A drop in study visas follows rule change on family memberspublished at 11:15 Greenwich Mean Time

11:15 GMT

Hazel Shearing
Education correspondent

In recent years, most people moving to the UK from outside of the EU have come to study, according to the Office for National Statistics data.

But the new estimates suggest work is now the main motivation, with education slipping into second place.

Universities, which have become increasingly reliant on the higher fees paid by international students, have warned about falling admissions.

According to data released by the Home Office today, 392,969 visas were issued to international students between October 2023 and September 2024.

That's 19% less than the previous year, although it's still nearly 50% higher than before the pandemic.

The drop comes after rules introduced in January stopped most international students bringing family members with them.

The number of visas granted to dependents fell to 46,961. That's a 69% drop compared to the year before - although it is almost three times higher than in 2019.

There has been a 62% fall in the number of visas issued to Nigerian students, as the country grapples with a currency crisis.

The fall in net migration in the year to June 2024 has been driven in part by a rise in people leaving the UK, most notably those who came on study-related visas, the Office for National Statistics says.

It estimates that 1.2m people came to live in the UK in this period, down from its revised estimate of 1.3m in the year ending June 2023.

Its provisional estimate of long-term emigration is 479,000, higher than its updated estimate of 414,000 in the last year.

Of the 479,000 people who left the UK this year:

• around 44% (211,000) were EU+ nationals
• 39% (189,000) were non-EU+ nationals
• 16% (79,000) were British nationals

It adds that 60% of the non-EU+ nationals who left the UK in the year to June 2024 had arrived for study-related reasons, and were completing their courses and leaving.

Image source, Getty Images

While we've been looking at net migration statistics from the Office for National Statistics, the Home Office has also published immigration statistics for the year ending September 2024.

These figures cover a slightly different timeframe to the ONS, and have a different scope.

Home Office figures show that 99,790 people claimed asylum for this 12-month period ending in September (just over 77,066 cases - sometimes a group of people can be classed as one case).

Since the year ending September 2021, the number of those claiming asylum has "more than doubled", the Home Office says today.

More than 133,400 people were waiting for an initial decision on their asylum case as of the end of September.

Meanwhile, 89,250 grants of leave were offered "via safe and legal (humanitarian) routes to come into, or remain in, the UK".

That's a figure that is 19% lower than the previous year - a drop the Home Office attributes primarily to a reduction in visas and extensions granted on the Ukraine schemes.

Image source, PA Media

Two former home secretaries from the previous Conservative government are claiming credit for the fall in net migration in the year to June 2024.

Suella Braverman - who held the role twice - says a "20% drop in immigration since June 2023 is a result of the changes I fought for and introduced in May 2023 as home secretary".

That was "when we started to turn the tide" on migration, she says, adding that the estimated 1.2m people who came to the UK during the year to June 2024 is "still too high" and that "we need radical change".

James Cleverly says today's figures are the "first to show the impact of changes" he brought in when he was in post- changes that he says the Labour Party "opposed and haven't fully implemented".

ONS director Mary Gregory says long-term international migration to the UK has been at "unprecedented levels" since 2021.

"This has been driven by a variety of factors, including the war in Ukraine and the effects of the post-Brexit immigration system," she says.

"Pent-up demand for study-related immigration because of travel restrictions during the coronavirus pandemic also had an impact."

She adds that while remaining high historically, net migration is "beginning to fall" - as the figures today demonstrate.

Across the 12 month period to June 2024 "we have seen a fall in immigration, driven by declining numbers of dependants on study visas coming from outside the EU," Gregory says.

"Over the first six months of 2024, we are also seeing decreases in the number of people arriving for work-related reasons. This is partly related to policy changes earlier this year and is consistent with visa data published by Home Office."

Immigration has been underestimated, emigration has been overestimatedpublished at 10:19 Greenwich Mean Time

10:19 GMT

Mark Easton
Home editor

A revision to the official figures today finds the UK significantly underestimated the impact immigration has been having on the population.

Net migration – the difference between people arriving and leaving – is now estimated to have been 906,000 in the year to June 2023, the highest ever.

Before today’s revision, the Office for National Statistics had said the figure was 740,000, suggesting an undercount of 166,000.

The revision means that the latest net figure for the year to June 2024, calculated at 728,000, is a 20% fall on the previous year.

But the ONS says this number may also be revised, creating uncertainty about how trustworthy the net migration figures are.

The statisticians underestimated immigration and overestimated emigration.

In the year to June last year, the ONS now says 82,000 more people came to live in the UK than they previously thought and 84,000 fewer people left the country.

The ONS says it had previously missed 43,000 people arriving from Ukraine in the year to June last year.

The updated figure is also said to have made better assumptions about how many arrivals would stay in the UK for longer than 12 months, the length of time needed to be classed as a "long-term migrant".

As we've been reporting, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) says estimated net migration to the UK was 728,000 in the year to June 2024.

Today's release also gives increased estimates for previous years - we broke them down in our 09:56 post.

The ONS sets out that these numbers are "official statistics in development", meaning that they may be revised in the future as more data becomes available.

Other reasons given by the ONS include more information on Ukraine visas, and improvements to the process for estimating migration of non-EU+ nationals.

Biggest surprise is increase in last year's figurespublished at 10:01 Greenwich Mean Time

10:01 GMT

Henry Zeffman
Chief political correspondent

It was widely anticipated that net migration would fall in today’s statistics, and it has.

What has perhaps come as more of a surprise is that the data for the previous year has been revised upwards significantly, showing that at that point net migration was 906,000.

At a certain point, to many people, these will all just be indistinguishable very large numbers.

But the political significance is that they are much larger than the numbers political parties, most especially the Conservatives, had promised voters.

David Cameron spoke of reducing net migration to below 100,000. In 2019 it was running at about 180,000. We’ve come a very long way from that. This fall from the peak is partly due to changes introduced by Rishi Sunak but it’s still little wonder that Kemi Badenoch yesterday sought to pre-empt criticism of the Conservatives’ record, saying that her party had got it wrong on immigration.

These figures do not cover the period when Labour entered office but pose some political challenges for the new government all the same. Sir Keir Starmer has said he wants to reduce immigration. He will come under more pressure to identify what number he wants to reach - though expect the prime minister to resist doing so. But this will not be universally popular in the Labour Party.

Some Labour MPs are worried not just by a threat from the Conservatives but from Reform. Others fret more about a challenge from the Greens to their left. The complicated politics of immigration is only getting more complicated.

As we've said, today's headline figure shows net migration to the UK in the 12 months to June 2024 was 728,000. The ONS has also revised upwards three previous estimates:

12 months to December 2023: 866,000, up from the previously published estimate of 685,000

12 months to June 2023: 906,000, up from the previously published estimate of 740,000

12 months to December 2022: 873,000, up from previously published estimate of 764,000

The Office for National Statistics says today's figure shows a 20% fall in UK net migration.

That's because its updated estimate for the year ending June 2023 was 906,000 - today's estimate to June 2024 is 728,000.

Estimated net migration to the UK stood at a provisional 728,000 in the year to June 2024, according to the Office for National Statistics.

We'll get into what this means shortly.

The Office for National Statistics has just published its latest UK net migration figures.

As a reminder, the statistics cover the 12 month period to June 2024.

We're beginning to comb through them now - we'll have the key numbers with you shortly.

Emily Atkinson
Live editor

Almost there: At 09:30 GMT, the Office for National Statistics will publish its latest UK net migration figure for the 12 months to June 2024. (At the same time, we'll get Home Office data on asylum claims, but more on that in a bit).

Quick reminder: The ONS figure will show the difference in the number of people arriving in the country and leaving it.

Hold your horses: It may take two or three minutes for our team to comb through the figures - so don't expect a net migration number at 09:30 exactly.

This is not really about Keir Starmer's government: The figure will be for the 12 months to June this year - the period before Labour entered government - so the likely drop is a reflection of Conservative policies (our correspondent Tom Symonds got into this earlier on).

So what's the ideal number?: Labour's been careful not to put a number on it. For Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, it's a lot less than 350,000.

Rob England
BBC Verify

The number of applications for visas give us an indication of what today's net migration figures will show.

In the year to June 2024, about 94,000 fewer people applied to travel to the UK on study visas than in the previous 12 months, according to Home Office data from earlier this month., external

"Study visa" figures include family members or other dependants of students - but from January 2024 many students were prohibited from bringing them with them, under visa changes by the then Conservative government.

Applications for health and care workers and their dependants remained slightly higher in the year to June than in the previous year - this was mainly driven by a surge in the second half of 2023.

But care workers were also barred from bringing in dependants, under visa changes in March 2024.

Skilled worker visa applications increased slightly over the same period, with a noticeable rise before a government shake up of the jobs this visa applies to in April 2024. Applications have fallen since.

Rob England
BBC Verify

Twice a year the Office for National Statistics publishes estimates on the number of people moving to the UK on a longer-term basis (immigration), and those leaving (emigration).

Net migration is the number of people arriving, minus the number of people leaving, and represents the gain or loss to the UK population.

There are many reasons why people move to the UK, but the largest groups are those travelling on work or study visas.

Humanitarian visas - such as those offered to people from Ukraine and Hong Kong - and people seeking asylum also feature.

Detail on where people are from who are arriving or leaving is also presented in the figures.

Image source, PA Media

In a speech last night, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch admitted her party got it "wrong" on immigration, saying they "may have tried, but we did not deliver".

"On behalf of the Conservative Party, it is right that I as the new leader accept responsibility, and say truthfully we got this wrong," she said. "I more than understand the public anger on this issue. I share it."

Badenoch said her policies would include:

• A "strict numerical cap" on migration - although she did not put a figure on it
• Visas only granted to people who "make a clear contribution" to the UK
• "Every policy, treaty and part of our legal framework" would be reviewed, including immigrants' access to benefits, membership of the European Court of Human Rights and the Human Rights Act
• Zero tolerance for foreign criminals remaining in the UK

Minister for Migration and Citizenship, Seema Malhotra, has been pressed by BBC Breakfast on which net migration figure would be considered too high by the Labour government.

But asked multiple times to give a number, she declines to do so.

Instead, Malhotra says linking skills policy with visa policy is important - and the government has commissioned the Migration Advisory Committee to advise on skills shortages, and help them provide a figure.

She also tells the BBC the Labour government has taken "important steps" to tackle the backlog of asylum applications that were left by the previous Tory government.

She says they include recruiting a border security commander to do "all we can to disrupt the criminal gangs who are undermining our border security and putting lives at risk".

Pressed on having to open seven more hotels to house asylum seekers, Malhotra says the net increase was a result of inheriting a system that was "out of control".

Mark Easton
Home editor

Along with ONS estimates of total migration to the UK, we will get the latest Home Office figures on those who have claimed asylum on arrival, and are now awaiting a decision on whether they are eligible to stay.

Asylum seekers make up a very small part of immigration arrivals, around 3-4%.

However, there is concern that the number of people stuck in the asylum system will have gone up since the election.

At the end of June there were almost 119,000 people awaiting a decision on their application, but the previous government’s Illegal Migration Act meant the claims of many asylum seekers who had arrived by unauthorised routes were not considered.

Home Office sources indicate they expect the asylum backlog to have increased significantly - adding to the pressure on accommodation including the controversial use of hotels.

Shadow home secretary Chris Philp tells the BBC the number of people coming to the UK has been historically "too high" over the last "30 or so years" - including under Conservative governments.

He says even if net migration falls to 350,000, as some forecasts expect, that remains too high.

"The OBR forecast in the Budget a couple of weeks ago was about 300, or I think 350,000, somewhere around there, and I think that is too high, significantly too high as well."

Pressed on what the Conservative Party would deem an acceptable number, Philp says: "I’m not going to shoot from the hip."

A new approach is needed, he says, including moving away from low skilled migration and towards high-skilled migration instead.

"Let’s also invest more on technology," he says - adding that more automation would mean the economy could grow without needing high numbers of low wage migrants.

Tom Symonds
Political correspondent, in Westminster

The previous government restricted foreign students and care workers from bringing in family members, and increased the amount you need to earn to come to Britain.

Those policies are expected to reduce the net migration figure published today.

But a previous Conservative pledge to get net migration down to the tens of thousands is becoming a distant memory - as we mentioned in the previous post, 685,000 extra people ended up in the UK last year.

Keir Starmer's government has today announced that employers who breach the immigration rules will now face a longer ban on hiring overseas workers - up to two years.

It’s also increasing the number of law enforcement officers trying to track down people smugglers.

But unlike the Conservatives, Labour won’t consider ditching the European Convention on Human Rights, which protects the rights of asylum seekers.

Respecting international treaties - the government says - makes it easier to get the international cooperation vital for controlling immigration.