Summary

  • Get in touch: bizlivepage@bbc.co.uk

  • Dollar and Dow Jones end the day lower

  • Actress paying the Queen paid less than Prince Philip

  • Government floats idea of abolishing 1p and 2p coins

  • Chancellor signals stronger growth in Spring Statement

  • OBR revises 2018 GDP forecast upwards, from 1.4% to 1.5%

  • Government borrowing expected to decrease

  • Inflation predicted to fall 'back to target' by 2019

  • Labour warns of further austerity

  1. What about wages?published at 17:11 Greenwich Mean Time 13 March 2018

    Lab technicians at workImage source, Getty Images

    Philip Hammond mentioned real wages beginning to grow again in early 2019.

    The IFS are unpicking the numbers for the longer term.

    Quote Message

    Despite a very marginal upgrade to the forecast for earnings growth today, real average earnings are now expected to grow by just 3.5% over the next five years, meaning their level in 2022-23 would be similar to 2007-08."

    Robert Joyce, Associate Director

    And he adds that the freeze on working-age benefits means we're looking at "a further period of weak growth in the living standards of working age households."

  2. IFS: growth forecasts 'dreadful'published at 16:53 Greenwich Mean Time 13 March 2018

    The Institute for Fiscal Studies has given its initial response to the Spring Statement, external.

    But it can also be summed up with a glance at the tweets from the Institute's director Paul Johnson.

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  3. OBR: productivity uptick 'looks a little fishy'published at 16:39 Greenwich Mean Time 13 March 2018

    Charlie BeanImage source, Getty Images

    The OBR does not believe the recent surge in productivity will last.

    Sir Charlie Bean, a former Bank of England official who sits on the OBR’s Budget Responsibility Committee, explains why.

    He says the recent improvement in productivity growth was triggered by a fall in hours worked. Therefore a sustained improvement “looks a little fishy."

    But he says the main problem is how hard it is to tease out meaningful information from all the "noise" when it comes to this kind of economic analysis.

    “One would need a much longer run of data to be confident that productivity has picked up in a sustainable way.”

  4. Not much copperpublished at 16:17 Greenwich Mean Time 13 March 2018

    2p and 1p coinsImage source, Getty Images

    One of the consultations in the Spring Statement is looking into cash and digital payments in the new economy and it says the Treasury is considering withdrawing the 2p and 1p pieces as well as the largest note the £50.

    "The writing looks to be on the wall for 1ps and 2ps," says Sarah Coles, at Hargreaves Lansdown.

    "When it costs more to produce and distribute a coin than the coin itself is worth, governments tend to decide it’s a spent force."

    Time to go empty out that jar of coppers on the kitchen shelf.

    As for the £50 there is a perception that they're used for money laundering and there are no plans to produce a plastic version.

  5. 'Inching towards' a tech tax planpublished at 16:09 Greenwich Mean Time 13 March 2018

    Google officeImage source, Reuters

    Stella Amiss, head of tax policy at PwC, isn't overwhelmed by the chancellor's proposals for doing something on the tech giants' tax bills.

    She says the government is "inching towards" some new form of tax while not giving any details.

    “On the one hand the Government says international agreement is essential, but the raft of options published today suggest there is a way to go if the government is to avoid confusion, double taxation and undermining the Chancellor's ambition to deliver an open and outward looking economy.

    “The chancellor has reiterated that a short-term measure, likely to be tax on revenues, will be needed pending an agreement on the long-term solution.”

  6. Too Eeyore-ish?published at 15:55 Greenwich Mean Time 13 March 2018

    Is the OBR too gloomy in its forecasts?

    It predicts growth of 1.5% this year and 1.3% in 2019.

    A compilation of forecasts from economists in the City as well as academics predicts the economy will grow by 1.5% this year and next.

    Mr Chote insists that the OBR’s predictions are a “central forecast” and that there is “a 50% chance things could turn out better or worse.”

  7. Why isn't this year's borrowing even lower?published at 15:40 Greenwich Mean Time 13 March 2018

    OBR chairman Robert Chote has more to say on the lower-than-expected borrowing figure for this year.

    While it came in at £45.2bn - down from November's prediction of £49.9bn - analysts were expecting it to be even lower.

    So why isn’t it?

    The OBR believes projected under-spending by local councils is less than the Office for National Statistics currently forecasts.

    It also thinks tax revenues outside those received from employed workers will be slightly weaker, and believes that the UK will pay around £800m more to the EU before the end of this financial year in budget payments.

  8. More tax coming in from the self-employedpublished at 15:30 Greenwich Mean Time 13 March 2018

    Robert ChoteImage source, PA

    Chairman Robert Chote is talking the press through today's forecasts from the OBR.

    He says we're borrowing less than forecast this year thanks to more tax coming in from self-employed workers - revenues are £2.9bn higher than predicted.

    However, he adds: “we don’t expect much of that good news to push forward into future years”.

    Why not? Some self-employed workers shifted dividend income forward to avoid a tax increase. But the impact of that will run out.

    Mr Chote adds that capital gains tax receipts are £1bn lower than expected. The recent turmoil on financial markets is also expected to have an effect on future revenues.

  9. Just to be clear...published at 15:18 Greenwich Mean Time 13 March 2018

    Debt is falling... not in nominal terms, of course, in pounds and pence it continues to rise. But, as BBC's Reality Check explains, as a percentage of the national economy its getting smaller - which most people consider is the most sensible way to measure how much of a burden it places on a growing economy.

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  10. Changes to UK's borrowing forecastspublished at 14:58 Greenwich Mean Time 13 March 2018

    Borrowing forecasts paint a more optimistic picture than the one we were looking at last November, though bear little relation to last spring's outlook for the years 2019 -21.

    Graph of net public sector borrowing
  11. Predictions for UK growthpublished at 14:56 Greenwich Mean Time 13 March 2018

    This graph illustrates pretty neatly how forecasts for growth in the longer term have become more pessimistic over the last year.

    Graph of UK growth predictions
  12. To sum up....published at 14:54 Greenwich Mean Time 13 March 2018

    The chancellor - as promised - didn't make any big policy pronouncements.

    He did give us the OBR's latest forecasts showing:

    • growth is likely to be higher this year than they suggested in November
    • borrowing will be lower than they predicted in November

    And he launched consultations on several matters including:

    • how tech giants are taxed
    • how to discourage plastics that are non-recyclable
    • encouraging the use of less polluting delivery vans
    • measures to end late payments for firms
  13. How much is the Brexit 'divorce bill'?published at 14:35 Greenwich Mean Time 13 March 2018

    Analysis

    Chris Morris
    BBC Reality Check

    Assumed annual path of EU financial settlement paymentsImage source, OBR

    The OBR estimate that the Brexit financial settlement (or ‘divorce bill’) will be £37.1bn falls right in the middle of the £35bn-£39bn range presented by the Treasury in December.

    Most of the money will be paid out in the first five years after Brexit, but the OBR forecasts that smaller payments will have to be made until at least 2064.

    The OBR emphasises that there are numerous uncertainties surrounding any estimate of the size of the bill.

    It will have to be paid in euros, so the exchange rate is a significant factor.

    It also depends on assumptions of how long pension liabilities will last, and of the percentage of proposed EU spending projects that may be cancelled in the future.

    Finally, the estimate assumes that a transition period after Brexit ends on December 31st 2020, which coincides with the end of the EU’s current seven-year budget period.

    If the transition were to be extended, the EU would be looking for further financial contributions from the UK.

  14. Late payments 'deserve government's attention'published at 14:23 Greenwich Mean Time 13 March 2018

    Commenting on plans announced in the Spring Statement to tackle late payers, Adam Marshall, director general of The British Chambers of Commerce, said:

    "Affected firms are often unwilling to jeopardise customer relationships by calling out bad practice. The government must use its convening power to tackle this issue in sectors where it is clear that problems exist.

    "Changing payment terms mid-contract, and burying payment terms in the small print when suppliers register for business, are issues that deserve ministers’ attention.

  15. Why so cheery?published at 14:09 Greenwich Mean Time 13 March 2018

    Chancellor Philip Hammond predicted a bright future for the UK in his first Spring Statement - but why was he in such an upbeat and jovial mood? Read our full write up.

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  16. Stamp Duty relief will cost a fifth more...published at 13:56 Greenwich Mean Time 13 March 2018

    BBC Personal Finance correspondent Kevin Peachey tweets...

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  17. Spring Statement - 'Little to cheer'published at 13:53 Greenwich Mean Time 13 March 2018

    Aberdeen Standard Investments chief economist Lucy O’Carroll has commented on the Spring Statement:

    Quote Message

    There is little to cheer by way of economic progress. A woeful growth outlook by past standards. Potentially massive dislocation for the economy just around the corner. And all subject to huge, Brexit-related uncertainties.

  18. Stamp Duty relief could cost £1bnpublished at 13:50 Greenwich Mean Time 13 March 2018

    HomesImage source, Getty Images

    Bean counters at accountants Blick Rothenburg have worked out that the Stamp Duty tax relief could cost the government £1bn in the first year.

    Partner Nimesh Shah said: "Based on the Chancellor’s claim that 60,000 people have benefited, it means the relief has cost the Treasury up to £300m in just under four months. At that rate, it will cost the Treasury close to £1bn in the first year."

  19. UK to remain in 'slow lane' of global growth - PwCpublished at 13:45 Greenwich Mean Time 13 March 2018

    London financial districtImage source, Getty Images

    Despite its revised projections, the OBR expects the UK economy to remain in the "slow lane of global growth for some time to come", says John Hawksworth, chief economist at PwC.

    "In particular, the OBR has stuck to its view that productivity growth will remain relatively subdued over the next five years.

    "While noting the surprisingly strong growth in output per hour during the second half of 2017, they have put this down to a potentially erratic decline in average hours worked rather than any increase in output growth.

    "As such, they remain sceptical that this better productivity growth trend will persist or translate into higher GDP growth going forward."

  20. Fallible forecasts?published at 13:39 Greenwich Mean Time 13 March 2018

    Ian Stewart, chief economist at Deloitte, said the revised OBR growth forecasts put the UK in a better position "to face the moment of truth on Brexit". But he added:

    Quote Message

    We should not get carried away. These forecasts are likely to be no less fallible than earlier ones and, despite an improving trend in public borrowing, the burden of debt in the UK is still at its highest in over 50 years.