Does Harris's 'Trump tax' claim stand up to scrutiny?published at 02:10 British Summer Time 15 October 2024

02:10 BST 15 October 2024

by Jake Horton

Earlier we heard Kamala Harris say a "Trump sales tax" - a reference to his tariffs plan - will cost US families almost $4,000 a year. We've heard this claim before - but does it stack up?

Economists say that tariffs - taxes on imported goods - can increase prices for consumers but it’s not guaranteed that they would go up by as much as Harris says.

The "almost $4,000" figure comes from analysis by the left-of-centre think tank the Centre for American Progress, external of Trump’s pledge to increase tariffs on all imported goods to 10-20%, and all goods imported from China to 60%.

They took the amount the US buys in goods from abroad annually, figured out how much the new taxes on these goods would be and divided this by the number of households in the US.

It works out at $4,600 per household, but when you look at “middle income” families you get a figure of $3,900 a year.

Other estimates are lower. The Peterson Institute reckons the impact, external would be closer to $1,700 a year (for tariffs at 10%) or $2,500 (at 20%).

Trump insists the cost of his tariffs would be felt by foreign countries instead, external.

It is difficult to assess the exact impact of these taxes but studies, on previous tariffs, have suggested that a lot of the economic cost was ultimately borne by American businesses and consumers.

Fact-checking Trump’s claim about inflationpublished at 01:36 British Summer Time 15 October 2024

01:36 BST 15 October 2024

by Jake Horton

Both candidates have now finished speaking in Pennsylvania.

At his event a little earlier, Donald Trump said that, under President Joe Biden, the US had seen "in my opinion the biggest inflation in the history of our country".

Inflation under Biden was nowhere near the worst in US history.

It peaked at 9.1% in the year to June 2022 – the record was 23.7% in 1920.

Inflation did rise significantly during the first two years of the Biden administration.

This was comparable with many other Western countries, which experienced high inflation rates in 2021 and 2022, as global supply chain issues, as a consequence of Covid and the war in Ukraine, contributed to rising prices.

But some economists say Biden’s $1.9tn (£1.5tn) American Rescue Plan in 2021 was too big and estimate that it added between 0.1% and 4% to the inflation spike.

Since then, US inflation has fallen steadily, external with the latest monthly figure at 2.4%, as of September 2024.

When Biden came to office in January 2021, inflation was low, external - at 1.4%.

Image source, Reuters

Harris has been hitting on some of her strongest issues with voters as she seeks to contrast her beliefs with Trump's.

She calls for voters to research Project 2025, a conservative plan to re-make the federal government if a Republican wins the White House, and also hits on abortion and the 6 January attack by Trump supporters on the Capitol.

"This is not 2016 or 2020. The stakes are even higher," she says, referring to a recent Supreme Court decision that granted broad legal immunity to US presidents for certain official acts.

She says that the decision would allow Trump "to be a dictator on day one" if he wins.

Harris then plays a clip, a compilation of Trump calling his political rivals "enemies".

"He's talking about the enemy within Pennsylvania... He's talking about anyone who doesn't support him or does not bend to his will [is] an enemy of the country," says Harris.

"A second Trump term would be dangerous," she says, calling Trump "increasingly unstable and unhinged" and "out for unchecked power, that's what he's looking for".

Harris has taken the stage in Erie.

"Let's get to work," she says after taking the stage and thanking local Democrats.

She begins by noting that there are only 22 days left until the election.

"This is gonna be a tight race until the very end. We are the underdog and we are running like the underdog," she says.

She adds that "hard work" will be required to beat Trump, but "hard work is good work".

Harris then goes on to lead the crowd in a chant of "We will win" before pivoting to speak about the economy and her plan to help first time homebuyers - a topic Trump also discussed at his own event just minutes ago on the other side of the state.

"Under my economic plan we will bring down the cost of housing," she says, pledging to give $25,000 to Americans who are buying their first home.

Polls show that Trump has the voters' trust when it comes to the economy, moreso than Harris.

Like immigration, it is one of the issues she considered weakest on.

She also says she has plans to "lower prices on everything from healthcare to groceries".

Cai Pigliucci
Reporting from Pennsylvania

My colleagues have been bringing you updates from Donald Trump's rally outside Philadelphia.

I'm all the way across the state at a Harris rally in Erie in western Pennsylvania, where Senator John Fetterman has been hyping up the crowd.

It's a brief but important speech from Fetterman, who won this crucial county in his Senate race two years ago that ended up flipping the seat to the Democrats. He's recently made comments that he's sure Harris will win in this battleground state, and that he's not worried about tight polling here.

We're now moments away from Kamala Harris taking the stage and the arena is packed, with supporters holding signs reading Freedom. Chants of "We're not going back" and "Lock him up" echo throughout the bleachers at any mention of former President Donald Trump - a reference to his 2016 campaign rallies in which he often led similar chants about his then-rival Hillary Clinton.

Image source, Getty Images

Image source, Getty Images

After taking a question on the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and another question on issues facing black Americans, Trump begins speaking about migration.

"What's coming into our country now is having a huge negative impact on black families and Hispanic families, and ultimately everyone," he says.

"We're gonna close that border so tight. It's gonna be closed," he continues, though he adds that people will still keep coming into the country "legally".

He goes on to boast that his poll numbers with black and Latino voters "have gone through the roof".

The number of illegal crossings at the southern US border amounts to "an invasion", Trump continues.

"These radical left lunatics want everyone to come into the country, and many of them are criminals," he says.

Immigration is one of Trump's signature issues, dating all the way back to his his 2016 presidential candidacy, when he called for a wall to be built between the United States and Mexico.

Image source, Reuters

Donald Trump's town hall-style event in Oaks, Pennsylvania has just begun, with South Dakota Republican Governor Kristi Noem hosting as audience members ask questions of the former president.

"I'm gonna get real with you: Kamala Harris sucks," Noem says on stage, before leading the crowd in chants of "We love Trump".

After introducing the Republican candidate, she goes to an audience member who asks Trump how he will make homeownership more affordable.

Trump says that much of high housing costs are due to planning and approvals, not construction.

"We're going to get rid of them," he says about zoning regulations.

"I call the home part of the American dream. We're going to create the American dream for young people and for older people too."

Polling suggests voters trust Trump on the economy more than Kamala Harris, who has also pledged to reduce housing costs by offering help for first-time home buyers and providing incentives to increase housing supply.

Town hall host Noem had been widely discussed as a potential running mate for Trump earlier this year, before a scandal erupted over her openness about fatally shooting her pet dog.

Her memoir, titled No Going Back: The Truth on What's Wrong with Politics and How We Move America Forward, described how she killed her "untrainable" and "dangerous" dog.

Trump supporters awaiting the former president are being treated to classic rock and pop songs, including Miley Cyrus's Party in the USA and Let's Get It Started by the Black Eyed Peas.

And like at other Trump rallies, the audience stood, removed hats and placed their hands over their hearts as the US national anthem was played.

Image source, Getty Images

Image source, EPA

Image source, Getty Images

Cai Pigliucci
Reporting from Pennsylvania

Image source, Cai Pigliucci / BBC

In just over an hour, Vice-President Kamala Harris will take the stage here in Erie, Pennsylvania, kicking off a battleground state tour as she hopes to win over voters in this historically bellwether county.

One of the attendees here Rose Moore calls herself a "middle person" - meaning she's a swing voter who's not affiliated with a political party. She came with a friend who's for Harris to see what the vice-president is all about. She said she looks for "sincerity" in a candidate.

"When they believe in what they're speaking about, then you know that that's what they're going to fight for," she said.

Asked if Harris can win her vote tonight if she's sincere enough, Rose said, "It’s possible".

Moore is one of many swing voters in Erie County. Former President Barack Obama won the county comfortably in 2008 and 2012. It then flipped to Donald Trump in 2016 and back to the Democrats with Joe Biden in 2020 - both by slim margins.

But most people here tonight are staunch Harris supporters, including Janae Eppelbaum, who came with her daughter in matching pink Harris sweatshirts. She said it's important that Harris came to Erie today to speak to voters.

"I'm worried. We're from Meadville, and it's a more rural community, we see a lot of Trump signs down there, but I hope the bigger cities can pull it (out) for us."

Image source, Cai Pigliucci / BBC

From former US president Bill Clinton talking at a Kamala Harris rally in swing state Georgia, through to Donald Trump's supporters selling an array of Make American Great Again (Maga) products, here's a look at what's been happening across the country today:

Image source, Reuters

Image source, EPA

Image source, Reuters

Caitlin Wilson
Live page editor, in Washington DC

There are just three full weeks for US political candidates to convince voters to cast their ballots in their favour - and the Harris and Trump campaigns are sprinting towards that goal, full speed ahead.

Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are set to speak tonight in swing state Pennsylvania, which, with a competitive electorate and 19 electoral votes, is considered a must-win for both of them. Most polling suggests support for each is nearly evenly split.

In the chart below, you can see how support for each party's candidate has ebbed and flowed in recent months.

Trump's event is first, with the former president scheduled to appear at a town hall in Oaks. It's his second time in Pennsylvania in less than two weeks - the former president recently held a rally in Butler, returning to the place where he was targeted in an assassination attempt over the summer.

Harris will then speak to supporters all the way across the state in Erie, an area which is known for its "purple" political leanings - that is, a strong mix of Republican and Democratic voters - and which has faced major economic struggles in recent years.

Pennsylvania is a large and diverse state, geographically and demographically, with nearly 13 million people living in both urban and rural settings across 46,055 square miles (119,282 square km).

So, there's a lot to come but stick with us - we'll bring you updates from the candidates and attendees at both events.

Image source, EPA

Republican nominee for vice-president JD Vance is also on the move today, travelling to Minneapolis for a fundraiser.

During the visit, Vance went to the former site of a Minneapolis police precinct building that was burned down by protesters in 2020, after the police killing of unarmed black man George Floyd - whose murder led to anti-racism protests around the world.

Speaking to reporters on the street, Vance accused Minnesota Governor Tim Walz - who was serving his first gubernatorial term at the time - of having encouraged protesters to set the building alight.

Reporters asked Vance about how that criticism fit in with a 2020 phone call that then-President Trump was on, in which he praised Walz's handling of the unrest.

Vance said Trump was only being "nice and polite" during the call.

"I was polite to Governor Walz during my debate. It doesn't mean that he should have let rioters and looters burn down at the city of Minneapolis,” he said.

"That doesn't mean that Tim Walz can run away from the fact that he let his own city burn to the ground,” he continued.

Walz has defended his, saying that his administration tried to do the best it could in a difficult situation. You can read more about Walz's response to the 2020 protests here.

Earlier on Monday, Vance's plane landed at the Minneapolis airport just moments after Walz's plane took off, carrying the Democratic candidate to the neighbouring state of Wisconsin.

According to CNN, Vance also plans to travel to Chicago for a second fundraiser during his Midwest trip.

Kayla Epstein
Live reporter

There's been a lot of talk during this election campaign about election integrity - particularly as Donald Trump and some of his allies continue to suggest the 2020 result was in some way wrong.

Earlier, Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger criticised a controversial rule change in the state to hand count ballots in the upcoming November election. The rule change faces legal challenges.

Raffensperger, a Republican who oversees all elections in the state of Georgia, said the rule change "exceeds state law".

In an interview with the Washington Post, Raffesnperger said it could slow down the vote count, which could create a "breeding ground for conspiracy theories".

"They got pushback from both sides of the aisle," he said, adding that the rule raised "chain of custody concerns" and noted that a hand count will take "a lot more time". He went on: "Everything we’ve been fighting for since 2020 is, get the voter quicker responses, quicker results."

• For context: After the 2020 election, a recording revealed that Donald Trump had told Raffensberger he wanted to "find 11,780 votes" - to overturn the election result - when the final vote tally showed Joe Biden actually won Georgia. Raffensperger was heard on the call telling Trump that Georgia's results were correct.

Forty-six US states and the District of Columbia offer some kind of option for voters to cast their ballots in advance of election day on 5 November.

Thirty-seven of those states have already commenced early voting - and nearly five million ballots have so far been cast around the country, either by mail or in person, according to data compiled by NBC News.

Over the next five days, in-person early voting will kick off in the crucial swing states of Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.

Early voting became a widespread practice during the 2020 election, when more than 100 million voters avoided crowded polling stations during the pandemic by casting ballots before election day. Many states have kept these voting options in place.

Votes cast before election day have historically favoured Democrats, as Donald Trump and his allies have questioned without evidence the safety and integrity of early voting.

Republicans have since sought to persuade their own supporters to turn out early, but early numbers shared by US media suggest Democratic votes make up the majority of early votes at present.

We reported earlier on some remarks made by Donald Trump, that he believes Americans who oppose him are "radical-left lunatics" and "the enemy from within".

Trump also said he didn't expect anyone who voted for him to cause unrest on election day, and suggested using the National Guard or even military force to "handle" any situation that might occur in his opposition.

It comes after his supporters attacked the US Capitol building in January 2021, in a bid to prevent Joe Biden from becoming president.

Here's what Trump had to say in the pre-recorded interview:

In Wisconsin, another swing state in this election, Kamala Harris's running mate Tim Walz has just been addressing a crowd on his most recent campaign stop.

"To Donald Trump, anyone that doesn't agree with him is the enemy," he tells the crowd, referencing remarks the former president made to Fox News yesterday.

"I tell you that not to make you fearful or anything. I tell you that because we need to whip his butt and put this guy behind us."

Going on to mention the Democrats' endorsement from popstar Taylor Swift, the crowd cheers loudly.

Walz adds that Wisconsin is vital to a Democratic victory and calls on people in the crowd to get their friends and family to vote: "We need to get, especially young men, out there."

We said earlier that both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are today campaigning in Pennsylvania - a key swing state that proved pivotal in the 2020 election, backing President Joe Biden who was born there.

Trump is due to host an event in the town of Oaks at 18:00 EDT (23:00 BST).

We're told it'll focus on the economy, an issue that polls suggest Trump and Harris compete tightly on for voter favour.

Meanwhile, Harris will be on the opposite side of the state, in Erie, where as many as one in eight people are considered 'food insecure'. You can read more about the city of less than 100,000 people..

Image source, Reuters

We're hearing that Kamala Harris is due to make a rare appearance on Fox News this Wednesday, where she'll be interviewed by anchor Bret Baier.

During this election the conservative-leaning network has frequently featured interviews with Donald Trump and his running mate JD Vance, but none with the vice-president - although her running mate Tim Walz did appear on Fox News Sunday at the weekend.

Harris has faced criticism from Trump and Vance over her media availability, particularly in the early stretch of her campaign when the focus for the vice-president appeared to be holding rallies with supporters.

But as the election enters the final sprint, she's been on an interview blitz, appearing on MSNBC, a 60 Minutes special (which Trump declined to be part of), ABC's The View, The Late Show with Stephen Colbert and podcast Call Her Daddy.

Trump, meanwhile, has focused on alternate media and podcast interviews in recent weeks. In August, his campaign said they were targeting a key group of voters that makes up just over a tenth of the electorate in swing states - they're younger men, and mostly white, but the group includes more Latinos and Asian-Americans than the general population.

• Read more about Trump's attempts to woo the 'manosphere'

This November will see a new US president elected, with all 435 seats in the House of Representatives up for election as usual, but around a third of seats in the Senate are also on the line.

Democrats currently control the upper chamber of Congress by a single seat, but Republicans have several opportunities this time around and are widely favoured to regain a majority.

However, new internal polling, obtained by Politico from a Republican-allied group, suggests some of its nominees are not sitting as pretty as expected.

The polling also suggests that Republicans are out of runway in their bid to oust Democrat Sherrod Brown in Ohio, a state that has been trending red for the past few years. Plus seats being defended in Texas and Nebraska, by Senators Ted Cruz and Deb Fischer respectively, are now in danger.

Still, the party only needs to flip two seats to win back the Senate, and Republican candidates in deep-red West Virginia and Montana are practically assured of victory.

Image source, Tailored Films

Away from the campaign trail, a film about Donald Trump's rise as a real estate mogul had a disappointing debut in cinemas at the weekend.

The biopic grossed about $1.6m (£1.23m). It had a budget of $16m (£12.3m).

Trump's legal team had issued a cease and desist notice to stop the "marketing, distribution, and publication" of the movie, but they were unsuccessful.

The former president himself spoke out against the film on his social media account in the early hours of Sunday morning.

He called the writer a "talentless hack" and described the movie as a "disgusting hatchet job".