The figure to look out for this morning is whether the UK economy has grown in the second quarter of the year - from April to June - compared to the first quarter - January to March.

The analysts at Capital Economics are forecasting a 0.1% rise in GDP, pointing to better retail and car sales in June.

But, they say, "while the economy may be past the worst, it’s hard to envisage GDP picking up strongly anytime soon."

Harry Farley
Political correspondent

Image source, PA Media

Today’s figures cover the end of Rachel Reeves’ first year in charge of the economy.

In that time she has repeatedly said her “number one aim” is to “kickstart economic growth”. So how’s that going? This data will give us a snapshot. If – as expected – growth has slowed, the political pressure on her will only grow.

Writing in the Guardian newspaper Reeves anticipates the expected criticism. She argues she is taking steps to break a “cycle of low growth” under the Conservatives.

“Britain’s economy is not broken, but I know that in recent years it has got stuck,” she writes.

The problem for Reeves is time. Labour MPs I speak worry many of the measures she is taking – like reform to planning rules and investment in skills training – won’t have had an impact by the time of the next election.

More immediately, the assumption in Westminster is she will increase taxes in the autumn Budget. Today’s economic figures matter for how much she will have to raise.

Dharshini David
Deputy economics editor

Image source, Get

The government's number one mission is to grow the economy, but that growth may have been in short supply in the second quarter.

The economy is expected to have grown by just 0.1% - a marked slowdown from the 0.7% in the first three months of the year.

That partly reflects distortions caused by President Trump's tariffs announcement in April. A rush by exporters to beat those levies prompted a surge in goods sold to the US in the first few months of the year. But, that is likely to have fallen back since, depressing growth.

Business surveys and economists also suggest that the government’s own measures - higher taxes and minimum wages for example - have been squeezing businesses and hitting job creation.

And, even though incomes for workers are typically outpacing inflation, consumers have been quite cautious.

The challenge for the Chancellor is how to rebuild confidence among businesses and households - ahead of what many fear will be another tax-raising budget - to try to kickstart growth once again.

Many economists and politicians are concerned that the UK economy is not growing fast enough.

When the Labour government took power in July 2024, it made growth its top priority.

The economy had fallen into recession at the end of 2023 but rebounded in the first half of 2024. Since then, growth has been sluggish.

Although the economy grew by 0.7% in the first quarter of 2025, it contracted by 0.3% in April - the steepest monthly decline since October 2023 - and shrank by a further 0.1% in May.

The strength of the economy affects things like pay increases for workers and the amount of tax the government can raise to pay for services.

The figures due to be published today are for the country's GDP - or Gross Domestic Product.

It's a way of measuring all the economic activities of companies, governments, and people in a country.

In the UK, new GDP figures are published every month by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The ONS measures GDP by taking into account the UK's output, its expenditure, and its income, but this can sometimes hide important details on important aspects of living standards like inequality and living standards.

Most economists, politicians, and businesses like to see GDP growing steadily - because it means people are spending more, more jobs are being created and more tax is being paid.

But last month figures showed GDP had contracted by 0.1% in May, following a 0.3% contraction in April - meaning the economy is shrinking.

If GDP falls for two quarters in a row, this is known as a recession, which can lead to pay freezes and job losses.

• We've got more on how GDP is measured, and how it might affect you, in our explainer piece

Jen Meierhans
Business reporter

Good morning from the London newsroom.

At 07:00 BST, we'll find out if the economy grew or shrank in the second quarter of this year - from April to June.

Although the economy grew by 0.7% at the start of this year - better than many had expected - some economists are predicting only a slight increase this time around.

We’ll bring you the latest figures when they're published, as well as analysis on what this means - for the government, the economy and you.