Summary

  • The prime minister and chancellor are resisting pressure to publish an independent verdict of their tax-cutting plans before late November

  • Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng met the head of Britain's independent financial forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility, after days of market turmoil

  • The PM told the OBR she values their "scrutiny", the Treasury said, but will not publish their fresh forecast before more economic plans are set out in November

  • Earlier, the pound hit $1.12 against the dollar - close to its level before Friday's mini-budget

  • The government's announcement last week had led to a slump in the value of the pound and a £65bn intervention from the Bank of England

  • Meanwhile, energy prices will rise for millions from tomorrow - but the increase is being cushioned by a government cap on the cost of energy per unit

  1. Pound reverses earlier gainspublished at 13:48 British Summer Time 30 September 2022

    The pound is now trading at just over $1.10 after hitting more than $1.12 earlier on Friday.

    Financial markets initially appeared to be buoyed by Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng's meeting with the independent fiscal watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

    The Treasury initially refused the OBR's offer of economic forecasts to accompany last Friday mini-budget - a rejection which unnerved financial markets.

    Since this morning, sterling has ticked lower against the dollar.

    Both the OBR and the Treasury confirmed that the economic and fiscal forecasts will not be released before 23 November, when Kwarteng announces his fiscal plans.

    Some, including the chairman of the Treasury select committee, Mel Stride, had hoped the report would be published earlier.

  2. Treasury sticking to its timetable despite pressurepublished at 13:41 British Summer Time 30 September 2022

    Leila Nathoo
    Political correspondent

    The Treasury is sticking to its timetable of waiting until 23 November to publish independent economic forecasts from the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR).

    This is despite pressure from some Tory MPs who say it should be sooner to give the measures announced last Friday more credibility.

    But the thinking inside the Treasury is that last Friday’s range of tax cuts, and the energy bill support package, are only part of the picture.

    Still to come is a series of other so-called "supply side" measures to stimulate growth in eight areas to be announced over the coming weeks - business regulations, agriculture, housing and planning, immigration, mobile and broadband, financial services, childcare and energy.

    And then finally the chancellor will set out his medium term fiscal plans in November.

    Even though the Treasury will receive the OBR’s first draft forecast next Friday, that won’t be made public.

    And it will go through various iterations before the final forecast is published. That’s still a long way away for those who think it’s needed to validate the government’s plans.

  3. Independent economic forecast will not be brought forwardpublished at 13:34 British Summer Time 30 September 2022

    As we've been reporting, Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng have held an unusual meeting with the government's financial forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), following days of chaos in the currency and bond markets.

    But after the meeting, which lasted for about 45 minutes, it has become clear an OBR report on the effect of the government's tax-cutting plans will not be brought forward.

    Currently, the next forecast is due to be published on 23 November, when Kwarteng will lay out his medium-term fiscal plan and explain how the borrowing and tax cuts announced last week will be paid for in the future.

    But there has been pressure from backbench Tory MPs, Labour, economists and others for Kwarteng to release an OBR forecast earlier as a means of reassuring markets.

    Part of the loss of market confidence of recent days has been attributed to the government's refusal to publish an OBR report alongside the mini-budget last Friday.

  4. Your Questions Answered on energy bills coming uppublished at 13:19 British Summer Time 30 September 2022

    For anyone struggling to understand what's going on with the cost of energy right now, from 14:00 BST our personal finance correspondent Kevin Peachey will be answering readers' questions.

    Stick with us and we'll bring you his answers to some of the most pressing questions.

  5. Analysis

    Clean bill of health not guaranteed from watchdogpublished at 13:09 British Summer Time 30 September 2022

    Dharshini David
    Global trade correspondent

    The independent Office for Budget Responsibility exists to validate the government’s plans, to rubber stamp their impact.

    Publishing big strategies without that assessment is akin to splashing out on a big appliance without a guarantee. It inevitably undermines confidence, which in this case is the financial markets.

    But a post-dated emphasis on getting that assessment done doesn’t necessarily mean the government will get a clean bill of health. On top of the impact of the tax cuts, there’s the fallout from market turmoil on borrowing costs to factor in.

    Add in figures today which show the post-Covid economy is ultimately smaller than previously thought, and some analysts still warn the chancellor’s plans may not be tenable.

  6. What's been happening today?published at 12:54 British Summer Time 30 September 2022

    Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng steps outside 11 Downing Street in London, Britain, September 23, 2022Image source, Reuters
    Image caption,

    Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, along with the prime minister, met the head of the Office for Budget Responsibility earlier

    If you're just joining us or want to get up to speed, here's a recap of the main political and economic developments today:

    • Prime Minister Liz Truss and Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng met the head of the Office for Budget Responsibility this morning and agreed to work closely together, in a move widely seen as an attempt to reassure financial markets following a week of turmoil
    • Following the meeting with the fiscal watchdog, the Treasury said the chancellor was sticking to his timetable of setting out his medium-term fiscal plan on 23 November
    • The OBR confirmed it will deliver the first draft of its economic and fiscal forecasts on 7 October, as planned
    • The pound hit $1.12 against the dollar this morning, returning close to the same level the currency was at before the mini-budget on Friday, before dropping back
    • The UK's economy grew in the second quarter of this year, contrary to an initial estimate of a small contraction, according to revised official data
    • Andrew Griffith, financial secretary to the Treasury, insisted recent market turmoil had been a “largely global phenomenon” - a view a number of economists reject
    • Benefits may not rise in line with inflation, as promised under Liz Truss's predecessor Boris Johnson's government, according to a report in The Times, external
  7. Government letting economy 'fly blind' for two months - Lib Dem leaderpublished at 12:32 British Summer Time 30 September 2022

    Ed DaveyImage source, PA Media

    Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey has accused the government of leaving the economy to "fly blind" for two months by waiting until November until it provides more detail on its plans for the economy.

    Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng has said he will set out his medium-term fiscal plan on 23 November and that this will be accompanied by an economic forecast produced by the Office for Budget Responsibility.

    However, Davey wants the government to move this date forward, arguing: “Families and businesses can’t afford to wait any longer for this government to fix their botched, unfair budget."

    He accuses Prime Minister Liz Truss and Kwarteng of allowing the economy "to fly blind for two months".

  8. Consumers already taking action to save on energy costspublished at 12:13 British Summer Time 30 September 2022

    Kevin Peachey
    Personal finance correspondent

    At the heart of much of the economic debate in recent days and weeks is the fact that prices are rising at about 10% a year, and that is affecting everyone.

    While authorities, politicians and economists quite correctly discuss the policies needed to deal with that, consumers are taking their own action.

    Figures from a survey conducted by the consumer group Which? suggest that 58% of those asked said they had already cut their use of lights and appliances.

    More than four in 10 had reduced their hot water consumption, including taking fewer and shorter showers.

    Meanwhile, the BBC has some hints and tips on how to save energy, and therefore pounds, below.

    Media caption,

    Cost of living tips: How to cut energy and heating costs in your home

  9. Timing of Truss's growth plan 'hopelessly wrong' - Tory MPpublished at 12:04 British Summer Time 30 September 2022

    Peter Aldous
    Image caption,

    Not raising benefits in line with inflation would be "calamitous", Peter Aldous says

    A Conservative backbencher has said the government’s growth plan was “ill advised” and that the timing was “hopelessly wrong”.

    Peter Aldous, who represents the Waveney constituency, tells BBC Radio Suffolk the government should have worked with the Bank of England and the OBR before delivering its growth plan to ensure it was “carefully thought through”.

    He argues that while immediate action was needed to tackle the high cost of energy bills, a lot of the tax changes announced in Friday's mini-budget “probably didn’t need to be made now”.

    He also says the chancellor's planned statement to further outline the government's plans cannot wait until 23 November and should be brought forward to October.

    Earlier this week, Treasury ministers avoided saying whether benefits would rise in line with inflation. Aldous says not doing this would be "calamitous".

  10. We value your scrutiny, Truss and Kwarteng tell watchdogpublished at 11:51 British Summer Time 30 September 2022

    The Treasury has just published a readout of the meeting between Prime Minister Liz Truss, Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng and the Office for Budget Responsibility this morning.

    The statement says: "They discussed the process for the upcoming economic and fiscal forecast, which will be published on 23 November, and the economic and fiscal outlook."

    The Treasury adds: "They agreed, as is usual, to work closely together throughout the forecast process and beyond.

    "The prime minister and chancellor reaffirmed their commitment to the independent OBR and made clear that they value its scrutiny."

    An OBR forecast was not published alongside the mini-budget on Friday, despite the watchdog saying it would have been able to prepare one in time.

    Earlier, Treasury minister Andrew Griffith insisted there had been a "huge amount to digest" in the government's plans "the OBR couldn't have taken into account".

  11. Failure to raise benefits in line with inflation will concern some Toriespublished at 11:39 British Summer Time 30 September 2022

    Leila Nathoo
    BBC political correspondent

    Speculation that benefits may not now increase in line with inflation - as was promised by the previous Chancellor Rishi Sunak - will worry some Tory MPs already concerned about how the mini-budget has landed.

    It’s clear the government isn’t considering rowing back on the package of tax cuts, and ministers have already said they’re looking for departmental efficiencies as a way of making savings.

    Tory MPs have already questioned the political wisdom of the chancellor abolishing the additional 45p tax rate for the highest earners and the cap on bankers bonuses when there was no major clamour, even from those who would benefit, for that to happen.

    The idea that the Tories would then be having to sell a real-terms benefit cut to pay for that - in the run up to a general election - might be a step too far for some.

  12. Budget watchdog to deliver financial forecast draft next weekpublished at 11:18 British Summer Time 30 September 2022

    Following its meeting with prime minister and the chancellor, the Office for Budget Responsibility confirms it will deliver the first draft of its economic and fiscal forecasts a week from today, on 7 October.

    "The forecast will, as always, be based on our independent judgment about economic and fiscal prospects and the impact of the government’s policies," the watchdog says.

    The OBR will also set out its timetable leading up to 23 November, when Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng is due to set out his medium-term fiscal plan.

  13. Analysis

    Why PM's meeting with Budget watchdog is unusualpublished at 11:08 British Summer Time 30 September 2022

    Dearbail Jordan
    Business reporter

    It cannot be overstated how unusual it is for a prime minister to meet the Office for Budget Responsibility.

    The independent fiscal watchdog keeps records of the contact it has with ministers, external and government departments.

    A quick scan shows that contact is predominantly via email and with the Treasury.

    Liz Truss met the watchdog's chairman Richard Hughes at Downing Street alongside her Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng.

    Many view the move as an attempt to regain credibility with the financial markets after a torrid week for Truss, who has been in her job for just over three weeks.

    During the Tory leadership campaign, Truss spoke scathingly of a culture of "abacus economics" in the UK she argued had limited economic growth.

    But, as our economics editor Faisal Islam points out, the "bean counters" are striking back.

  14. Budget watchdog team leave Downing Street after 45 minutespublished at 10:52 British Summer Time 30 September 2022

    Members of the Office for Budget Responsibility have just been spotted leaving No 11 Downing Street - the chancellor's official residence - 45 minutes after they arrived.

    They were meeting Prime Minister Liz Truss and Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng to discuss the economic turmoil after last week's mini-budget.

    OBR chairman Richard Hughes, along with committee members Andy King and Professor David Miles, were seen leaving Downing Street at 10:33 - they arrived at about 09:45.

  15. Former chancellor welcomes U-turn on watchdog meetingpublished at 10:45 British Summer Time 30 September 2022

    George Osborne served as Chancellor of the Exchequer from 2010 to 2016Image source, PA Media

    Former Conservative chancellor George Osborne says it's a “welcome move” that Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng are meeting the independent watchdog for the government's finances.

    The prime minister and the chancellor are meeting the chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility to discuss the fallout after last week's mini-budget.

    Osborne, who oversaw the creation of the watchdog in 2010, tweets, external: “In the space of one week we’ve gone from the OBR being dismissed to the PM turning up to its meetings.

    “Turns out the credibility of the institution we created 12 years ago to bring honesty to the public finances is more enduring than that of its critics.”

  16. Watchdog meeting easing market fears, analyst sayspublished at 10:37 British Summer Time 30 September 2022

    This morning the pound has rallied to levels it was last at before the mini-budget on Friday.

    Tapas Strickland, head of market economics at National Australia Bank, suggested this recovery could be linked to today's meeting between the prime minister and chancellor and the Office for Budget Responsibility.

    He says the meeting was "alleviating fears within the markets of the so-far un-costed fiscal package".

    But Chris Turner, head of markets at banking group ING, says the government "still has to find a way to balance the books and avoid a very negative assessment from the rating agencies".

    He adds: "A Conservative Party conference this weekend suggests it is far too early for a u-turn on fiscal policy and, combined with a very difficult external environment, sterling should stay vulnerable."

  17. Head of Budget watchdog pictured entering No 11published at 10:31 British Summer Time 30 September 2022

    Richard Hughes, Professor David Miles and Andy King from the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) arriving at 10 Downing Street, London, for a meeting with Prime Minister Liz Truss and Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng amid market turmoil following last week's mini-budgetImage source, PA Media

    As we've been reporting, Prime Minister Liz Truss and Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng are due to meet members of the UK's independent economic forecaster after days of market turmoil.

    Members of the Office for Budget Responsibility committee were seen entering Number 11 Downing Street a short time ago.

    OBR chairman Richard Hughes along with committee members, Andy King and Prof David Miles were seen in the picture.

    In an unusual move, the prime minister, chancellor and OBR will discuss the fallout after last week's mini-budget.

  18. Pound close to pre mini-budget levelspublished at 10:20 British Summer Time 30 September 2022

    Pound v dollar

    The pound hit $1.12 against the dollar this morning, returning close to the same level the currency was at before the mini-budget on Friday.

    It comes after official data released earlier today showed the UK is not in recession, as had been previously thought.

    That means that sterling has swung back from a low of $1.03 on Monday, after Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng pledged there were "more" tax cuts to come on top of a £45bn package announced last week.

  19. Government made mistake of 'rubbishing' Bank, former deputy governor sayspublished at 10:03 British Summer Time 30 September 2022

    The government made a number of mistakes in the run-up to its mini-budget on Friday, including "rubbishing" the Bank of England, a former deputy governor of the Bank has told the BBC.

    Sir Charles Bean, a professor at the London School of Economics and former committee member at the economic forecaster the Office for Budget Responsibility, said: "It's not just the contents of last week's fiscal event but also the apparent downplaying and degrading of the surrounding institutional context.

    "So there's been rubbishing of the Bank and an attempt to blame it for letting inflation rise so much, and clearly that's mainly driven by what's happening in Ukraine."

    The mini-budget and the fall-out from it has damaged the government's credibility, Bean added.

  20. Why should you take a meter reading?published at 09:42 British Summer Time 30 September 2022

    An outdoor energy meterImage source, PA Media

    On 1 October, the annual energy bill for a typical household will rise from £1,971 to £2,500 - a 27% increase.

    Submitting accurate meter readings means providers won't accidentally charge you at the higher rate for your earlier energy use.

    Energy UK, representing suppliers, said most firms will accept readings for a few days either side of 1 October.

    Get the answers to more of your questions here.