Paul Adams
Diplomatic correspondent

Image source, Reuters

When assessing how and when Vladimir Putin will agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine, it’s important to look at what is happening on the ground in Russia’s Kursk region.

Ukrainian troops launched a mini-invasion last August, capturing a chunk of the region, much to the surprise of Kyiv’s allies and the embarrassment of Moscow.

With the help of around 10,000 North Korean troops, Russia has been fighting back, gradually pushing Ukraine’s forces back towards the border.

That task is now almost complete.

“The Ukrainian military thought that they could hold Kursk as a bargaining chip in negotiations, and unfortunately, that hasn't panned out,” Jack Watling, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute told the BBC.

“The Russians have been able to close the salient and push them out of Russian territory just before the key negotiations get underway.”

It’s not just a diplomatic setback. Around 60,000 Russian troops were deployed to Kursk, tying up valuable resources and helping to slow Moscow’s advance along Ukraine’s long eastern front.

Once the last Ukrainian forces have been pushed out of Kursk, those Russian troops will once again be available for operations elsewhere, increasing the military pressure on Kyiv.

Ukraine was struggling to hold territory in Kursk even before the Trump administration’s decision to withhold military and intelligence assistance.

But even though both were quickly restored, the suspension came at a critical time and probably helped to hasten Ukraine’s retreat.

People living in Kyiv are still uncertain on Ukraine's future after the possibility of a temporary ceasefire was announced.

"We are not one step closer to peace," Tetiana Bortnytska says.

"I don't think that there will be any positive changes, and the fact that they are pressuring us to give up our territories... I'm sorry, I have two brothers there. What are they fighting for?" she tells the Reuters news agency.

Medical student Vladyslav Pryimachenko says "of course there's no trust but politics is politics. Every war comes with negotiations. So that's what we should do."

Ukraine needs to work with US President Donald Trump, he adds, because America is so powerful.

"So, it's not a question whether it's possible to do it or not. That's the reality, we should do this."

Vitaliy Shevchenko
Russia editor, BBC Monitoring

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky says he has ordered his Defence Minister Rustem Umerov to put together a team of negotiators who will “interact with partners on all the details of the security system that Ukraine needs, and on implementing decisions being approved at military-political level.”

In the statement posted on social media, external, he says the team will travel to London this week to take part in a meeting of “military representatives.”

Military chiefs from the UK's "coalition of the willing" are expected to meet in London on Thursday to discuss plans for a peacekeeping force in Ukraine if a ceasefire is agreed. But it's not clear if Zelensky is referring to the same meeting.

Zelensky also says he has met Umerov and the newly appointed Chief of the General Staff Andriy Hnatov to discuss “the situation on the frontline and also interaction with partners on security guarantees for Ukraine.”

Russia may think it's calling the shotspublished at 12:38 Greenwich Mean Time 17 March

12:38 GMT 17 March

Sarah Rainsford
Eastern Europe correspondent

As the Kremlin confirms that Presidents Putin and Trump will talk on Tuesday, US officials are trying to sound positive about doing a ceasefire deal.

But it’s worth considering the tone of comments coming from Moscow right now. It’s sounding extremely bullish.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko just gave a long interview to the Izvestia newspaper. In it he claims the war in Ukraine has shown Nato and the EU that they “underestimated” Russia and “made a huge mistake betting that they could bring about our strategic defeat”.

Like other officials, he underlines Russia’s insistence that Ukraine can never join Nato.

As for peacekeepers, even as Britain and the EU talk about policing a possible ceasefire, Russia says “no” to any Nato or EU troops on the ground.

All of this is couched in talk of supposed Western aggression against Russia – a military build-up on Nato’s eastern flank. It deliberately ignores the evidence of actual Russian aggression - Crimea in 2014, the Salisbury nerve agent attack, multiple acts of sabotage and much more.

But none of this sounds like the tone of a country under pressure or preparing to make concessions.

It seems more like Russia currently thinks it’s calling the shots.

It's just gone midday in the London newsroom and if you're just joining us, here's the latest on the war in Ukraine:

• US President Donald Trump is set to speak with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Tuesday for Ukraine peace talks
• Speaking to reporters on Sunday, the president said the two leaders will address "power plants", "land" and "dividing up certain assets"
• Russia has confirmed that a call between the US and Russian leaders is being planned but would not be drawn on what they would discuss
• This comes after Ukraine's minister of foreign affairs urged the use of all "diplomatic tools" to make Russia accept the US-proposed ceasefire deal
• Elsewhere, at an EU meeting of foreign affairs ministers in Brussels, the EU's foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas also said Russia's conditions on the proposed ceasefire show "they don't want peace"

Image source, Reuters

• French President Emmanuel Macron and his newly-elected Canadian counterpart Mark Carney held a joint news conference where they said they would demand "clear commitments" from Russia
• Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine continues to rumble on as Russia and Ukraine launched overnight drone attacks on each other, according to officials from both countries
• Ukraine says Russian forces are continuing their attempts to invade the Sumy region, while Ukrainian soldiers have compared fighting in Russia's Kursk region to a "horror movie"

We'll bring you the latest updates as we get them.

Image source, Getty Images

"The ball is now in Russia's court," the US Secretary of State Marco Rubiosaid last week, after he announced plans for a temporary ceasefire.

Ukraine has agreed, but Russia is yet to. President Vladimir Putin last week said he supports the idea, but added there are "nuances".

He said that the "root causes" of the war must be removed, but did not explicitly state what these are.

Putin went on to list the questions that he wants answered: "How will those 30 days be used? For Ukraine to mobilise? Rearm? Train people? Or none of that? Then a question - how will that be controlled?

"Who will give the order to end the fighting? At what cost? Who decides who has broken any possible ceasefire, over 2,000km (1,243 miles)? All those questions need meticulous work from both sides. Who polices it?"

One of the main areas of contention is Russia's western Kursk region, Putin said, where Ukraine launched a military incursion last August and captured some territory.

He claimed Russia was fully back in control of Kursk, and said Ukrainian troops there "have been isolated".

Ukraine's top general Oleksandr Syrskyi said a day earlier that Ukrainian troops would hold defensive positions in the Kursk region "as long as it is expedient and necessary".

The Russian leader had set so many pre-conditions "that nothing will work out at all", Ukraine's President Zelensky said.

It's yet to be seen if Putin will agree to the plan, but he will speak with US President Donald Trump on Tuesday, who has made it clear he wants a deal quickly.

What does Trump mean by 'dividing up certain assets'?published at 11:43 Greenwich Mean Time 17 March

11:43 GMT 17 March

James Landale
reporting from Kyiv

Image source, Reuters

President Trump says the US is discussing with Russia and Ukraine “dividing up certain assets”. But what does that mean?

He was not explicit. It could refer to the possible division of territory as part of a potential long-term settlement. But that is unlikely.

Ukraine says it will never accept occupied territory as Russian, and Russia says the four partially-occupied regions in the east are constitutionally theirs.

So Trump is more likely to be referring to territorial issues that may need to be sorted out as part of any short-term ceasefire. This could involve where to draw a “contact line” that might currently bisect towns and villages in a way that is impractical.

It could refer to safe access to Black Sea ports.

One issue President Zelensky has specifically raised is Ukraine’s demand to take back control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is currently occupied by Russian forces, including the nearby town of Enerhodar where many of the workers live.

France and Canada are “powers of peace” and will continue to stand by Ukraine’s side, French President Emmanuel Macron says.

During a joint press conference between Macron and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, Macron adds that Canada has been by Ukraine and Europe’s side without faltering since the beginning of the war.

Macron also says the two nations will continue to support Ukraine and demand “clear commitments” from Russia.

“We both stand for sovereignty and security… demonstrated by our unwavering support to Ukraine,” Carney says, adding that in a crisis it’s now very important for Canada to strengthen ties with reliable partners.

Image source, Reuters

The new Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has arrived at France's Elysee Palace on his first trip abroad.

He was welcomed by French President Emmanuel Macron.

The two leaders will discuss the war in Ukraine, we'll bring you any lines on Ukraine from their press conference, which is currently taking place.

Several regions in Ukraine are without power after Russian drone attacks, says Ukrenergo, the state-owned electricity operator.

It says Russia targeted energy facilities in multiple areas, damaging equipment. Emergency repairs are under way.

Ukrenergo is also urging Ukrainians to limit their electricity use.

Vitaliy Shevchenko
Russia editor, BBC Monitoring

Civilian casualties continue to be reported after Russian attacks in Ukraine. In the front-line town of Myrnohrad in the eastern Donetsk region, a local resident was killed after a drone targeted his car, Ukrainian police say, external.

In Seredyna-Buda, next to the Russian border in the northern Sumy region, a 65-year-old woman was killed outside her house as Russians opened mortar fire across the border yesterday, Ukrainian prosecutors say, external.

Authorities in Sumy region have repeatedly urged locals living near the border to evacuate, fearing an increase in Russian attacks.

Drones and massive numbers are proving decisive in this warpublished at 10:43 Greenwich Mean Time 17 March

10:43 GMT 17 March

Frank Gardner
reporting from Berlin

"Quantity has a quality all (of) its own" is a quote often attributed to the Soviet leader Joseph Stalin during the battles of World War Two. And so it has proved in the most recent phase of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Ukraine’s forces have often been better equipped, better led and better motivated.

Yet that has proved no match for Russia’s massive advantage in sheer numbers of men and munitions that it can hurl at the front lines.

Moscow put its economy on to a war footing long ago, appointing an economist as defence minister and diverting close to 40% of the state budget to defence, its factories churning out artillery shells and drones.

While Nato countries debate whether to raise their defence spending to 3% of GDP, Russia is spending more than double that - its highest level since the Cold War.

As well as mass, drones have proved a game-changer in this war. Both sides use them with devastating effect.

For a while Ukrainian electronic warfare specialists were able to jam the signal on Russian battlefield drones but Moscow got around this by loading them with thin, fibre-optic cables that can spool out from the back of the drone for several kilometres, making them impossible to jam.

Again, the high numbers of these have had a major impact on infantry, especially those caught out in open country.

Ben Tavener
Moscow producer

The Kremlin has confirmed that a call between presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump is being prepared for Tuesday.

“Yes, that’s true. A call is being planned for Tuesday,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov tells reporters on Monday.

Peskov would not be drawn on what the two presidents would discuss specifically regarding Ukraine peace talks, when asked whether they would broach questions of Ukraine territory and power plants, as mentioned by Donald Trump.

“We never do that,” Peskov says.

Ukraine's minister of foreign affairs urges the use of all "diplomatic tools" to make Russia "unconditionally" accept the US and Ukraine's peace proposal.

Speaking about the EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting, Andrii Sybiha says he has "focused on efforts to strengthen Ukraine’s and Europe’s defence capabilities".

He also says he has been concentrating on "self-sufficiency, advance sanctions policy, and proceeding on Ukraine’s EU accession path".

Image source, EPA

More now from Brussels, where foreign affairs ministers from across the European Union are gathering this morning.

They will be discussing the ongoing war in Ukraine, and ways to bring about peace, after an exchange with the Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha, who is joining via a video call.

The council will also discuss EU-US relations and the situation in the Middle East.

Image source, EPA

Image source, EPA

Which Ukrainian power plants will Russia and the US be discussing?published at 09:56 Greenwich Mean Time 17 March

09:56 GMT 17 March

Vitaliy Shevchenko
Russia editor, BBC Monitoring

US officials say they are planning to discuss the fate of a key Ukrainian power generating facility with Russia as part of peace talks.

Although they did not name the facility, it is likely to be the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe. It has been occupied by Russian forces since March 2022, and fears of a nuclear accident have persisted due to fighting in the area.

As we reported, US President Trump said on Sunday evening that he and President Putin will be “talking about power plants” in their telephone conversation on Tuesday.

Although he used the phrase in the plural, there do not appear to be any other power plants so big and so close to the front line that they could be discussed as bargaining chips in key negotiations.

Image source, Reuters

Earlier, last Thursday, Trump said there was "a very big power plant involved; who is going to get the power plant".

Steve Witkoff, Trump’s envoy who spoke to Russia's President Vladimir Putin in Moscow also last Thursday, says “there is a nuclear reactor that supplies quite a bit of electricity to the country of Ukraine. That's got to be dealt with”.

The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has six reactors. It has not been supplying electricity since September 2022.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also suggested on Friday that the future of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has been discussed between Ukrainian and US negotiators.

In eastern Ukraine, Moscow's war machine has been churning mile by mile through the wide open fields of the Donbas, enveloping and overwhelming villages and towns.

Russian attacks have intensified, hitting the Donetsk Region harder, but also Kharkiv and Odesa.

Russia's biggest advantage is manpower and it has shown a willingness to throw soldiers at Ukrainian positions to gain a few metres at a time.

Ukrainian military intelligence says about 620,000 Russian soldiers are operating in Ukraine and Kursk, according to experts at the Institute for the Study of War.

Russia has continued advancing to the north east, towards the city of Pokrovsk, where they have been met by Ukrainian forces.

• Ukraine in maps: Tracking the war with Russia

Image source, Reuters

As we reported a short while ago, the EU's Foreign Affairs Council is meeting this morning to discuss the ongoing Ukraine war.

We've got a little more on that now from Kaja Kallas, the EU's foreign policy chief. She says she welcomes the peace talks in Jeddah, referring to negotiations between the US and Ukrainian officials in the Saudi Arabian city last week, where a 30-day ceasefire proposal was put forward.

"The ball is in Russia's court," she says in the video posted on her account on X, adding that whether they want peace is "a big question".

She says the conditions demanded by Russia for any ceasefire in Ukraine show that Moscow doesn't really want peace.

It's expected that there will be a news conference after the meeting today.

Stay with us and we'll bring you the key lines when it happens.

Russia will demand security guarantees from the Nato alliance military alliance and from the US in any agreement on Ukraine, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko has said.

Part of those demands include Ukraine's exclusion from membership of Nato, which is a major ambition of President Zelensky.

"Only through the formation of ironclad security guarantees will it be possible to achieve lasting peace in Ukraine," Grushko tells Russian newspaper Izvestia.

Image source, Reuters

Image source, Getty Images

If you're just joining us, or are in need of a quick summary, here's the latest:

• US President Donald Trump says he plans to discuss "power plants" and "land" with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Tuesday when they hold talks on ended the war in Ukraine

• Russia and Ukraine launched overnight drone attacks on each other, officials from the two countries have said
• The Ukrainian Air Force says Russia attacked the country overnight with 174 drones
• Russian officials say they destroyed 72 Ukrainian drones, some of which targeted energy facilities in the country's Astrakhan region, injuring one person and sparking a fire
• Ukraine says Russian forces have continued efforts to invade the Sumy region of northern Ukraine, following a Russian counter-offensive in Kursk
• The EU's Foreign Affairs Council will be meeting this morning to discuss security and how to bring peace to Ukraine. "The decisions of today will shape the security of tomorrow," Lithuania's foreign minister has said

Stick with us for the latest updates and analysis.