Image source, ONS

"Despite the rebound in monthly GDP in May, the economy may have contracted in Q2 as a whole. But it’s going to be close and we doubt we’re heading for a recession as GDP will probably rise in Q3 anyway".

That's the view of Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics who has been looking at that data showing the economy grew by 0.3% in May.

"We suspect GDP probably fell in June... That would raise the risk of a recession (two consecutive quarterly contractions), but we’re not expecting one," he said.

This because the weakness in the second quarter was caused by shifting activity in to the first quarter ahead of the original Brexit deadline of 29 March, he said.

"Just as the GDP data for Q1 suggested the economy was stronger than it really was, the data for Q2 will suggest it’s weaker than it really is. As the truth lies somewhere in between, GDP will probably rise in Q3," he added.

Image source, Getty Images

Sterling has recovered slightly with the latest GDP figures, but will the effects last?

Neil Wilson, chief market analyst at Markets.com, thinks we need to consider the impact of the US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell.

"Traders need to be careful as Brexit uncertainty remains the major drag on sterling, whilst the dollar is showing some resilience and could be exposed to significant upside risks if Powell today disappoints the market by not being as dovish as investors hope," says Mr Wilson

"Whilst economic indicators matter clearly, the ongoing uncertainty about the direction of the British government over Brexit it what is really driving the pound. We need to await the outcome of the Tory leadership race.

"There is a chance that the pound could find some bargain hunters if they feel likely winner Boris Johnson will soften his views on a hard exit on October 31st once he is safely installed by the Tory party and facing the realities of Parliamentary arithmetic and EU negotiators.

"His hard Brexit pitch right now is clearly aimed at the membership, so we should be careful about believing it all. Realpolitik will hit."

Image source, Dunelm

According to Neil Wilson, chief market analyst for Markets.com, home furnishing retailer Dunelm is doing well because it is price-conscious.

"Dunelm continues to defy the broader retail malaise. Pricing is vital here," he said.

"People always need some soft furnishings; they just don’t necessarily want to pay a premium and Dunelm offers price-conscious consumers a lot of options on all of the essentials."

Dunelm has also seen its margins improve due to better sourcing and a lower level of end-of-season clearance sales, so Mr Wilson expects the retailer's shares to bounce back to highs seen in mid-June.

Faisal Islam
BBC Economics Editor

A return to work in car factories that shut down in preparation for a no-deal Brexit drove a return to growth in the economy in May of 0.3%. But that rise did not make up for all the fall in the previous month.

Monthly figures are volatile and should be taken with a pinch of salt, however against a backdrop of a marked softening in a slew of surveys of manufacturing, services and retail there is an indication of an economy stalling and possibly contracting in the second quarter that has just ended between April and June.

In the three months till May however, growth was higher than expected because of a better March than had been previously calculated.

The impact of stockpiling though can clearly be seen in the big economic figures.

Sterling has fallen over 5% in recent weeks against the world’s three major currencies on expectation of lower interest rates for longer, political uncertainty and rising expectations of No Deal Brexit.

Image source, Getty Images

Rob Kent-Smith, head of GDP at the Office of National Statistics, has this to say about the data for the three months to May.

"The economy returned to growth in the month of May, following the fall seen in April. This was mainly due to the partial recovery in car production.

"GDP grew moderately in the latest three months with IT, communications and retail showing strength. Despite this, there has been a longer-term slowdown in the often-dominant services sector since summer 2018."

The pound has ticked slightly higher after that GDP data showing the UK economy grew 0.3% in the three months to May.

But it remains at lows for the year.

Image source, Getty Images

According to the ONS, the UK's overall trade deficit decreased by £4.6bn to £12.6bn for the three months to May 2019, due mainly to the trade in goods deficit narrowing by £4.6bn to £39.7bn.

The trade deficit narrowed due to falling imports of transport equipment, machinery and chemicals, as well as increased exports of fuels.

Growth in imports of unspecified goods, which includes non-monetary gold, also slowed in the three months to May 2019.

Image source, PA Media

UK GDP grew by 0.3% in the three months to May 2019, according to the Office for National Statistics.

Image source, Getty Images

London shares are still treading water and are could be on course for a fourth straight day of losses, after consumer and pharmaceutical stocks dragged indexes down, amid fears the US Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates.

The FTSE 100 is now just 4.8 points or 0.06% ahead to 7,541.11, led by Just Eat, which is up 2% to 647.1p, recovering from a drop on Tuesday after Berenberg analysts downgraded its shares from "buy" to "hold" and slashed its price target from 880p to 600p.

The FTSE 250 meanwhile is 29.3 points or 0.2% lower at 19,438.04. Top of the losers is recruiter PageGroup, which dropped 14.7% to 430.4p after issuing a profit warning due to global economic uncertainty.

Today Programme
BBC Radio 4

Image source, Vype

As the number of people smoking cigarettes declines, British American Tobacco is focusing increasingly on e-cigarettes, the use of which has doubled in the last five years.

Leaked plans revealed the government hopes to eradicate smoking by 2030 and two hospitals in Birmingham have become the first to sell e-cigarettes on site.

But the US doesn't seem as keen. In June, San Francisco became the first city to ban the sale of vaping devices, and the US Department of Health & Human Services has said warned of a vaping epidemic amongst high school children.

Kingsley Wheaton, chief marketing officer and lead of British American Tobacco's "Transforming Tobacco" campaign, insists that the company is only marketing to adults, and that the UK has the second lowest smoking rates in Europe.

"We're going to have to wait longer for epidemiological evidence, but the Royal College of Physicians, Nice and even Ash agree that vaping is probably about 90% safer for people who smoke, and are unable to quit smoking," he told Today.

"If we forecast forward to 2030, we'll be very close to the government's target of 5%. We welcome talk of regulating cigarettes, but I think it's important to point out the government raises £10bn in tobacco taxes a year, and we urge the UK to invest some of those profits into research and education."

Asia markets were mixed on Wednesday.

Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 fell 0.2%.

In China, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was up 0.3% while the Shanghai Composite shed 0.4%.

Image source, Getty Images

Pub chain JD Wetherspoon says that in the 10 weeks to 7 July like-for-like sales - which strip out any changes to the number of pubs - increased by 6.9% and total sales increased by 6.6%.

The chairman of Wetherspoon, Tim Martin (pictured), has also provided his latest views on Brexit, saying: "The main issue for shareholders, which dominates debate, relates to the nature of the UK's post-Brexit relationship with the EU".

"The dichotomy between a 'no-deal' Brexit and a 'deal', as it is often portrayed in the media, politics and business, is highly misleading. The term no-deal really means 'multi-deal' - a multitude of deals agreed between individuals, businesses, governments and other organisations," said Mr Martin, who backed Brexit.

Image source, Getty Images

The FTSE 100 has opened little changed, down around 7 points at 7,529.45.

Sterling, which is heading for two year lows, is down a little against the dollar at $1.2451 as the Uk market opens.

Image source, Dunelm

Home furnishings company Dunelm says it expects full year pre-tax profit to be towards the upper end of the range of £124m to £126m.

Nick Wilkinson, Dunelm's chief executive, said: "Looking forward, as the UK's leading homewares specialist, we see significant opportunity for continued growth both from our stores and online, whilst maintaining our improved operational discipline.

"In the short-term, we remain cautious about the uncertain political climate and the impact it may have on consumer spending, but expect to make further progress in the year ahead and are confident about the group's longer-term prospects."

The company says that due to changes to tax legislation there will be a one-off cash tax payment in the 2020 financial year which will not affect its P&L.

Today Programme
BBC Radio 4

Image source, SOPA Images / Getty Images

More on those official GDP figures for May will be released later.

Rupert Harrison, portfolio manager at BlackRock and former chief advisor to the Treasury, expects the numbers to be close to zero.

"I do think the uncertainty impact is now progressing from chronic - since the Brexit referendum in 2016 - to the acute phase," he told Today.

"Increasingly businesses and the service sector are starting to face real challenges of planning ahead, and even some impact on consumer confidence."

But everything still depends on what happens with Brexit.

"There's nothing about the UK economy weakening from here - we've got a very strong market, we continue to have growth in employment, wages rising - the sort of underpinnings of the economy remain okay," he said.

"If we did get some resolution to this uncertainty, if we could suddenly see a path forward to orderly process, I think the economy could bounce back pretty strongly."

BBC Radio 5 Live
Wake Up To Money

Image source, Getty Images

UK GDP data for May is due later and economists polled by Reuters expect growth in the three-month period to be 0.1%.

That would be slower than the 0.5% rate seen in the first quarter of the year.

John Glen of Cranfield School of Management told Radio 5 Live's Wake Up To Money that the economy in the first quarter of the year had been influenced by Brexit, when there was a build up of goods ahead of the initial Brexit date.

"We flipped the economy in the first quarter because we built up lots of inventory [ahead of Brexit]".

Image source, Getty Images

Recruitment firm Page says operating profit is likely to be at the lower end of a £156.5m to £168m range.

"It is clear that macro-economic conditions in a number of our regions are becoming more challenging, and, as such, we currently expect 2019 operating profit to be towards the lower end of the range of current market forecast," said Kelvin Stagg, chief financial officer.

Image source, Getty Images

Earlier this year energy supplier Solarplicity was banned temporarily from taking on new customers due to its poor switching process and customer service.

At the time energy regulator Ofgem also banned the company from increasing vulnerable customers' direct debits.

Ofgem has issued another update on the compan, externaly today about its payments of outstanding money owed to Feed-in Tariff (FIT) generators.

It also warns that it could start the process of revoking its licence to operate if the situation does not improve.

And it is also refers to its issues with customers. "Solarplicity will provide Ofgem with weekly reports on its commitments to improve its performance... and has also agreed to not to take on new customers until 5 August 2019," Ofgem said.