How much is the government planning to cut off the benefits bill?published at 16:17 British Summer Time 30 June

16:17 BST 30 June

By Ben Chu

The government’s original welfare reforms - including changes to disability benefit - were intended to cut the working-age welfare bill by about £5bn a year by the end of the decade.

That bill was expected to rise significantly in the coming years.

Last Autumn, the Office for Budget Responsibility - the government’s official forecaster - projected that the overall cost of the working-age benefit system would rise from £48.5bn in 2024 to £75.7bn by 2030.

That would have represented an increase from 1.7% of the size of the UK economy to 2.2%, roughly the size of current UK spending on defence.

Factoring in the concessions the government has made - in the face of a major rebellion by Labour MPs – analysts now expect the government to achieve savings of only around £2.5bn a year by the end of the decade, rather than £5bn.

That means the government will have attracted a considerable amount of opposition to deliver a saving worth roughly 3% of the projected 2030 working age welfare bill, although ministers argue that such savings are still vital to keep the overall bill under control.

Whately continues, saying that the welfare bill is forecasted to be £100bn by 2030.

She says the proposed changes to the welfare system are "woefully unambitious" about making savings, adding that after concessions it will amount to a saving of around £2.5bn.

Whately adds that the government's own impact assessment shows the plans "won't get a single person into work".

Image source, House of Commons

Now standing to deliver the opposition's response is shadow work and pensions secretary Helen Whately.

She criticises the government's plans, saying they are not worth the paper they are written on.

Whately says that the Covid pandemic saw the welfare system start to break, and it's now no longer sustainable.

She says that Labour has delivered plans that have been rushed, calling it a chaotic compromise. Whately adds that she believes the plans lack compassion and contain no meaningful change.

Will this convince Labour backbenchers?published at 16:07 British Summer Time 30 June

16:07 BST 30 June

Helen Catt
Political correspondent

Liz Kendall has tried to address head-on some of the concerns she knows colleagues are likely to raise

High among them is the idea that the changes will create a two-tier system - because anyone who claims Pip now won't lose it, but someone with the same needs applying in the future might not get it.

Kendall said it already happens elsewhere in the benefit system.

She also announced more money for employment support. But will that convince doubters on her backbenches?

Kendall now announces an extra £300m investment into employment support for sick and disabled people.

She says this will bring the total investment up to £600m next year, £800m the following year, and £1bn in 2028-29 - increasing total spending to £3.8bn over this parliament.

The overall savings and costing of the reform package will be certified by the Office for Budget Responsibility at the next fiscal event, she adds.

Kendall ends by saying that this is "the better future we seek to build for our constituents and our country".

The work and pensions secretary confirms that payments to existing recipients of the health-related top-up of universal credit (UC) will no longer be frozen - and that their payments will rise with inflation.

Reiterating what she said in her written statement earlier, Kendall says that no current claimants of the UC top-up or Pip will be pushed in to poverty as a result of the changes.

Image source, House of Commons

Kendall says another concern is around MPs wanting to see more details of the wider review of personal independence payments (Pip) - and to know that the voices of disabled people will be heard.

Today, she says the government has published the terms of reference for the wider Pip review to ensure it is "fit for the future" - you can read it here, external.

She says the review will be co-produced alongside disabled people, organisations, clinicians, experts and MPs, before the findings are reported to her by Autumn next year.

The government has listened to concerns about their initial proposals, the work and pensions secretary says, and are making "positive changes" as a result.

She first addresses concerns around changes to assessments for the daily living component of Pip, which would require existing claimants to score four points on one activity to be eligible.

Kendall says that even though nine out of 10 claiming Pip would be unaffected, she understands that this has caused anxiety amongst existing claimants who rely on the money they receive from Pip.

She adds that the government will ensure the four-point requirement will only apply to new claimants.

Continuing, Kendall says the government is quadrupling the investment on employment support for sick and disabled people.

She also talks through the new plans to introduce into law a "right to try" - the principle that trying out work will not lead to a benefit reassessment.

Image source, House of Commons

Kendall says that the system inherited from the previous government is failing.

She says it incentivises people to define themselves as incapable to work so that they can afford to live, and then denies them help.

The result is that 2.8 million people are out of work due to long-term sickness, she says, and that one in eight young people are not in employment, education or training.

Kendall says that this puts the sustainability of the welfare system at risk, adding that the number of people receiving Pip are set to more than double this decade.

Ministers reasonably confident ahead of tomorrow's votepublished at 15:45 British Summer Time 30 June

15:45 BST 30 June

Helen Catt
Political correspondent

The government seems reasonably confident that its 11th hour concessions on the welfare reforms will mean it gets the cuts through tomorrow.

What Liz Kendall says in her statement could be crucial to that.

There's no certainty on exactly how many Labour MPs still plan to vote against the cuts. The Conservatives haven't yet said how they plan to vote either.

The work and pensions secretary says that reform to the welfare state is also needed.

The principles in the Pathways to Work green paper - which set out changes to the benefits system - are "rooted in our values", she says.

Kendall adds that this includes the principles that those who can work must work, but those who can never work must be protected.

The welfare state "must be fair" for those who need support and for taxpayers, she adds.

Image source, House of Commons

Kendall begins by saying that "this government believes in equality and social justice," and is "determined to build a fairer society".

She adds that the "only way of unlocking the potential of individuals and of the country as a whole is when we collectively provide real opportunity and support".

Kendall says she's "proud" of the steps the government has taken towards this so far.

Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall is on her feet and about to deliver her statement to the Commons.

We'll bring you the key lines here, and you can follow along by pressing watch live at the top of the page.

Here are the key things we've pulled out from Liz Kendall's written statement - published before her speech to the Commons:

• Kendall confirms the planned changes to personal independence payments (Pip) eligibility will apply to new claimants only
• It's also confirmed that payments to existing recipients of the health-related element of universal credit (UC) will no longer be frozen
• Kendall writes that "no-one who is already receiving an award of universal credit or Pip will be pushed in to poverty as a result of the direct impact of the measures in this bill"
• The government has drawn up draft regulations that establish in law the principle that work will not lead to a reassessment for benefits - something ministers are calling the "right to try"
• She says the government will also commit to spending an additional £300m before 2029 on Pathways to Work, health and skills support (£400m, up from £300m, in 2027/28; and £600m, up from £400m, in 2028/29)

Jack Fenwick
Political correspondent

Downing Street says that government modelling showing 150,000 people would be pushed into poverty by the prime minister's updated welfare plans "doesn't reflect the full picture" and is "subject to uncertainty".

His spokesman says: "It doesn't reflect the full picture and as always any poverty modelling is subject to uncertainty, what it doesn't reflect is the wider action we're taking to lift people out of poverty and raise living standards, especially through work."

Asked whether the government could make any further concessions on the plans, he says: "As you'd expect the government is continuing to engage closely with parliamentary colleagues about the bill."

It's understood that the whips will continue to talk to Labour MPs unhappy about the bill throughout today and up to tomorrow's vote.

An estimated 150,000 people may be pushed into poverty by 2030 as a result of the government's welfare cuts, new modelling suggests.

The figure, published today by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP), external, is lower than the estimated 250,000 people, before the government scaled back its proposals.

The DWP says the estimate does not include any "potential positive impact" from extra funding, or measures to support people with disabilities and long-term health conditions back into work.

Image source, Reuters

While we're taking a look over that written statement, and waiting for things to get moving in the Commons, here’s what some of the key players have said about the proposed welfare changes:

After the concessions were announced, Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall said the government was aiming to deliver a "fairer, more compassionate" benefits system.

Labour rebels argued the original plans were rushed and would push vulnerable disabled people into poverty.

Despite the government's partial U-turn, dozens are believed to still have misgivings about the changes and could defy the government in tomorrow's vote.

The Liberal Democrats are planning to vote against the bill and have called for the government to bring forward its programme to help people into work more quickly.

The Conservatives said ministers had wasted an opportunity to reform welfare and have called for cuts to mental health benefits for all but the worst cases.

A written ministerial statement, external from Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall has just been published, ahead of her address in the Commons later this afternoon.

We're reading through it now and will bring you the key lines imminently.

Image source, Getty Images

The original bill set out changes to who could qualify for certain disability and sickness benefits.

This includes restricting eligibility for the personal independence payment (Pip), and freezing the health-related element of universal credit (UC).

Now Pip claimants will continue to receive what they currently get, as will recipients of the health-related element of UC.

Instead, planned cuts will only hit new claimants.

The government also reversed its plans to freeze the health-related component of UC. The payment will now rise in line with inflation for existing recipients.