Can Donald Trump really sway the Argentine election?published at 22:57 BST 14 October

22:57 BST 14 October

Ione Wells
South America correspondent

Image source, Getty Images

Can Trump's comments really sway an election in Argentina? Donald Trump said the not-so-quiet bit out loud in this meeting: the US’s financial support for Argentina, in the form of a $20bn (£15bn) currency swap, is to help bolster Javier Milei’s poll ratings ahead of midterm elections on 26 October.

"I think they will be better after this," Trump declared around a table at the White House. "Our approvals are somewhat subject to who wins the election."

But will Trump's statements actually make a difference? On the one hand, this swap is a bit of a lifeline for the Argentine peso. Milei had been stopping it from crashing by propping it up with the country's reserves. Doing that drained reserves, ahead of $20bn (£15bn) in debt payments due next year. That led to fears the country was heading for an imminent financial crisis.

So, this US support does help Milei – for now – avoid that by instead letting the peso instead devalue sharply. Many economists have thought that move could be political suicide, as it would lead to a spike in inflation again. Trump also seemed to threaten that US support for Argentina depended on Milei and his party doing well in these midterm elections.

But is that calculation really going to cut through to ordinary voters? Some opinion polling suggests that Argentines are tiring of austerity measures. The policies may have cut inflation and the deficit significantly, but they've come at a social cost. And Milei's party has been rocked with various corruption scandals, including one involving his sister.

These are all just some of the - sometimes competing - factors playing on Argentines' minds as they head to the voting booths in a few weeks.

• We are ending our live coverage of today's meeting between the two presidents. You can listen to the latest episode of The Global Story podcast for more on the US deal with Argentina. It's on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts. Thank you for joining us.

Image source, Getty Images

Donald Trump and Javier Milei just spoke to the press for more than an hour at the White House this afternoon ahead of their bilateral lunch meeting.

The US president hit on several different subjects. Here's what we learned about the American-Argentine relationship:

• Trump was full of praise for Milei from the beginning, calling him a great leader and saying he is "Maga all the way"
• He also fully threw his support behind the Argentine president's upcoming bid for re-election next year, calling the possibility of his victory "very important"
• Not only did Trump lend his endorsement to Milei, but he also said US aid to Argentina could be contingent upon the victories of Milei and his party as the country holds midterm elections later this month
• As a reminder, Trump has offered Argentina a $20bn (£15bn) financial rescue plan to help give Milei breathing room as the peso rapidly loses value
• But that support is not a guarantee, Trump said, and US “approvals” would be “somewhat subject to who wins the election.”
• The US president also gave Argentines a clear ultimatum about Milei's 2027 reelection bid, saying "If he doesn't win, we're gone"
• Milei said he was "honoured" to visit the White House and praised Trump's peacemaking efforts in the Middle East

Bernd Debusmann Jr
Reporting from the White House

When eccentric Argentine president Javier Milei stunned the country with a surprisingly strong first-place finish in Argentina’s presidential primaries in 2023, he singled out five supporters for thanks: Conan, Murray, Milton, Robert and Lucas.

“Who else?” he said. “My four-legged children.”

For many of Milei's observers, his dogs - large English Mastiffs named after his favourite economists - have become the focus of intense interest. His supporters have handed out their pictures at rallies, and Milei reportedly seeks political and economic counsel from the dogs.

He has even referred to the canines as "the best strategists in the world".

His political opponents have often seized on the dogs to attack Milei, with one-time election rival Sergio Massa once saying that Argentines are worried about the country’s future, "unlike those who speak to their dogs like they were their kids".

Part of the public’s fascination with the dogs is due to the fact that the five were all cloned from a previous dog, also named Conan.

Citing a number of sources, Argentina's La Nacion newspaper has reported that Milei believes he first met Conan in a previous life, in which he was a gladiator in Rome and Conan was a lion, with the pair declining to fight so that they could join forces later on.

Milei, however, has been relatively quiet publicly about whatever advice he may or may not get from his dogs.

"What I do inside my house is my problem," he told Spanish newspaper El Pais in 2024.

Milei posted what seemed to be an AI-generated illustration of him and his dogs on Instagram in 2023.

The topic of furry friends did not come up today during the public portion of the meeting between Trump and Milei.

The US president is one of only three American leaders - alongside 19th-century presidents James Polk and Andrew Jackson - to not own a pet while living at the White House. In his first term, Trump was the first president in more than 100 years to not have a dog as an Oval Office companion.

Image source, Instagram

Ione Wells
South America correspondent

While Argentina is getting a $20bn currency swap, neighbouring Brazil is still trying to negotiate its way out of 50% US tariffs on some of its goods.

Both cases show Trump mixing politics with economics in his approach to Latin America.

The tariffs on Brazil were imposed largely for political reasons in response to the coup trial of his ally, former right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro – even though the US actually has a trade surplus with Brazil.

Meanwhile, Trump has been quick to help another conservative ally, Argentina’s Javier Milei. Milei was the first foreign leader to visit Trump after his inauguration, and the two men have bonded over their shared disdain for so-called "woke" issues. Despite both being extremely powerful men, they both built campaigns railing against "political elites".

What’s striking, though, is how different their economic philosophies are. Milei is pursuing free-market reforms like slashing public spending, tariffs, and regulation. Meanwhile Trump has raised tariffs to promote his "America First" agenda.

For decades, Washington held itself up as a model of free-market capitalism, urging Latin America to follow suit. Now, even as it praises Milei’s radical free-market experiment, the US is far more interventionist at home.

Ione Wells
South America correspondent

As Trump and Milei meet today, Open AI, the creator of ChatGPT, has signed a letter of intent to build an AI data centre in Argentina’s Patagonia region.

The Stargate project was announced by the Argentine government on Friday.

It would be a partnership with the domestic company Sur Energy and involve about $25bn of US investment.

The project will be part of President Javier Milei’s "RIGI" scheme.

The scheme, which is designed to attract foreign capital, offers tax breaks and incentives to foreign investments of more than $200m.

Patagonia is an area of rare natural beauty, filled with national parks, and popular with tourists, hikers and cyclists.

But it is also an area of huge strategic interest to the US.

Data centres often require huge amounts of water for their cooling systems, depending on the technology deployed.

Patagonia has a cooler climate, abundant fresh water, and nearby cheaper energy from hydroelectric dams – some of which are financed by China. This makes Patagonia a useful location.

The US is also collaborating with Argentina in constructing a military base in Ushuaia, the southern tip of the country and a gateway to Antarctica, as part of attempts to curb Chinese influence in the South Atlantic and Antarctica.

Argentina's stock market had been rallying ahead of Trump's meeting with Milei, as investors eagerly awaited more details about the US bailout plan.

But stocks reversed course during the wide-ranging conversation that also touched on the government shutdown and the Middle East, among other issues beyond the bailout itself. A key index of US-traded Argentine stocks fell by as much as 6% during the meeting, while the S&P Merval - Argentina's flagship index of major stocks - dropped more than 3%.

Investors were digesting Trump's comments about the US financial rescue plan being contingent on Milei's election victory.

Natalie Sherman
New York business reporter

Democrats say US willingness to help Argentina is not just about boosting Milei.

They say the administration is also acting to protect the US hedge funds that bought up Argentine debt in recent years, despite its risky reputation, and could face losses if the situation deteriorates.

For example, critics cite billionaire investor Robert Citrone, a minority owner of the Steelers NFL team, who previously worked with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and whose firm has been among the most prominent investors.

"Trump promised ‘America First,’ but he’s putting himself and his billionaire buddies first and sticking Americans with the bill," Senator Elizabeth Warren, a Democrat from Massachusetts, has said.

Bessent, who made his name playing in currency and debt markets, has denied the US is responding to hedge fund concerns - a charged claim given the high-profile fights such firms have waged against Argentina in the past.

Elliott Management, led by US billionaire Paul Singer, infamously even had an Argentine navy vessel seized as part of its fight to pressure the country to pay out bondholders.

Ione Wells
South America correspondent

Image source, Getty Images

It’s hard to ignore the timing: the US intervention also looks like a political lifeline for Javier Milei, just weeks before voters deliver their verdict on him and his government in Argentina’s midterms.

His party performed worse than expected in the Buenos Aires provincial elections in September, prompting a market panic as investors feared further losses in the 26 October vote, where congressional seats are up for grabs.

If Milei’s coalition does poorly again, passing future reforms will become far harder.

The hope in Milei’s camp is that the US currency swap, which has steadied the peso, will also steady his political fortunes. It may spare him from what many saw as political suicide: preserving reserves that have been propping up the currency by letting the peso sharply devalue, which would have sent prices soaring.

Still, it’s unclear whether this will be enough to reverse his sliding popularity. Polls show voters frustrated not only by rising living costs but also by corruption scandals, including one involving his sister, that have rocked his government.

• You can listen to the latest episode of The Global Story podcast for more on the US deal with Argentina. It's on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts

The bilateral news conference is over and the media is being ushered out of the room.

Milei and Trump and their teams are set to continue with private discussions over lunch.

Stay with us as we bring you more analysis on this meeting and the US rescue plan for Argentina.

Natalie Sherman
New York business reporter

Image source, Getty Images

The US has stepped in to buy pesos and agreed to establish a $20bn (£15bn) swap line, which will allow Argentina to exchange pesos for dollars.

At this White House meeting, Trump has just said the deal has "got a better chance of success than failure. And if it's successful, it's an unbelievable success. It can transform your country into greatness."

The terms of that deal are not known, but it could leave the US holding a lot of currency that is losing value.

That’s because in recent months, the Argentine government has spent billions to try to prop up the value of the peso.

But analysts are betting it does not have the resources to continue for much longer, especially with billions in debt payments due next year. They have history on their side: Argentina’s past is rife with defaults on national debt, currency turmoil and other crises.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said there is minimal financial risk to the US, arguing that the peso is "undervalued" and the bigger risk is that economic chaos turn Argentina into a "failed state" like Venezuela.

There are political risks too of course - as critics cite the bailout, occurring at a time of cuts in government spending and a shutdown - as a betrayal of Trump’s pledge to put "America First".

Bernd Debusmann Jr
Reporting from the White House

Trump has repeatedly jabbed at US network ABC during this Q&A session, calling them "fake news" and saying that he will no longer take questions from them.

At the heart of the issue is a contentious Sunday interview in which Vice-President JD Vance clashed with news presenter George Stephanopoulos. The veteran US reporter repeatedly pressed Vance on allegations that border czar Tom Homan accepted a bribe in 2024.

Vance told Stephanopoulos that he should focus on "real issues" and accused him of "going down some weird left-wing rabbit hole".

Stephanopoulos said his question was not a "rabbit hole" and abruptly ended the interview, accusing Vance of not answering the question.

Trump clearly believes that Vance was mistreated by the network, and has made ABC the latest target of his ire against US media networks - a topic that often crops up in the Trump White House.

Trump is speaking about the US government shutdown, which is in its second week.

"It is up to them," he says referring to Democrats who he blames for the shutdown. "All they have to do is to vote to extend" government funding, Trump says.

His administration has faced criticism from Democrats for its $20 billion financial rescue package for Argentina while in the midst of a shutdown in which US federal employees have been furloughed, fired or working without pay.

Ione Wells
South America correspondent

Image source, AFP via Getty Images

Argentina’s peso has been losing value for years.

Javier Milei promised to dollarise the economy, but he hasn’t done that yet.

But, large swathes of the economy are "unofficially" dollarised - where those who can afford to convert their savings into dollars to keep them more secure. Some prefer stashing them in cash then risk leaving them in banks.

When Javier Milei was first elected, he devalued the peso by 50% which initially sent prices rocketing. Then as people could afford less, and spent less, demand fell, and so did inflation.

After this initial shock, Milei tried to slow the peso’s devaluation by managing its ‘depreciation’ – a move that gave investors stability but drained the country’s dwindling reserves.

Now, Argentina owes $20bn next year and economists warn its "overvalued" peso could make a new financial crisis inevitable.

It’s thought this US currency swap will give Milei breathing room, but only temporarily.

It’s still also not that clear when Argentina will have to give these "swapped" dollars back, and with what interest. The US better hope Argentina doesn’t default on its debts again, and can afford to.

• You can listen to the latest episode of The Global Story podcast for more on the US deal with Argentina. It's on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts

Trump is making parallels between Milei's place in Argentina politics and his own place in US politics.

He says the Argentine president's 'one problem' is getting "bad press", and he blamed a "radical left sick culture" for trying to make Milei look bad.

When asked what advice he would give to Milei, Trump says he must "hold true to his principles".

Image source, Getty Images

Trump is now telling reporters that US support seems to be contingent on Milei winning the next presidential election, which is in 2027.

Trump says Milei will probably be running against an opposition candidate who is "extremely far-left".

"If he [Milei] loses, we are not going to be generous with Argentina," he says.

"If he doesn't win, we're gone," Trump adds.

A journalist asks Trump whether continuing US financial support to Argentina relies on the results of the country's upcoming midterm elections. Turmp responds that the US won't be around very long if the opposition wins. He then passes the question to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Bessent says post-election policies toward Argentina might require a "US rethink".

Danielle Kaye
New York business reporter

Image source, Reuters

The Trump administration's $20bn financial rescue plan to Argentina, which Trump and Milei have spent their meeting discussing, has raised alarm in the US agriculture sector, especially among one group that has seen export markets dry up: soybean farmers.

China, the world's biggest buyer of the legume, has been decreasing its reliance on US soybeans since trade wars during Trump's first term. It stopped buying from the US altogether in May, as retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural exports have prompted Chinese buyers to turn to South America - led by Brazil - instead.

Now China is turning to Argentina for its soybeans, too, after the country dropped its export taxes on the product.

US farmers are calling out the risk of being further sidelined as the Trump administration props up a country that is increasingly selling soybeans to China.

"Even that is displacing US soybeans," said Mark Legan, a livestock, corn and soybean farmer in Putnam County, Indiana.

Farmers are poised to get a separate bailout from the federal government, mirroring similar aid during Trump's first term. But Legan said the emergency aid, while welcome, would not address the underlying issue of falling crop prices amid China's u-turn.

Chris Barrett, an economics professor at Cornell University, called the Argentina bailout "peculiar".

"Our first bailout is to Argentina and Wall Street investors in Argentina," Barrett said. "Of the many people whose businesses and jobs have been disrupted in the last six months, that seems like a really strange place to start the queue."

Trump draws connections between Argentina and New York electionspublished at 19:23 BST 14 October

19:23 BST 14 October

Anthony Zurcher
North America correspondent

Donald Trump may be meeting with Argentine President Javier Milei, but American politics is clearly still on his mind.

Without prompting, Trump drew a connection between Milei’s leftist political opponents in that nation’s upcoming midterm legislative elections and November’s mayoral race in New York City, where socialist Zohran Mamdani – The Democratic candidate who Trump called a “communist” - is leading in the polls.

Trump implied that in both cases, if the left-wing candidates win, then investment would dry up and there would be no chance of economic improvement.

Ione Wells
South America correspondent

Image source, Reuters

Donald Trump has effectively admitted that this $20b currency swap with the US is an attempt to sway upcoming midterm elections in Argentina.

That vote is coming up on 26 October. There are seats in both houses of Congress up for grabs.

Javier Milei’s party performed worse than expected in recent provincial elections in Buenos Aires, which spooked the markets who figured this could suggest his economic programme’s days are numbered.

His party has recently been rocked by several corruption scandals, and there are signs the public are tiring of some of his austerity measures, which has knocked his popularity.

If Milei’s party loses seats, or fails to gain more, in these midterms – that could affect his government’s ability to pass further reforms. Several key vetoes he has tried to make have already been overturned by Congress, where he doesn’t have a majority.

During their meeting now, President Trump has referenced the upcoming elections.

He said the victory of Milei was “very important” and that he thinks Milei’s polling will be “better after this.”

He also gave a veiled threat to Argentina – that US “approvals” would be “somewhat subject to who wins the election.”

Now, this is not a presidential election. That isn’t due until 2027.

But Trump said if “a socialist wins” then the US would feel “a lot differently” about it’s support for Argentina.

• You can listen to the latest episode of The Global Story podcast for more on the US deal with Argentina. It's on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts

Bernd Debusmann Jr
Reporting from the White House

One of the reporters in the room just asked the question that's in the minds of some within Trump's base - how a bailout for Argentina can be "America First".

He did not address the question directly, pivoting to how "well" the US is doing in South America.

Rubio quickly took over, saying that other countries - including Costa Rica and El Salvador - have pivoted towards being friendlier towards the US.

"Great progress has been made," Trump added.

Trump quickly moved on.

Image source, Reuters