seen for the US government.
The fact that this is not the same market panic as last autumn will come as little respite to many people renewing their mortgages.
All this reflects market expectations that the UK has a specific problem with stubborn and sticky inflation that will require higher interest rates for longer. Some market bets now see a half percentage point rate rise next week, and rates settling closer to 6% than 5% at the end of the year.
There is an important difference to the mini-budget aftermath. The moves are being seen mainly in short-term rates. The real problem last autumn was for longer term 10- and 30-year borrowing, which saw significant moves in yields, the result of a loss of market confidence in the then government's tax and spend plans. Current rates for such long-term borrowing are still well below that market panic.
Today's move is more like a steady squeeze as the markets come to terms with the idea of the Bank of England keeping rates higher for longer had been expected, and above rates seen in similar economies.
It will be no less problematic for some homeowners. The two-year rate forms the floor for two-year fixed-rate mortgage borrowing. There has been a deluge of mortgage repricing, with particular pressure on landlords. This comes as a hump of two-year mortgage deals from 2021 - at the time of the expiry of the pandemic stamp duty holiday - come up for renewal at much higher rates.
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- Published13 June 2023
- Published13 June 2023