Summary

  • FTSE 100 falls 0.25% but FTSE 250 ends higher

  • Pound jumps against dollar and euro

  • Bank of England holds interest rates at 0.5%

  • Theresa May shakes up Business Department

  1. New Chancellor Hammond says 'no emergency budget'published at 07:14 British Summer Time 14 July 2016

    Philip HammondImage source, Getty Images

    New Chancellor Philip Hammond has said the country does not need an emergency budget and he will instead monitor the economic situation over the summer before setting out spending targets in the autumn.

    "There's a lot of work now to do," he told Sky News. "The Prime Minister made clear we will do an autumn statement in the usual way in the autumn and we'll look carefully over the summer at the situation.

    "I'm seeing the governor of the Bank of England this morning and we'll take stock of where we are."

  2. 'Pull back' in housing marketpublished at 07:03 British Summer Time 14 July 2016

    Today Programme
    BBC Radio 4

    For sale signsImage source, Getty Images

    More on that monthly survey by members of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, which shows that levels of activity in the housing market - enquiries by new buyers and agreed sales - fell sharply in June.   

    Rics chief economist Simon Rubinsohn is on Toda,y and says there's been quite a "pull back" in buyer enquiries, which began in April, and there's also been a retreat in the number of properties coming onto the market. 

    He points out that "uncertainty is no friend of the market".

    However, he adds: "I think it's important that the finance is there. If you go back to the credit crunch the finance wasn't there to support transactions.

    "This time round banks are better capitalised, last week's measure from the Bank of England is providing greater capacity for lending, but ultimately confidence is critical and if it's not there people won't make those big purchases." 

    Here on Business Live we reckon that word confidence is likely to pop up a lot in the coming weeks and months...

  3. 'All the forecasts are gone, they were too optimistic'published at 07:02 British Summer Time 14 July 2016

    BBC Radio 5 Live

    Former Monetary Policy Committee member Danny Blanchflower says Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has had to signal a rates cut to steady the markets, but also to say "all the forecasts we made before are gone, they were too optimistic, with this enhanced uncertainty, we really have to do things."

    He adds: "They [the MPC] are going to be watching the data and trying to think what's coming, but this is really very serious."

  4. Has Mark Carney pre-empted the rates decision?published at 06:54 British Summer Time 14 July 2016

    BBC Radio 5 Live

    Governor of the Bank of England Mark CarneyImage source, Getty Images

    Former MPC member Danny Blanchflower says Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has pre-empted the rates decision today "a little bit".

    "He's really been the only person, essentially, running economic policy, you might even say running the country for the last ten days or so, so yes, to some extent he has signalled it, but the reason for doing that was to really calm nerves and say: 'We're on top of this, we're looking at it'", Mr Blanchflower says. 

  5. 'Will rates be cut by a quarter, or a half?'published at 06:46 British Summer Time 14 July 2016

    BBC Radio 5 Live

    The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meets today, and David 'Danny' Blanchflower, who used to sit on the Committee, is expecting a rate cut today.

    "It has more or less been signalled by the Governor [Mark Carney]" he says. "Essentially they'll sit in that meeting and they'll know that the markets are expecting it, so if they don't do it that would be a surprise, and would generate some market reaction. But yes, I think they are going to go, the question will be - will they go by a quarter, or a half?"

  6. Rate cut will 'boost confidence'published at 06:37 British Summer Time 14 July 2016

    Today Programme
    BBC Radio 4

    Bank of England exteriorImage source, Getty Images

    Martin Beck of the EY Item Club, which uses the same economic model as the Treasury, reckons today is the day when rates will be cut to 0.25%.

    Business presenter Dominic O'Connell asks if a 0.25% cut will actually make any difference.

    "It won't make a huge amount of difference," Mr Beck concedes. But rate cutting doesn't just work by making mortgages cheaper, it's also about weakening the pound and making people feel wealthier. 

    It boosts confidence, he adds, and increases the expectation that the Bank of England can actually do something to boost the economy.

    But, asks Dominic, has Mr Carney overstepped the mark by hinting ahead of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting that rates might be cut?

    No, thinks Mr Beck.

    The surprise of the vote to leave the EU meant it was important someone of "stature" came out to boost the economy, and Mr Carney probably does carry more weight that other MPC members, he reckons.  

  7. Government 'killed small house-builder market'published at 06:23 British Summer Time 14 July 2016

    BBC Radio 5 Live

    So why is there such a shortage of housing stock? Estate agent Simon Gerrard says that at the start of the banking crisis property was being built by small, medium-sized, and large firms - but that situation has changed.

    "The government unfortunately killed the small and medium-sized market during the banking crisis, and that's not really recovered," Mr Gerrard says. "There's only so much supply that the large investors can put into the melting pot." 

    He adds that the government is now doing the same to small buy-to-let investors with a stamp duty increase. "It means you are only relying on corporates for the supply of rental property to the market, and on that basis you have a dirth of supply, and rents will only spiral."

  8. 'Housing demand still outstrips supply after the Brexit vote'published at 06:18 British Summer Time 14 July 2016

    BBC Radio 5 Live

    For sale signImage source, PA

    According to surveyors, UK housing buyer demand hit an eight-year low as Brexit was confirmed.

    But is there much to worry about? Simon Gerrard, managing director of Martyn Gerrard estate agents, thinks not.

    "I don't think the problem is anywhere near as bad as is spelled out," he says. "There is a shortage of stock, the number of people who have been looking to buy during June did fall, that was mainly due to the uncertainty over the Brexit situation, which came to a head at the end of June. These figures, obviously, are measuring June. You've now got a situation where it was a surprise result. That said, people are still looking to buy homes, it's not just about investment... There are still considerably more buyers looking than there is supply, and that is the main point... I don't really believe that house prices are going to fall."

  9. Faultline between May and Hammond fiscal stance?published at 06:10 British Summer Time 14 July 2016

    BBC Radio 5 Live

    On the UK economy, is there going to be a faultline between the stance of Mrs May, who doesn't appear to be so keen on austerity, and Mr Hammond, who is at the hawkish end of the scale?

    Tom Stevenson of Fidelity says: "It will be interesting to see how he starts to talk about the need for bringing down budget deficit."

  10. Hammond a 'supremely safe pair of hands' as Chancellorpublished at 06:07 British Summer Time 14 July 2016

    BBC Radio 5 Live

    New Chancellor Philip HammondImage source, Getty Images

    You may have heard that the UK has a new Prime Minister, and that she has appointed some of her cabinet, including Philip Hammond (pictured) as Chancellor and Boris Johnson as Foreign Secretary.

    Tom Stevenson, investment director at Fidelity Worldwide Investment, says Mr Johnson "is not a safe choice at all", but that the Treasury has a "supremely safe pair of hands" in Mr Hammond, "and that's exactly what we need at the moment."

  11. Good morningpublished at 6:00 am

    Could a rate cut be on the cards today, or will the Bank of England wait a bit longer to see the effects of Brexit before making any decision on monetary policy? We'll find out later.

    We've also got results out from Mothercare, Halfords, Supergroup, and Experian.

    And surveyors have said house prices are expected to fall in the next three months.