Why Kursk may prove pivotal in ceasefire talkspublished at 13:31 Greenwich Mean Time 17 March
Paul Adams
Diplomatic correspondent

When assessing how and when Vladimir Putin will agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine, it’s important to look at what is happening on the ground in Russia’s Kursk region.
Ukrainian troops launched a mini-invasion last August, capturing a chunk of the region, much to the surprise of Kyiv’s allies and the embarrassment of Moscow.
With the help of around 10,000 North Korean troops, Russia has been fighting back, gradually pushing Ukraine’s forces back towards the border.
That task is now almost complete.
“The Ukrainian military thought that they could hold Kursk as a bargaining chip in negotiations, and unfortunately, that hasn't panned out,” Jack Watling, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute told the BBC.
“The Russians have been able to close the salient and push them out of Russian territory just before the key negotiations get underway.”
It’s not just a diplomatic setback. Around 60,000 Russian troops were deployed to Kursk, tying up valuable resources and helping to slow Moscow’s advance along Ukraine’s long eastern front.
Once the last Ukrainian forces have been pushed out of Kursk, those Russian troops will once again be available for operations elsewhere, increasing the military pressure on Kyiv.
Ukraine was struggling to hold territory in Kursk even before the Trump administration’s decision to withhold military and intelligence assistance.
But even though both were quickly restored, the suspension came at a critical time and probably helped to hasten Ukraine’s retreat.