Ben Bevington
BBC News, Washington

With just one day to go, the race for the White House is deadlocked - both at the national level and in the all-important battleground states.

There is a compelling case to make for why each candidate may have the edge when it comes to building a coalition of voters in the right places, and then ensuring they actually turn out. Let's have a look at some reasons:

Trump could win because... he’s not in power

The economy is the number one issue for voters, and while the stock market is booming, most Americans say they are struggling with higher prices every day.

Inflation hit levels not seen since the 1970s, giving Trump the chance to ask “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?”

Harris may win because... she's championed women's rights

This is the first presidential election since the US Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade and the constitutional right to an abortion.

Voters concerned about protecting abortion rights overwhelmingly back Harris, and we’ve seen in past elections - notably the 2022 midterms - that the issue can drive turnout and have a real impact on the result.

• Read our full explainer on why either candidate might win the election, here

Image source, Getty Images

Tomorrow, Americans who have yet to vote will be greeted at polling stations by local election workers - some of whom say the climate of conspiracy and election denialism has led to them being targeted.

The BBC’s Global Story Podcast spoke to town-clerk Melissa, who helps train election workers across Wisconsin.

She says where previously staff had to deal with a “difficult person”, the behaviour they are now faced with is “more threatening” than before.

“Now it’s, ‘I know you’re changing my ballot’, all these accusations,” she explains. “There have been times in the counties that I trained in that the sheriff was called.”

“To me it’s just an escalation of being a combative voter, where I didn’t feel like that hostility was there before. Especially this centred hostility towards those of us who are administering an election," she adds.

James Coomarasamy
Reporting from Wisconsin

Pedro Fernandez is a sprightly 63-year-old, originally from Mexico, who has lived in the Wisconsin town of Whitewater for the past 32 years.

We meet in the warehouse of the community support centre where he volunteers to unload donations for the town’s poorest – many of whom are recent, undocumented arrivals from Nicaragua and Venezuela.

Donald Trump has said that Whitewater is becoming a “hotbed of cartel activity and illicit drugs”, after the local police chief appealed for more resources to help cope with the new arrivals.

Pedro expresses frustration at being stopped more often by the police because of his skin colour, but he’s also angry that, in his words, people coming to America illegally are being put up for free in hotels.

He voted for Biden in 2020 because his college-aged children persuaded him, but this time he’s leaning towards Trump, because of his promise to stop illegal immigration.

Image source, EPA

Over 75 million Americans have already voted in the presidential election, which could suggest a bigger than usual turnout this year.

It's not the highest ever - there were 101.5 million early ballots in 2020. But that was largely due to Covid keeping many away from crowded polling stations.

With one day of early voting left, the 75 million figure easily surpasses the total early votes cast in 2016 (47.2 million) and 2012 (46.2 million).

• Read our North American correspondent Anthony Zurcher's piece on early voting trends

Across the US, poll workers hand out colourful "I voted" stickers as a reward for voting.

The designs can vary from generic to vibrant, depending on where a person lives. While standard red, white and blue stickers are widely available, some US counties and states create unique illustrations that reflect local culture and landmarks.

A few local governments even hold contests, allowing children to submit drawings to be turned into stickers - boosting voter enthusiasm when their ideas go viral.

With polls opening tomorrow, here are a few standouts from this year:

Image source, Getty Images

Image source, Getty Images

Image source, Getty Images

Image source, AFP via Getty Images

Image source, AFP via Getty Images

A flurry of polls arrived over the weekend, each showing slightly different figures.

If you draw out the overall trends, rather than the individual points, Kamala Harris is just a point ahead in the national polls - with 48% to Donald Trump's 47%.

But the national vote shares won't determine the winner, which will likely be decided in seven battleground states that were very close last time and could be decisive in this election.

Trump has an edge of one to three points in each of Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina.

The other battlegrounds are even tighter. Trump is polling just slightly higher in Pennsylvania and Nevada, while Harris looks marginally ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin.

Important to remember: Right now the leads in the swing states are so small that it's impossible to know who is really ahead, because the individual polls that are used to create these averages usually have a margin of error of around three to four percentage points. Because the leads in all of the seven states fall within that margin, it means in reality, either candidate could have the edge.

• Get more on all the latest data in our poll tracker

Sam Hancock
Live page editor

We've just taken you on a whistle-stop tour of what a handful of countries around the world think about the upcoming US election result, including some, such as Ukraine and Israel, which will require the winning candidate's attention from day one.

If you missed that, just scroll down and have a read of our last five posts.

With parts of the US now beginning to wake up, we should have some campaign news before long - as we've been reporting, it's the last full day Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have to convince undecided voters before polls open tomorrow.

You can read more about their scheduled movements in our earlier post, but for now we'll continue to bring you the latest updates and analysis that we have. Stay with us, and remember you can watch the BBC News channel's ongoing coverage of the US election at the top of this page.

Laura Bicker
China correspondent

In China, people are following the US election with keen interest and some anxiety. They fear what could happen next at home and abroad, whoever wins the White House.

“None of us wants to see a war,” says Xiang, who's in his 60s, as the music playing in a park in Beijing reaches a crescendo and a nearby dancer elegantly spins his partner. He has come to Ritan Park to learn dance with other seniors.

They gather here regularly, just a few hundred metres from the Beijing home of the American ambassador to China.

In addition to new dance moves, the looming US election is also on their minds. It comes at a pivotal time between the two superpowers, with tensions over Taiwan, trade and international affairs running high.

"I am worried that Sino-US relations are getting tense," Xiang tells me. "Peace is what we want."

• Read more about what Chinese people want from the US election

Image source, Getty Images

Lucy Williamson
Middle East correspondent

For many people in Jerusalem, good allies never pressure, criticise or constrain. The war in Gaza has helped drive a wedge between Israel and its US ally.

Kamala Harris has been more outspoken in calling for a ceasefire in Gaza, and has put more emphasis on humanitarian issues.

After meeting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House in July, Harris said she would "not be silent" about the situation in Gaza.

Donald Trump has framed ending the war in terms of Israel’s “victory”, and has opposed an immediate ceasefire in the past, reportedly telling Netanyahu “do what you have to do”.

But many Palestinians see little hope in either candidate. “The overall estimation is that the Democrats are bad, but if Trump is elected it’ll be even worse,” said Mustafa Barghouti, a Palestinian analyst and politician.

• Get up to speed with how Israelis and Palestinians see the US election

James Waterhouse
Ukraine correspondent

Image source, Reuters

We're continuing to bring you some of the global views on this election, which you'll see in our next few posts.

It was in Zaporizhzhia in 2023, on this south-eastern part of the front line, where Ukraine launched a counteroffensive it hoped would force out the Russian invaders.

Instead, after little to no progress, Ukraine’s ambitions have switched to survival. Missiles and glide bombs slam into towns and cities daily, and its soldiers weather constant Russian attacks.

While Democratic Vice-President Kamala Harris has suggested military aid would continue if she emerged the victor, her powers could be constrained by a Republican-run Congress. And the pipeline of military support, which so far totals more than $50bn (£39bn), is looking less likely to be sustained under a second term for Donald Trump.

Whoever becomes the next US president will have a profound impact on Ukraine’s borders and everyone who lives within them.

• Read more: US election weighs on Ukraine's frontline soldiers

Steve Rosenberg
Russia editor

Image source, EPA

You don’t need to be a seasoned political pundit to understand that out on the campaign trail it’s what Donald Trump has been saying, not Kamala Harris, that’s guaranteed to put a smile on the face of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

For instance, Trump’s criticism of the scale of US military assistance for Ukraine, his apparent reluctance to blame Putin for Russia’s full-scale invasion and, during the presidential debate, his refusal to say whether he wants Ukraine to win the war.

By contrast, Harris has argued that support for Ukraine is in America’s “strategic interest” and she has referred to Putin as “a murderous dictator”.

There’s another possible outcome that may well suit the Kremlin - a super tight election, followed by a contested result.

An America consumed by post-election chaos, confusion and confrontation would have less time to focus on foreign affairs, including the war in Ukraine.

• Keep reading about Moscow's stance on the US election

Soutik Biswas
India correspondent

In the closing stages of the US election, we’ve been looking at what the vote could mean for countries around the world. Here’s the view from Delhi.

Indian experts see the US election as pivotal for India-US trade, immigration, energy, and defence ties.

Kamala Harris is expected to continue the Biden administration’s multilateral approach, supporting regional partnerships and boosting trade relations with India, which has seen a rise under her administration.

Donald Trump, however, may revive tariffs and a protectionist stance, potentially impacting India’s exports - he previously dubbed India the “Tariff King”. Yet, his presidency could help India replace Chinese imports in the US, although with trade risks.

On immigration, Harris favours expanding H-1B visas crucial for India’s IT sector, while Trump may tighten rules for unskilled workers, offering mixed outcomes for Indian professionals. In defence, Harris focuses on Indo-Pacific alliances, while Trump backs the Quad, both bolstering India’s defence capabilities.

India has historically fostered strong ties with both Republican and Democratic administrations, with Prime Minister Modi building a close rapport with Trump and further deepening bilateral relations under Biden. Though Trump has praised Modi, his remarks on tariffs hint at possible economic friction, with a potential win bringing tougher trade demands on “reciprocal” tariffs.

Harris’s Indian heritage has little resonance with Indians, as her public identity leans more toward her African and Caribbean roots from her Jamaican father. Unlike former UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, she hasn’t prominently embraced her Indian background.

Strategist Jim Messina says both the Harris and Trump campaigns believe the data indicates they're going to win.

Messina, who ran Obama's re-election campaign in 2012, says he hasn't seen this kind of mismatch in data since 2012. "So I think it's going to be really close," he tells our colleagues on Radio 4's Today programme.

He says more than 50% of early voters are women: "That is a historic number that shows you just how enthusiastic women are. And if I'm on the Harris campaign, that number gives me great confidence."

For Trump, early voting shows Republicans are voting in greater numbers than Democrats. The former president's getting a historic number of young male voters who are traditionally Democrat, Messina says.

This year has also seen the "largest gender gap in the history of American politics," he goes on, with women voting for Kamala Harris and men voting for Donald Trump. He believes it could be the determining factor.

Both sides have told him undecided voters are going for Harris, he adds.

Azadeh Moshiri
Reporting from Washington DC

We throw the word 'historic' around a lot during elections, but this one really is without precedent.

If Kamala Harris wins, she'll enter the White House as not just the first female US president, but the first black woman and Asian American president too.

And for Donald Trump, he could be the first president since the 19th century to win having lost a re-election bid, and the first of a major party with a criminal conviction.

Plus let's consider what it took for us to get to this point - assassination attempts on Trump and President Joe Biden forced out the race.

Polls close on Tuesday evening, but the chances are we may not know who of Donald Trump or Kamala Harris has won for days afterwards if the election is close.

National and swing state polls have tightened as tomorrow draws closer, so there could be very narrow margins of victory in several places, which may require votes to be recounted.

It's also possible that some results may come in more slowly this year due to changes in how individual states - including all seven swing states that will ultimately decide the race - have administered their elections since 2020.

On the other hand, vote-counting has been sped up in places like Michigan, and far fewer votes will be cast by mail this time than in the last election, which was held during the Covid pandemic.

In 2020, the election took place on Tuesday 3 November but US TV networks did not declare Joe Biden the winner until late in the morning on Saturday 7 November.

The president-elect will be inaugurated on Monday 20 January 2025, on the grounds of the Capitol complex - the 60th presidential inauguration in US history. So while we don't know exactly when the result will be announced, we do know when we'll see the next president sworn in.

Image source, Reuters

Trump's team seem confident - but they may be preparing for election fraud claimspublished at 08:29 Greenwich Mean Time 4 November 2024

08:29 GMT 4 November 2024

Katty Kay
US special correspondent

Campaigns on all sides often project the message they want people to believe, rather than the truth.

At this moment, the Trump campaign is expressing high levels of confidence. People around Donald Trump have told me in recent weeks that the former president will win six of the seven key battleground states.

They may possess some private internal data that informs their bullishness - or their optimism could be a tactic to hedge against a possible loss.

By loudly and publicly claiming that they expect to win big all across the country, Trump and his allies may be trying to soften the ground for claims of fraud if the election doesn’t go their way.

As we’ve reported, the US is facing a whirlwind of misinformation aimed at sowing distrust ahead of the election. Trump himself has already claimed without evidence that there is widespread fraud in the key swing state of Pennsylvania.

Away from swing states, Trump's campaign has been making an Instagram-famous pet squirrel who was euthanised by New York wildlife officials a talking point.

JD Vance, the former president's running mate, claimed over the weekend that Peanut the squirrel's death was proof the US government "doesn't want [people] to have pets".

Officials from the Department of Environmental Conservation say they tried to take Peanut into their care after they were notified the pet was in a potentially unsafe housing arrangement, and that the decision to put Peanut down came after he bit an official involved in the seizure.

Campaigning in Sanford, North Carolina, Vance said Trump was "fired up" about Squirrel’s death. You can watch that here:

The terms 'swing state' and 'battleground state' are used a lot during US election coverage - including by us - so here's a reminder of what they mean, and why these places are so important.

There are 50 states in the US but because most of them nearly always vote for the same party, in reality there are just a handful where both candidates stand a chance of winning. These are the places where the election will be won and lost and are known as battleground states or swing states.

Right now the leads in the swing states are so small that it's impossible to know who is really ahead from looking at the polling averages - but below is a look at the latest figures.

• Important to remember: Polls are designed to broadly explain how the public feels about a candidate or an issue, not predict the result of an election. Also, individual polls used to create these averages have a margin of error of around three to four percentage points, so either candidate could be doing better or worse than the numbers currently suggest.

For Americans who haven't yet voted, an important decision lies ahead. And with less than 24 hours until election day, here’s how Kamala Harris and Donald Trump hope to influence anyone still undecided.

Harris is due in the swing state of Pennsylvania, where she’ll be holding rallies in Allentown, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. She and her presidential opponent have spent a lot of time in the state in the last few weeks.

Meanwhile, Trump will tour three different battlegrounds today - making appearances in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

We'll bring you updates from those campaign stops when they happen, but with the time difference that won't be for quite a while yet as a lot of the US is currently asleep.