Summary

  • Voters in Caerphilly are due to decide who will be their new Member of the Senedd (MS)

  • A by-election will be held on 23 October following the sudden death of the constituency's MS, Hefin David

  • All of the main parties are fielding candidates in the election, and six took part in a live televised debate on Wednesday evening

  • They clashed over immigration, possible closures of libraries, problems in the NHS and trust

  • The debate has now ended but stay with us for all the analysis and reaction

  • You can find out more about the candidates here

Media caption,

Caerphilly by-election candidates state their case

  1. That's all - for nowpublished at 22:57 BST 15 October

    We'll shortly be closing our live coverage following the televised by-election debate.

    You can read a full round-up of how the debate went here.

    Voters go to the polls in Caerphilly on 23 October so keep up to date on the all the issues with BBC Wales News.

    Goodnight, and thanks for joining us.

  2. By-election date set for next weekpublished at 22:38 BST 15 October

    A quick reminder... Polling stations will be open on 23 October from 07:00 BST to 22:00 for the Caerphilly by-election.

    It was prompted by the death of former Member of the Senedd Hefin David in August.

    The full list of nominees are:

    • Liberal Democrats: Steve Aicheler
    • Gwlad: Anthony Cook
    • Greens: Gareth Hughes
    • Conservatives: Gareth Potter
    • Reform: Llyr Powell
    • UKIP: Roger Quilliam
    • Labour: Richard Tunnicliffe
    • Plaid Cymru: Lindsay Whittle
  3. Making their casepublished at 21:47 BST 15 October

    Here's a look back at some of the issues the candidates raised before voters in the audience.

  4. 'I have never felt so unwelcome in my hometown'published at 21:29 BST 15 October

    During the debate and following on from Cole Vyas' question about immigration his mother shared her thoughts on the issue.

    She grilled Llŷr Powell about the changes she had seen since his party came to prominence.

    "We're not policy, we're human beings," she says.

    "I have to say to my sons 'please don't go there'. Quite frankly, I blame you for that Mr Powell."

    Powell responded: "The level of immigration coming in right now is too high."

    Media caption,

    Caerphilly by-election: 'I have never felt so unwelcome in my hometown'

  5. Analysis

    What stands out from tonight's debate?published at 21:18 BST 15 October

    Gareth Lewis
    BBC Wales political editor

    Whilst the debate was wide-ranging, the most memorable section was on immigration.

    But not in the way you might have expected, and not from one of the politicians.

    It came from an audience member who said she was part of the "2.9%" of people in the area who had immigrants in their family, and she blamed Reform's candidate for making her son feel unwelcome.

    That said, Powell performed well over the course of the whole debate and Reform has managed to make a national issue like immigration resonate at local level.

    There was also a punchy sign off from Tunicliffe: It's a choice between Labour and Reform.

    The polls suggest a different picture and Plaid Cymru’s Whittle played what he hopes was his trump card: That he is a local candidate who gets what matters here, and that he IS Caerphilly.

  6. How will the constituency change after May 2026?published at 20:59 BST 15 October

    David Deans
    BBC Wales political reporter

    Caerphilly will cease to exist as a standalone constituency from May.

    All Welsh Senedd constituencies are changing - with a map of 16 being used from that time.

    Each constituency will elect six MSs, using a new list-based voting system.

    The idea is that it is more proportional than the system that came before.

    Next May Caerphilly will become part of the larger Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni constituency, which will stretch to the heads of the valleys in the north.

    Next week's by-election will be fought through first-past-the-post, though, where the winner just needs to get more votes than each of the other candidates.

  7. Who can vote in this by-election?published at 20:38 BST 15 October

    On 23 October voters in Caerphilly will decide who will be their Member of the Senedd (MS) for the next six months.

    Triggered by the sudden death of Labour's Hefin David, the constituency's politician in the Senedd, voters will select a new MS to represent them until May 2026.

    That's when another election has been scheduled to decide the make-up a newly expanded Welsh Parliament, with voters going to the polls across Wales.

    In this by-election, people aged 16 and above who are British, Irish or EU citizens who live in the constituency - and are registered to vote - will be able to take part.

    Polling stations open between 0700 and 2200 BST.

  8. What did Nathan Gill do?published at 20:33 BST 15 October

    Tomos Livingstone
    BBC Wales Political Unit

    Nathan Gill was an MEP for UKIP, and then the Brexit Party, from 2014 to 2020 and a member of the then-Welsh Assembly in 2016-17. He was then leader of Reform in Wales for a period in 2021.

    He's admitted taking bribes to make pro-Russian statementsin the European Parliament and on TV - leading to questions over whether anyone else in the party knew what he was up to.

    Llŷr Powell worked for Mr Gill, but only until December 2017, and says he had no knowledge of any wrong-doing by his boss. The offences took place in 2018 and 2019.

    Although some in Reform have tried to portray Mr Gill as a marginal figure, Nigel Farage has conceded that he "knew him for a long time", and says he tried to stop Mr Gill travelling to Ukraine, adding that he was "stunned" when the charges came to light.

    Nathan GillImage source, PA Media
    Image caption,

    Nathan Gill admitted to eight charges of bribery last month

  9. What is the Nation of Sanctuary?published at 20:28 BST 15 October

    Tomos Livingstone
    BBC Wales Political Unit

    Since 2019 the Welsh government has described Wales as a "Nation of Sanctuary" for people fleeing persecution and war.

    It's the UK government rather than ministers in Cardiff that control immigration and asylum policy though - so politicians in the Senedd don't have any control over who ends up being placed in Wales, or where.

    However, under the "Nation of Sanctuary" banner, the Welsh government does spend money on helping people resettle and integrate - around £54m in total over the past six years. For context, that's a tiny part of the £27bn the Welsh government spends in total each year.

    Reform want the whole thing scrapped, saying it's a waste of money and gives preferential treatment to asylum seekers. However, £45m of the cash has been spent on housing Ukrainians in Wales, who are not asylum seekers.

    The Conservatives also say it should go as immigration and asylum aren't devolved, but the policy is supported by Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats.

  10. Did people vote for 20mph?published at 20:24 BST 15 October

    Daniel Davies
    BBC Wales political correspondent

    An interesting exchange about trust in politics got on to the subject of Wales’s default 20mph law.

    Gareth Potter, the Conservative candidate, said "no-one voted for it".

    Actually, the policy was in the manifesto of the party that won the 2021 election: Labour. It was also in Plaid Cymru's manifesto.

    Potter also said no-one voted for the expansion of the Senedd, which he said would cost £120m.

    Labour’s manifesto said it would "build on" proposals to reform the electoral system and referred to a report that recommended expanding the Senedd.

    But the plan for the 96-member Senedd, which will be elected next year, was drawn up after the last election.

  11. Analysis

    'Voters might simply want a change'published at 20:16 BST 15 October

    Gareth Lewis
    BBC Wales political editor

    The closing remarks highlight a big issue for Labour after 26 years in power in the Senedd.

    Voters might simply want a change.

    Tunnicliffe promises to be a "critical friend" of the Welsh government if he wins - a tacit admission perhaps that the government is not that popular.

    The Conservatives, Lib Dems, Reform, Greens and Plaid Cymru all criticise Labour's record.

    There are also warnings from the others that Reform would represent a risky choice, with Powell suggesting they are the ONLY choice for change.

    With a tight contest expected, Whittle goes for the hyper local pitch that he IS Caerphilly, an approach followed slightly less tub-thumpingly by Tunnicliffe.

    Debate candidates face the audience on stage
  12. And they wind uppublished at 20:12 BST 15 October

    David Deans
    BBC Wales politics reporter

    All the candidates have given their closing statements.

    Hughes says all the parties there have had a chance. "The Green party is the new kid on the block," he says.

    Potter, of the Conservatives, says he is "proud to live in the Valleys" and "Labour has failed us for 26 years. It's time for change."

    Aicheler says a vote for Lib Dems "sends a message we have had enough" and that action is needed for communities.

    Reform's Powell says he wants to go to Cardiff Bay to hold Labour accountable on its record "on health, education and the economy".

    Plaid's Whittle says it is a choice between Reform or him. The longstanding councillor says Caerphilly ran through him and added: "I hope you can trust me. You know me."

    Tunnicliffe said: "It's either Welsh Labour standing for decency and delivery, or Reform that's standing for distraction and division."

  13. Analysis

    Reform on the back foot over immigration in Caerphillypublished at 20:05 BST 15 October

    Gareth Lewis
    BBC Wales political editor

    Llŷr Powell has been quite forthright so far tonight, but he was on the back foot on immigration statistics and their relatively low level in Caerphilly.

    He was there again when an audience member blamed him for feeling unwelcome in the area.

    But immigration is a big vote winner for Reform.

    They have driven a national agenda that resonates locally regardless of those stats.

    He was back on the front foot after an attack from Whittle on the Gill bribery scandal turning his anger on Labour and accusing them of running a campaign that smeared his name.

  14. 'What are you going to do to bring positivity to Wales?'published at 20:00 BST 15 October

    An arm in the air asking a question at the debate

    An audience members questions what the candidates are going to do to make positive change in Wales.

    He says the elected representatives need to focus on this rather than bringing "anger" to the country following a fiery debate.

    There are widespread applause in the audience after this question.

  15. How can politicians get voters to trust them?published at 19:57 BST 15 October

    David Deans
    BBC Wales politics reporter

    Labour's Tunnicliffe says he knows people are disappointed by politicians and he is not a “career politician”. He says trust needs to be rebuilt.

    Hughes, of the Green Party, says there is no trust in politics because politicians make "promises they can't keep". "They need reasonable things put before them that are obtainable," he says.

    Reform's Llŷr Powell says trust politics is at a "sad level". "I'm trying to ask for a mandate to ask better for this area," he says.

    Gareth Potter, of the Conservatives, said no-one had voted for the 20mph speed limit policy: "20mph needs to disappear."

    Plaid's Lindsay Whittle rejects the accusation from Tunnicliffe that he is a career politician. He says his colleague Adam Price wants a new law to ensure politicians who lie are removed from office.

    Liberal Democrat candidate Aicheler backs the 20mph limit, saying there are hundreds of people "who haven't had to spend time visiting relatives in hospital" because of it.

  16. Final question: How can we trust you?published at 19:54 BST 15 October

    Seren Martin

    Audience member Seren Martin says Labour has represented Caerphilly in the Senedd for 26 years, and "your government has made broken promise after promise, with the NHS waiting lists still increasing, children's poverty remaining stagnant and an estimated £32m spent on 20mph zones".

    "How can we trust your promises moving forward and how do the other party candidates intend on restoring public trust within our political system?"

  17. Analysis

    Candidates agree on improving health and social care linkspublished at 19:51 BST 15 October

    Gareth Lewis
    BBC Wales political editor

    We did not really get many specific answers as to how any of the candidates would improve access to GPs and reduce hospital waiting lists.

    There is agreement about the NHS remaining free at the point of use and that healthcare needs to be better, joined up with discharge to social care.

    On that, the Lib Dems say they'd look at an emergency Welsh tax measure if Westminster does not give more cash for social care.

    If they end up in a position to negotiate around a Welsh government budget it would be a potential talking point.

  18. Candidates clash on immigrationpublished at 19:46 BST 15 October

    David Deans
    BBC Wales politics reporter

    Is immigration a problem in Caerphilly?

    Llŷr Powell from Reform answers with a single word? "Yes." He disputes ONS figures, saying immigration has gone up since they were recorded, but asked if he has his own figures, he does not have any.

    "We need to get back to controlling migration," he says.

    Labour's Tunnicliffe says immigration is being "weaponised". He says it is serious but accuses Reform of wanting to "sow division".

    "Controlled legal migration has benefited. We recognise the very real concerns that are out there."

    Whittle says Plaid would be "proud" to support the Welsh government’s nation of sanctuary policy, and says Ukrainians are living in "fear" of being sent back and raises the admission of bribery by Nathan Gill, the previous Reform UK leader in Wales.

    In response, Powell said he found out about the bribery from the press. He said it was "traitorous" and should face the full weight of the law.

    Aicheler, of the Liberal Democrats, says immigration is not a problem in Caerphilly but the perception is. Asylum hotels are divisive, he says.

    Gareth Hughes, from the Green Party, says Reform are "making people who are coming to this country fleeing from war the enemy".

  19. Next question: Immigrationpublished at 19:35 BST 15 October

    A picture of a man with dark hair. It is a head and shoulders shot.

    Audience member Cole Vyas asked the candidates if they think that immigration is a problem in Caerphilly.

  20. Analysis

    'I am a realist,' says Reform candidatepublished at 19:34 BST 15 October

    Gareth Lewis
    BBC Wales political editor

    Reform is trying to pitch itself as the party of change at this Senedd election after 26 years of Labour rule, at times supported by Plaid or the Lib Dems.

    Llŷr Powell seems to be leaning into this with two early comments.

    "Every candidate here will promise you the world," he tells the audience. "I am a realist."

    He follows up later by saying that the other politicians will walk on stage and say they'll do things they can't achieve.

    There is no push back from any of the other five, despite criticism of Reform's lack of detailed Welsh policies.

    Llyr Powell on stage wearing a suit during the debate
    Image caption,

    Llŷr Powell is framing Reform as a party of change during tonight's debate