Image source, PA Media

Keir Starmer has just wrapped up his speech at the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) conference in Chelmsford.

He didn't mention the wrangling over his government's proposed welfare changes, and stuck solely to business and trade.

For now, here's a look at the key bits on trade:

• 'I'm fighting for you': Stamer unveiled a new vision for trade aimed at boosting exports and protecting UK companies, telling businesses he would "back them to the hilt" as they face a "more volatile world"
• Not going anywhere: "We live in a different world now and we need to recognise that," he said, referencing Donald Trump's sweeping import taxes
• When life gives you lemons: The PM insisted, however, that "this is a great moment" for British trade - and that recent deals struck with India, the US and EU have "restored our identity"
• 'Defiantly open for business': Starmer also suggested he would pursue a series of small deals - namely, on clean energy and digital - alongside these large international agreements
• On defence: He told the BCC conference that "most importantly, in this uncertain and challenging world, we will also give ourselves new powers on trade defence"

The government's welfare changes are designed to reduce the overall working-age welfare bill by about £5bn by the end of the decade.

But Tom Waters, an associate director at the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS), says the legacy of these suggested changes is "potentially quite a lot bigger than that".

"We think it's more like £11bn once these reforms are fully rolled out," which the independent think tank says could be felt "some way into the 2030s".

Waters explains that this is because the changes will slowly affect more and more people as more claimants receive these benefits in the coming years.

"It will still leave spending well above its pre-pandemic levels," he notes.

For context: Before the pandemic, the UK spent £36bn a year on these kinds of benefits, and last year, the government spent £52bn a year, which is a £16bn rise over five years, Waters explains.

Simon Jack
Business editor, reporting from the BCC conference

As we mentioned earlier, Starmer's speech at the conference this morning is focused on trade, not welfare.

The prime minister told the BCC conference that he did not think the world would be going back to the arrangements that existed before Donald Trump introduced a raft of new tariffs.

"We live in a different world now and we need to recognise that".

He said that Britain's ability to operate in this new environment was demonstrated with deals done with the US, India and the EU reset.

Simon Jack
Business editor, reporting from the BCC conference

Image source, PA Media

As we've reported, Prime Minister Keir Starmer is attending a British Chambers of Commerce conference this morning.

Business confidence among delegates is pretty downbeat.

An unscientific sample of the hundreds of leaders here reveals a business community that has not forgiven the government for hitting them with £25 billion in employment taxes at last autumn's budget.

There is also frustration that so few cabinet members have real business experience.

With inflation-busting rises in national living wage and a raft of new employment rights working their way through parliament, there is widespread agreement that hiring people has become more risky and expensive prompting many to dial down hiring and increase investment in automation.

Keir Starmer opened his speech with an admission that the government had "asked a lot of you - I get that".

While we wait to hear from Starmer, BBC Radio 5Live's Nicky Campbell is speaking to callers on the proposed changes to welfare, including claimants.

You can follow along by clicking Watch live at the top of this page.

We're expecting the Prime Minister Keir Starmer to speak at a news conference shortly, though welfare changes will not be the main focus of his speech.

That's because the prime minister will be speaking on trade at the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) conference, though he may get a question or two from the audience.

He's expected to begin at 09:15. Stay with us for the latest lines on welfare if we get them.

We've been mentioning universal credit (UC) and personal independent payments (Pip) a lot this morning, but what are they?

Personal independence payment (Pip) is the main disability benefit in England and Wales, with more than 3.7 million claimants.

A person can claim it if they find it difficult to do everyday tasks because of disability or a long-term physical or mental health condition. Pip is made up of a daily living component and a mobility component - claimants may be eligible for one or both.

It is paid every four weeks, tax free, with single payments ranging from £29.20 to £110.40.

Universal credit (UC) is a monthly payment, currently claimed by 7.5 million people, to help with living costs. Nearly 40% of claimants have jobs.

Around three million people on UC have no requirement to find work due to their health - but this could change.

The basic level is paid at £400.14 a month to a single person who is 25 or over, but claimants unable to work get an extra top-up worth £423.27 - more than doubling their monthly allowance.

One of the issues that rebel MPs are citing is the number of people who could be impacted by these proposed reforms.

About 3.2 million families could lose out financially, external, the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) says, with an average loss of £1,720 per year.

Personal independence payment (Pip):

• Current recipients: 370,000 would no longer qualify
• Future recipients: 430,000 would get less than they would previously have been entitled to, with an average loss of £4,500 per year

Universal credit (UC):

• Current recipients: 2.25 million would be affected, with an average loss of £500 a year, although this will be partially offset by the increase in the standard allowance of UC
• Future recipients: 730,000 would lose an average of £3,000 per year

However, these calculations don't take into account the effects of the extra £1bn the government says it will spend to help those with disabilities and long-term health conditions find work. It expects this support will mitigate some of the predicted financial losses.

In addition, the DWP said 3.8 million families will gain an average of £420 a year as a result of the increase in the standard UC allowance and changes to the assessment process.

Image source, Getty Images

The proposed bill will change assessments for personal independence payment (Pip) and universal credit (UC) and, in some cases, the amount people receive.

Pip, which is paid to 3.7 million people who have a long-term physical or mental health condition, is made up of two elements: a daily living component and a mobility component.

Under the proposed changes, assessments for the daily living part will be tightened, while reassessments will also become more frequent.

Those with the highest levels of a permanent condition or disability, however, will no longer face reassessment.

As for UC, which is paid to 7.5 million people, the government plans to make changes to an extra top-up received by some claimants who are unable to work due to disability or a long-term health issue.

This includes cutting how much they receive and completely scrapping the top-up for those aged 22 and under.

The work capability assessment, which checks eligibility for the health related top-up, will be fully scrapped by 2028.

For those on the basic payment level for UC, however, the government says payments will rise.

• Read more: What are the Pip and universal credit changes and who is affected?

Image source, PA Media

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is also said to be involved in talks with Labour rebels.

Earlier, sources suggested Reeves was "digging in" on the issue. Some Labour MPs believe her fiscal rules are partly to blame for the current situation.

For context, Reeves promised to stick to her "ironclad" fiscal rules, which include making sure debt is falling as a share of national income by the end of this parliament. To help achieve this, she pencilled in £5bn of welfare cuts.

The trade minister is now questioned about the government’s own assessment of the proposed reforms, which suggests the cuts could push 250,000 people into poverty, including 50,000 children.

Does Douglas Alexander feel comfortable with those numbers?

“That number is contested for a number of reasons,” says the trade minister.

He adds that the assessment doesn’t consider some recent Labour policies, like funding for free school meals.

Alexander says we can argue about the statistics, “but I do share the ambition to see poverty coming down”.

When asked if the vote on the reforms will go ahead on Tuesday, the trade minister repeats Angela Rayner’s comments in the Commons yesterday, saying the answer is “yes”.

Trade minister Douglas Alexander has just been asked about his party's welfare reform bill, and whether they're heading for another policy U-turn, like with the winter fuel payment.

Alexander says what stands out to him about the MPs who signed the reasoned amendment is that there is "broad agreement" on the principles behind the reforms, but concerns about "implementation".

"Now normally on second reading you're voting on the principles of a bill and then you deal with implementation," he says, but argues that the concerns raised by rebel MPs have "brought forward that discussion".

"Ministers will be talking to those MPs over the coming days," he says. "We are listening, we are working and we are engaging with Labour friends to make sure the legislation is as good as it can be."

We’ve just heard from the shadow work and pensions secretary, who’s expressed concerns about the government’s proposed welfare changes.

Helen Whately tells BBC Breakfast that the Conservatives have made an offer to Keir Starmer: if he commits to three things, he could win opposition support.

• First, to “properly reduce” the welfare bill
• Second, to “get more people into work”
• And third, not to put up taxes in the autumn

Whately also points out that the government’s proposed changes would only cut the welfare bill by £5bn a year, saying “it’s not a tick” when the benefits bill is set to rise to £100bn by the end of the decade.

Labour MP Toby Perkins tells the BBC he finds the proposed welfare changes "very difficult to support".

“I don’t disagree that we need reform, but just because we need reform doesn’t mean that any reform is the right one," he tells BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

The bill would change how people are assessed for personal independence payment (Pip) and universal credit (UC). Perkins says the new criteria are a "totally arbitrary way" of delivering them.

He describes the proposed reforms as cruel, and hopes the government will "get to the right place" before the vote on Tuesday.

Perkins urges the government to "take a pause", saying: "Let's try and make sure we don't end up having damaging changes in amongst what ultimately, primarily, are some very positive changes."

Why is the government trying to cut welfare spending?published at 07:46 British Summer Time 26 June

07:46 BST 26 June

By Ben Chu

It is concerned about the rise in the number of people claiming working-age benefits in recent years and the implications of this trend for the public finances.

Last Autumn, the government projected that the numbers of working-age claimants of Pip in England and Wales would rise from 2.7 million in 2023-24 to 4.3 million in 2029-30, external, an increase of 1.6 million.

At that time, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the government's official forecaster, projected, external that the overall cost of the working-age benefit system would rise from £48.5bn in 2024 to £75.7bn by 2030.

That would have represented an increase from 1.7% of the size of the UK economy to 2.2%, roughly the size of current spending on defence.

Ministers argue that this rising bill needs to be brought under control and that changes to the welfare system are part of that effort.

It is worth noting that - even after factoring in the planned cuts - the OBR still projected, external this bill to continue to rise in cash terms to £72.3bn by 2030.

And the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) still projected , externalthe total number of working-age Pip recipients to rise by 1.2 million between 2023 and 2030 after the cuts.

In this sense, the main effect of the Pip cuts would be to reduce the increase in claimants that would otherwise have occurred.

Trade minister Douglas Alexander is speaking now to BBC Breakfast - we'll bring you the key lines as he's asked about the welfare bill.

Image source, Reuters

Just yesterday, Keir Starmer stood firm when asked about his proposed welfare changes.

Speaking to the media, Starmer said the Labour Party was "pretty united" on reforming the welfare system and dismissed criticism as "noises off".

Earlier, his deputy Angela Rayner told the House of Commons that a vote on the government's welfare bill will go ahead as planned on Tuesday.

In his conference with reporters, Starmer admitted that making changes to welfare was "tough going" but said, "the important thing is to focus on the change that we want to bring about".

He argued that the current welfare system "doesn't work as it stands for people who desperately need help to get into work or for people who need protection".

"We were elected in to change that which is broken, and that's what we will do, and that's why we will press ahead with reforms," he added.

Image source, Getty Images

The row over Keir Starmer’s proposed welfare changes began when more than 130 MPs, including 120 from Labour, signed an amendment to reject plans to cut disability and sickness-related benefit payments.

The government says the changes will save £5bn a year by 2030.

Cabinet ministers have reportedly been calling Labour MPs to ask them to take their names off the amendment. So far, only one Labour MP, Samantha Niblett, has removed her name.

MPs who signed the amendment include both new MPs from the 2024 intake and those who were in Parliament before Labour’s election win.

The rebels say they oppose the plans because of the number of people expected to be pushed into relative poverty, a lack of consultation, and what they say is an inadequate impact assessment on the jobs market.

Henry Zeffman
Chief political correspondent

More for you on this story now.

A No 10 source tells the BBC: "Delivering fundamental change is not easy, and we all want to get it right, so of course we're talking to colleagues about the bill and the changes it will bring.

"We want to start delivering this together on Tuesday."

The source adds: "The broken welfare system is failing the most vulnerable and holding too many people back.

"It's fair and responsible to fix it. There is broad consensus across the party on this."

Henry Zeffman
Chief political correspondent

Downing Street has confirmed it is in talks with Labour MPs about possible changes to the government's welfare policies.

In a notable softening of tone, No 10 said that they "want" to hold a vote on Tuesday - as is currently planned - and admitted that getting the policy right was "not easy".

This is a developing story, we'll have more for you on this shortly.