Summary

  • The Bank of England has held the base interest rate at 5.25%

  • The Bank's Governor Andrew Bailey says rates "will have to remain where they are now for an extended period"

  • And he says "we will be watching [inflation] closely to see if further increases in interest rates are needed"

  • Alongside the interest rate decision, the Bank has downgraded growth forecasts for the UK economy

  • It expects growth of 0.6% in each of the last two quarters of 2023 compared to a year earlier

  • But it says growth will fall in the first quarter of next year to 0.2%, and then onto 0.0% in the second quarter and beyond

  • The Bank kept interest rates on hold in September after making 14 consecutive rises since the end of 2021

  1. Thanks for joining uspublished at 14:40 Greenwich Mean Time 2 November 2023

    Emily McGarvey
    Live reporter

    That brings our live coverage of today's interest rates decision to a close, but there's plenty more for you to read to find out more:

    • To read our business team's run down of the Bank's decision to keep rates at 5.25%, look here
    • To find out why the UK's inflation is so high, click here
    • And to read about how the Bank of England's decision affects you and your money, go here

    Today's live page was written by Michael Race, Malu Cursino, Dearbail Jordan, and edited by myself.

  2. Here's what you need to know from todaypublished at 14:35 Greenwich Mean Time 2 November 2023

    Michael Race
    Business reporter

    • As expected, the Bank of England decided to hold its base interest rate, which influences the rates set by High Street banks, at 5.25% for the second time in a row
    • The Bank's policymakers say the decision is due to expectations that inflation, the pace of price rises for consumer goods such as energy and food, to fall sharply in the coming months
    • But that doesn't mean interest rates will come anytime soon, with the governor Andrew Bailey warning they will stay higher for longer
    • While there was good news in that inflation is predicted to fall sharply, the Bank has warned that UK economic growth will flatline, with zero growth in 2024
    • We also learned that the Bank thinks the conflict between Israel and Hamas is creating economic uncertainty, with Bailey warning there was a risk energy prices could rise once again
  3. Watch: Labour's Reeves says working people paying the pricepublished at 14:29 Greenwich Mean Time 2 November 2023

    Media caption,

    Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves reacts to interest rates decision

    Labour's shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said today's forecasts from the Bank of England showed that working people are "paying the price" because she said the "Conservatives have failed on the economy".

  4. How do interest rates affect me?published at 14:23 Greenwich Mean Time 2 November 2023

    Michael Race
    Business reporter

    The Bank of England has held interest rates for a second time in a row following a run of 14 consecutive increases. Here's how interest rates can affect you:

    • Mortgages: Just under a third of UK households have a mortgage, and when interest rates rise or fall, those with variable or tracker mortgages usually see an immediate change in their monthly payments. First-buyers will also be met with higher mortgage deal rates, along with homeowners with fixed deals coming to an end
    • Credit cards and loans: Unless interest repayments are fixed on credit cards and loans, borrowers can expect to see rises in the fees charged
    • Savings: While borrowing money will cost more due to higher rates, savers should get higher returns. Analysts say that customers should shop around for the best deals. Banks and building societies have been under pressure to pass on higher interest rate rises to customers, after concerns that interest on savings were not rising as fast as those on mortgages

    To read more about how the Bank of England's decision affects you and your money, click here.

  5. ‘I’ve taken on an extra job to pay the mortgage’published at 14:18 Greenwich Mean Time 2 November 2023

    Colletta Smith
    Cost of living correspondent

    Paul and Sonia

    Paul and Sonia live in Taunton with their six children and can’t believe how much their lives have changed since interest rates started to rise.

    “I have to decide, do I pay the credit card this month? Or do I pay the loan this month? Because if I do then I can’t pay the mortgage,” Paul tells me.

    A couple of years ago, they were paying around £700 a month on their mortgage. But their fixed rate ended as mortgage rates spiked, so they rolled onto a tracker.

    “We took the decision to ride it out,” explains Paul. “But the last rise took our mortgage to £2,003 per month which is almost debilitating”.

    Sonia has taken on an extra job in a care home just to pay the mortgage increase. She wells up as she tells me it’s been tough for everyone, and Paul explains: “12-hour shifts including Saturdays and Sundays - it's a real change to our family life.”

    Watch Panorama: The big mortgage squeeze.

  6. Expect high interest rates for some time - economics fellowpublished at 14:16 Greenwich Mean Time 2 November 2023

    "We can expect to be in a relatively high interest rate environment for some time," Dr Anna Valero tells BBC Radio 4's World at One programme.

    Dr Valero, who is a fellow at the London School of Economics and a member of the Chancellor's economic advisory council, says "we're in this really precarious place".

    That's because, she explains, inflation is persisting and the outlook for the economy is "pretty weak".

    The underlying weakness for the UK economy, Dr Valero says, is "this longstanding productivity crisis" where productivity has "barely grown since the financial crisis".

  7. Pain paused doesn't mean pain avertedpublished at 14:07 Greenwich Mean Time 2 November 2023

    Kevin Peachey
    Cost of living correspondent

    Even if interest rates don't move for a few months, there is still a pinch coming for an awful lot of borrowers.

    That's part of the considerations when policymakers set rates: previous increases take time to filter through to our financial decisions.

    For example, there are 1.6 million homeowners rolling off their fixed rate mortgage deals next year. Only then will they face the reality of monthly repayments that could be hundreds of pounds higher.

    And it is only then that they may have to make decisions like cutting back on holidays, or cancelling plans to buy new curtains, or choosing not to renew a gym membership - all of which have an effect on the wider economy.

    As demand drops, so does the rate of price increases - which is the theory behind using interest rates to control inflation.

    Media caption,

    Interest rates: What you can do about rising mortgage payments

  8. 'Buying our first house seems further and further away'published at 13:58 Greenwich Mean Time 2 November 2023

    Colletta Smith
    Cost of living correspondent

    Ebony Cropper

    Ebony Cropper is a 25-year-old business co-ordinator from Warrington.

    She’s renting with her fiancé and they are budgeting hard, dividing their cash into wallets in the hope of saving enough for house deposit.

    But their rent went up an extra £45 a month in August making saving even harder.

    "We got engaged this year but then I think [the wedding] has got to wait because it’s a big expense as it is for just one day and a house is more important," she says.

    The couple are looking to buy a two-bedroom property. "It would be nice to have three bedrooms - space to grow, but we are also managing expectations currently about a first time home and what you can have," she says.

    “It feels like the mountains get bigger constantly…[saving] just feels a bit futile at the moment because your goal is getting further and further away."

  9. What's been happening?published at 13:46 Greenwich Mean Time 2 November 2023

    As a reminder, the Bank of England has decided to hold its interest rates - meaning they remain at their highest for 15 years.

    • Interest rates will stay at 5.25% - unchanged from September's rate - after the Bank previously raised rates 14 times in a row to tame inflation
    • The Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, which decides the rates, voted by a margin of 6-3 to keep the rate
    • The Bank said it expects a sharp slowdown in inflation to 4.8% in October's figures, which will be released this month
    • It also forecast that UK economic growth will flatline next year, with zero growth over 2024
    • The Bank's governor Andrew Bailey said “it’s much too early to be thinking about rate cuts" and that easing inflation did not mean interest rates would soon start to fall
    • Chancellor Jeremy Hunt described the UK economy as "far more resilient than many expected" and will set out plans to boost economic growth in the Autumn Statement on 22 November
    • Labour said the past 13 years of "economic failure" have "left working people worse off", while the Lib Dems called the interest rates decision a "cold comfort for the millions of hard working families"
    • Brokers expect mortgage rates to drop slightly, but even if they do, they are still considerably higher than most homeowners' previous deals
  10. Analysis

    Higher interest rates could hit younger workers and low paidpublished at 13:30 Greenwich Mean Time 2 November 2023

    Dharshini David
    Chief economics correspondent

    Rates are on hold but the worse may be yet to come for many.

    Over half of mortgage holders have already been exposed to the previous higher rates, a further two million households will be before the end of 2024 as they renew expired deals.

    Their monthly repayments may rise by hundreds of pounds. And as landlords suffer the same fate on buy-to-let mortgages, renters are exposed.

    As those higher bills translate to hit spending and job creation, one member of the Bank of England’s interest rate panel warned me that it’s the lowest income and younger groups that would feel the impact of higher rates most keenly.

    Is it worth the pain? As the governor of the Bank of England points out, inflation hurts - and being rooted in the staples - food, energy - this bout has hit those on lower incomes hardest too. One in six people are now using credit to cope with those higher prices.

    There’s no quick fix or easy answers.

  11. What's the reaction to the Bank's decision to hold rates?published at 13:24 Greenwich Mean Time 2 November 2023

    Michael Race
    Business reporter

    Economic analysts and business groups have been reacting to the decision to maintain UK interest rates at 5.25%.

    “No news from the Bank of England is good news for the UK’s mortgage holders," says Laith Khalaf, head of investment analysis at AJ Bell.

    “The market is now pencilling in an interest rate cut next summer, and based on the latest projections from the Bank of England, that looks like a reasonable working assumption," he says.

    Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown, says the Bank has stayed "firmly in the ‘wait and see’ chorus, cautious that the full impact of interest rates hikes has yet to be felt" by households and businesses.

    But some economists think the Bank has got the decision wrong.

    Julian Jessop, of the right-leaning Institute of Economic Affairs think tank, says the Bank should be thinking about interest rate cuts.

    "Economic activity and inflation have both been weaker than the Bank had expected, money and credit growth have collapsed, and business surveys are already signalling recession," he says.

  12. No discussion about cutting interest rates - Baileypublished at 13:17 Greenwich Mean Time 2 November 2023

    Dearbail Jordan
    Business reporter

    Bank of England press conferece

    The press conference the Bank of England is still ongoing, and governor Andrew Bailey is taking a firm stance on battling inflation.

    I’m told that some businesses have been saying to the Bank that now that inflation is easing, surely it's time for an interest rate cut?

    No dice, says Bailey. In fact, it looks like they will stay close to this level to make sure the pace of price rises slows sustainably.

    "There's been no discussion on the committee about cutting interest rates," he says. "We think that, other things being equal, interest rates will have to remain where they are now for an extended period of time to get inflation back to target."

  13. Does the Bank see a recession on the way?published at 13:06 Greenwich Mean Time 2 November 2023

    The BBC's economics editor Faisal Islam asks Andrew Bailey that if the Bank does see a recession coming, will it cut interest rates?

    Bailey says that the Bank’s responsibility it to bring inflation down to a 2% target, not make forecasts – though it has provided an outlook in inflation where it says GDP growth will be subdued.

    Bailey emphasises that there is still a way to go to cut inflation – it was 6.7% in the year to September.

  14. War in Middle East 'creating economic uncertainty' - Baileypublished at 12:59 Greenwich Mean Time 2 November 2023

    Responding to questions from reporters, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey says the war between Israel and Hamas is creating economic uncertainty and higher energy prices.

    "The events in the Middle East are tragic in terms of the human cost," he says.

    "We have to view it through the economic lens. It does create uncertainty, it does I think create a risk of higher energy prices. So far, I would say, that hasn't happened and that's obviously encouraging, but the risk remains."

  15. Interest rates decision a cold comfort for families - Lib Demspublished at 12:56 Greenwich Mean Time 2 November 2023

    Sarah OlneyImage source, Getty Images

    Reacting to the Bank of England's decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25% - their highest for 15 years - the Liberal Democrats said it would be a "cold comfort for the millions of hardworking families forced to pay out hundreds of pounds more a month for their mortgage".

    Lib Dem treasury spokeswoman Sarah Olney said members of the public are "watching big banks being handed insulting tax cuts by this government" while their mortgage bills "spiral".

    "It's time the government scrapped their big bank tax cut and provided help for families who simply can't afford whopping mortgage bills."

  16. 'Inflation is still too high' - Baileypublished at 12:49 Greenwich Mean Time 2 November 2023

    Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey

    Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey tells reporters at a press conference that the UK's central bank would keep rates as high as needed, for as long as needed, to get the level of inflation down.

    "Let me be clear, there is absolutely no room for complacency. Inflation is still too high. We will keep interest rates high enough for long enough to make sure we get inflation all the way back to the 2% target," he says.

  17. Brokers expect mortgage rates to drop a bitpublished at 12:46 Greenwich Mean Time 2 November 2023

    Kevin Peachey
    Cost of living correspondent

    Interest rates have been held and the Bank's governor says it is far too early to think about cutting them - and yet, mortgage brokers expect a slight improvement in fixed-deal mortgage rates.

    Why? It is about confidence and competition.

    There is confidence because two holds in a row suggest rates may have peaked, offering some certainty to lenders setting their own mortgage rates.

    Mortgage costs may also drop a bit because lenders are now increasingly competing for custom after a period of very low activity in the sector.

    But, remember, even if mortgage rates drop a little more, they are still considerably higher than most homeowners' previous deals. So monthly repayments will still be much more expensive than people became accustomed to for a decade or so.

  18. Working people worse off, says Labour's Reevespublished at 12:40 Greenwich Mean Time 2 November 2023

    Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves making her keynote speech during the Labour Party Conference at Arena and Convention Centre Liverpool, also known as simply ACC, in Liverpool.Image source, PA Media

    Labour's shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said today's forecasts from the Bank of England are a "damning indictment of 13 years of economic failure that has left working people worse off".

    Reeves recalled that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Chancellor Jeremy Hunt pledged to get the UK economy growing, but she said today's figures "show we are going in the wrong direction".

    Reeves said the Labour party's plans for growth, if they were to win the next election, "will make working people better off by getting Britain building again, cutting energy bills, and creating good jobs across the country".

  19. News conference has begunpublished at 12:34 Greenwich Mean Time 2 November 2023

    We're now hearing more from the Bank of England at a live news conference where our correspondents Dearbail Jordan and Faisal Islam are present.

    You can watch it live by pressing Play at the top of this page. Stick with us as we bring you the latest.

    Bank press conference
  20. UK economy has been more resilient than expected - Huntpublished at 12:31 Greenwich Mean Time 2 November 2023

    Jeremy HuntImage source, Getty Images

    Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has reacted to the latest news that interest rates have been held.

    He says the UK economy has been "far more resilient than many expected" and that the "best way to deliver prosperity is through sustainable growth".

    “The Autumn Statement will set out how we will boost economic growth by unlocking private investment, getting more Brits back to work, and delivering a more productive British state," he says.

    The Autumn Statement will take place on 22 November.