Summary

  • The economy grew by 0.6% in the first three months of the year - taking the UK out of recession

  • That's the fastest growth in two years and more than analysts were expecting

  • Services including retail, public transport, haulage and health did particularly well, official figures show

  • Chancellor Jeremy Hunt tells the Today programme the news is "encouraging" and the longer term data about the UK economy is positive

  • But he's pushed on weak growth in the economy over the past two years

  • Labour's Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, tells the BBC people are still worse off despite this "technical recovery"

  1. Growth 'stronger than expected' - ONSpublished at 07:52 British Summer Time 10 May 2024

    The economy's 0.6% growth over the first quarter of 2024 was “stronger" than expected, director of economic statistics at the Office for National Statistics (ONS) says.

    Liz McKeown tells BBC Radio 4's Today programme that services, such as retail, public transport, haulage and health, were “the biggest driver of growth” - up 0.7%.

    Speaking about she says GDP per capita - the GDP figure divided by the population - increased by 0.4% after seven consecutive quarters of no growth.

    Asked about how the UK economy is doing overall, she says looking at the figures since pre-pandemic, GDP went up 1.7% over that period, but the ONS is "still seeing a fall in GDP per head of 1.2%".

  2. Where has economic growth come from?published at 07:34 British Summer Time 10 May 2024

    Dearbail Jordan
    Business reporter

    Apparently, people have been splashing out in the first three months of this year.

    The ONS says there is anecdotal evidence from looking at credit and debit card transactions that consumers have been treating themselves to "delayables".

    This slightly baffling ONS term means things like clothing or home furnishings. It basically shows that consumer spending - at least for some - has improved.

    UK economy growth graphImage source, .
  3. Analysis

    Figures signal economic calm after years of turmoilpublished at 07:28 British Summer Time 10 May 2024

    Faisal Islam
    Economics editor

    These figures are a return not just to growth, but to more normal levels of quarterly growth too.

    In Q1 the UK economy grew by the joint fastest in the G7 advanced nations.

    It was driven by a punchy increase in the output of the services sector, but the return to growth was experienced in most sectors of the economy.

    The recession at the end of last year is over and the mildest in recent records. And while the overall trend over the past two years is still sluggish this is the fastest growth in any three month period (outside of the pandemic bounceback) since 2019.

    GDP per head also grew again after nearly two years. Together with a likely fall in the inflation rate close to 2%, this month does look like a return to a more normal economic environment after years of turmoil.

  4. No time for a victory lap - Labourpublished at 07:18 British Summer Time 10 May 2024

    shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves.Image source, Getty Images

    We're hearing reaction now from Labour's shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves.

    In a statement, Reeves says this is "no time for Conservative ministers to be doing a victory lap and telling the British people that they have never had it so good".

    “After 14 years of economic chaos, working people are still worse off," she adds.

    "Prices are still significantly higher in the shops, families are paying hundreds of pounds more on monthly mortgage bills, and the economy is forecast to grow by just one per cent next year."

  5. Growth returns...but not everywherepublished at 07:15 British Summer Time 10 May 2024

    Dearbail Jordan
    Business reporter

    Economic growth between January and March was much better than expected - the general consensus was that GDP would expand by 0.4%.

    Growth was led by services - that includes things like hospitality, arts, entertainment - and was likely helped by an early Easter in March. Last year, it was in April.

    The Office for National Statistics also said that production also grew.

    On the other hand, the construction sector shrank. We're examining the latest figures now, so stay with us for more.

  6. Economy 'returning to full health', Hunt sayspublished at 07:10 British Summer Time 10 May 2024

    British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt leaves Downing Street, in London, Britain, March 19, 2024.Image source, Reuters

    Chancellor Jeremy Hunt says today's figures are "proof that the economy is returning to full health for the first time since the pandemic".

    Hunt says: “We’re growing this year and have the best outlook among European G7 countries over the next six years, with wages growing faster than inflation, energy prices falling and tax cuts worth £900 to the average worker hitting bank accounts.”

  7. Analysis

    Experts will see economic growth as a crawl rather than sprintpublished at 07:08 British Summer Time 10 May 2024

    Dharshini David
    Chief economics correspondent

    It’s official: preliminary numbers say the UK emerge from recession earlier this year, helped by consumer spending.

    That’s no mean feat, especially as that spending has been under pressure from the interest rate rises deployed to combat inflation.

    However, many will not feel that they’ve turned the corner. Take away population growth and inflation and income typically remains below where it was a couple of years ago.

    Some are still struggling to see incomes match inflation, or are facing a jump in debt repayments as they remortgage.

    And most economists see growth over the next couple of years amounting to a crawl rather than a sprint - how to up the pace, and maintain it is the question all political leaders will have to address ahead of the election.

  8. UK economy out of recessionpublished at 07:00 British Summer Time 10 May 2024
    Breaking

    The UK economy grew by 0.6% between January and March, according to official figures.

    It means that the country has officially emerged from recession.

  9. Analysis

    Economy is key as UK heads for general electionpublished at 06:55 British Summer Time 10 May 2024

    Faisal Islam
    Economics editor

    These figures are an important staging post for the UK economy.

    They should underline the fact that the recession at the end of the last year was the mildest on record.

    The government will seize on the figures alongside a likely fall in the inflation rate close to the 2% target in the next fortnight to say the economy is back to normal.

    Yesterday, the governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey told the BBC that the economy had turned a corner, but that it was not yet a strong recovery.

    Even with a formal return to growth this morning, the economy has barely grown for two years.

    Earlier this week, shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said, in anticipation of today’s figures, that the government was delusional and “gaslighting” the public about the strength of the economy.

    The battle over perceptions of the strength of recovery is likely to be at the heart of the general election campaign.

    Both main parties claim they want to fight the election on the economy.

  10. Why do today’s figures matter?published at 06:48 British Summer Time 10 May 2024

    Economists will be watching these new figures closely because they’ll tell us if we’ve come out of the technical recession we entered at the end of 2023.

    If the statistics show the UK has climbed out of recession, the government will argue it's proof its management of the economy is working.

    Conversely, if GDP continues to fall and the economy remains in recession, opposition politicians will maintain the government is running it badly.

  11. ‘It feels like things are picking up again’published at 06:45 British Summer Time 10 May 2024

    Ed Beardwell
    Image caption,

    Bike shop owner Ed Beardwell says business seems to have turned a corner

    Ed Beardwell has owned the RollQuick cycle shop in Bristol for the past 11 months, and says the business "just about breaks even".

    He cites the cost of living as an issue.

    "People are pretty cost-sensitive in Bristol. An awful lot of bikes get stolen and that keeps down the price that anyone is willing to pay," Beardwell explains.

    The rise in popularity of e-bikes was also affecting the sale of traditional bikes, he adds.

    Poor sales during the recession led to a focus on bike servicing, which now accounts for 70% of his turnover.

    Beardwell tells the BBC that while the winter had been disappointing, business seems to have turned a corner.

    "It does feel like things are getting busier and picking up again. When you look at the sales statistics we are down on this point last year but tracking better than at the end of last year," he says.

  12. How is GDP measured?published at 06:40 British Summer Time 10 May 2024

    GDP can be measured in three ways:

    • Output: The total value of the goods and services produced by all sectors of the economy - agriculture, manufacturing, energy, construction, the service sector and government
    • Expenditure: The value of goods and services bought by households and by government, investment in machinery and buildings - this also includes the value of exports, minus imports
    • Income: The value of the income generated, mostly in terms of profits and wages

    In the UK, the ONS publishes one single measure of GDP, which is calculated using all three measurements.

    But early estimates mainly use the output measure, using data collected from thousands of companies.

  13. Bank of England boss weighs in on UK economy rowpublished at 06:36 British Summer Time 10 May 2024

    Andrew BaileyImage source, Getty Images

    The Bank of England governor has weighed in on a row over whether the UK economy is recovering from the cost-of-living crisis.

    Andrew Bailey told the BBC that the UK economy had "turned a corner".

    He made the comments ahead of figures due out this morning expected to confirm that the UK is no longer in recession.

    The government has pressed the case that the economy has turned around, but Labour has described such views as "delusional".

    Bailey said the UK economy was now going into a "gradual growth phase" - not a "strong recovery" - but that there was "good news" in household incomes increasing.

  14. How does GDP affect me?published at 06:29 British Summer Time 10 May 2024

    Graphic of a hand holding a debit card in front of a card machine

    The government can use growing GDP as evidence that it is doing a good job of managing the economy. Likewise, if GDP falls, opposition politicians say the government is running it badly.

    If GDP is going up steadily, people pay more in tax because they're earning and spending more.

    This means more money for the government, which it can choose to spend on public services, such as schools, police and hospitals.

    When the economy shrinks and a country goes into recession, these things can go into reverse.

    Governments tend to get less money in tax, which means they may decide to freeze or cut public spending. Or taxes may rise.

    In 2020, the Covid pandemic caused the most severe UK recession for more than 300 years, which forced the government to borrow hundreds of billions of pounds to support the economy.

  15. What is a recession?published at 06:25 British Summer Time 10 May 2024

    A quick reminder - a country is usually described as being in a technical recession if GDP falls for two successive three-month periods - known as quarters.

    The UK fell into recession at the end of last year after the economy shrank by 0.1% in the third quarter and by 0.3% in the fourth quarter.

    Read more: What is a recession and how could it affect me?

  16. What is GDP and how is it worked out?published at 06:14 British Summer Time 10 May 2024

    GDP is a measure of all the economic activity of companies, governments and people in a country.

    In the UK, new GDP figures are published by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) every month.

    However, quarterly figures - covering three months at a time - are considered more important.

    Most economists, politicians and businesses like to see GDP rising steadily, because it usually means people are spending more, extra jobs are created, more tax is paid and workers get better pay rises.

    When GDP is falling, it means the economy is shrinking - which can be bad news for businesses and workers.

  17. Latest GDP figures to be published shortlypublished at 06:09 British Summer Time 10 May 2024

    Emily McGarvey
    Live editor

    Good morning, and welcome to our coverage of today’s big economic story - whether the UK is still officially in recession.

    In just under an hour’s time we’ll find out just how well the economy is doing with what’s known as the GDP figures, or Gross Domestic Product.

    GDP, which broadly covers economic growth, measures the value of goods and services that the UK produces. It's measured by looking at output, expenditure and income.

    Basically, when the number rises it means the economy's doing well - and when it falls it’s doing badly.

    GDP matters because it influences how businesses act, how the government chooses to set its tax and spending policies, and what the Bank of England does with its interest rates.

    We’ll get the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics at 07:00 BST. Stick with us for the announcement, as well as reaction and analysis from our experts.