Summary

  • Plaid Cymru wins the Caerphilly by-election with 47% of the vote in a record turnout - Reform is second on 36% while Labour comes a distant third

  • It's Labour's first defeat in the area for 100 years - Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth says locals back his party's "positive, pro-Wales vision"

  • With more elections looming next year, Labour's dominance in Wales is truly under threat, our BBC Wales political editor writes

  • First Minister Eluned Morgan acknowledges "difficult headwinds nationally" but vows Labour will come back stronger

  • Meanwhile, Reform candidate Llyr Powell is confident his party will win enough seats to form the next Welsh government in May's Senedd election

  • But it's 14th time lucky for newly elected Lindsay Whittle, who says in his victory speech: "The big parties need to sit up and take notice"

Watch the moment Plaid Cymru win

Live Reporting

Edited by Adam Hale

  1. What does losing mean for Labour... and winning for Plaid?

    David Deans
    BBC Wales political reporter

    For Labour, tonight's result means governing gets harder - literally by one Senedd member.

    Eluned Morgan's Welsh government now needs to find someone else to get its spending plans for the Welsh NHS, education and everything else it does. Last year it just needed the Welsh Lib Dem Jane Dodds.

    Before the death of Hefin David, Labour had exactly half the seats in the Welsh Parliament and was a seat short of a majority. Now it is two seats short.

    It's also a huge psychological blow - Caerphilly having been dominated by Labour in one way or another all the way back to the 1920s.

    For Plaid Cymru, this is a big deal. In a high profile by-election, the party has beaten Labour significantly.

    It's a big boost for the party months ahead of a crucial Senedd election, where its hoping it can form the next Welsh government.

  2. Labour candidate pays tribute to Hefin David

    Oliver Slow
    BBC Wales

    A man with dark hair and beard and glassesMatthew Horwood

    Hefin David had been Caerphilly's MS since 2016

    Labour candidate Richard Tunnicliffe, who came a distant third in the vote, thanked those who voted for his party, congratulating Plaid Cymru on their victory.

    He also said it was a by-election "nobody expected" to take place, paying tribute to former Member of the Senedd (MS) Hefin David.

    "Hefin was my friend and my mentor," he said.

    "His kindness, his passion for the people of Caerphilly and his tirelessness in standing up for his constituents has been the guiding spirit of our campaign."

    He also said his party would focus on preparing for next year’s Senedd election, hoping to send a message that they can "make a difference" in people’s lives.

  3. Labour 'deserved to be in the gutter', says Powell

    Oscar Edwards
    BBC Wales

    Strong words from the Reform candidate following the result.

    He's angry about Labour's campaign, saying: "I'm very disappointed and thankfully the voters had seen through their smear, fear.

    He adds: "They deserved to be in the gutter like their campaign belonged."

    Powell has left the building as the Plaid celebrations continue.

  4. Defiant Llyr Powell says Reform will form next Welsh government

    David Deans
    BBC Wales political reporter

    Powell came second tonight. He didn't give a speech at the podium but he did speak to a scrum of media, where he said he was proud of the campaign his party had run.

    "Our ground campaign is going to get better," he said.

    Referencing next year's Welsh Parliament election, he said: "I think next May we're going to form a Reform government.

    "We've got more people turning out to vote now when they've got a party they believe in."

    Llyr Powell

    Llyr Powell

  5. People of Caerphilly have spoken 'loud and clear' - ap Iorwerth

    Oliver Slow
    BBC Wales

    Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap IorwerthPA Media

    Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth said the people of Caerphilly have "spoken loud and clear"

    Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth said the people of Caerphilly have "spoken loud and clear", saying they had backed his party’s “positive, pro-Wales vision”.

    "This result shows that Plaid is no longer just an alternative," he said in a statement.

    He described Lindsay Whittle as a "tireless local champion".

    "[He] knows every community in this constituency inside out and will deliver real change for the people of Caerphilly," ap Iorwerth said.

  6. 14th time lucky for Whittle

    Mark Palmer
    Assistant editor, BBC Wales

    Lyndsay Whittle with his thumb upMark Lewis/BBC

    Lindsay Whittle has been campaigning in Caerphilly since 1983

    It's 14th time lucky for Lindsay Whittle.

    The Plaid candidate has stood time and time again in the constituency at elections for Westminster and Cardiff Bay since 1983.

    He now has the chance to shape the town that he was born in.

  7. Whittle wants a 'new beginning' for Wales

    Mark Palmer
    Assistant editor, BBC Wales

    Lindsay Whittle pays tribute to Hefin David saying he will be a "hard act to follow".

    "I will never fill his shoes but I assure you I will walk the same path that he did."

    He urges Cardiff and Westminster to listen saying he wants a "better deal" for every corner of Wales.

    "The big parties need to sit up and take notice.

    "We are at the dawn of a new beginning”.

  8. Analysis

    Huge cheers as Plaid victory announced

    Gareth Lewis
    BBC Wales political editor

    There are huge cheers in the hall and chants of "Wales, Wales" as Lindsay Whittle’s victory is announced.

    He cracks a joke to start his acceptance speech saying he’s not used to speaking first.

    This is a win in the Caerphilly constituency for Whittle at the 14th time of asking.

    He nearly breaks down in tears paying tribute to the constituency's late MS Hefin David as he warns Westminster and Cardiff Bay that Wales needs a better deal.

    "This is the start of a new dawn," he adds.

  9. Breakdown of results

    Here’s the final number of votes for each candidate:

    • Steve Aicheler - Welsh Liberal Democrats - 497
    • Anthony Cook – Gwlad - 117
    • Gareth Hughes - Green Party - 516
    • Gareth Potter - Welsh Conservatives - 690
    • Llyr Powell - Reform UK – 12,113
    • Roger Quilliam – UKIP - 79
    • Richard Tunnicliffe - Welsh Labour – 3,713
    • Lindsay Whittle - Plaid Cymru – 15,961

  10. Plaid Cymru win
    Breaking

    Lindsay Whittle is Caerphilly's new Member of the Senedd.

  11. Result incoming

    Candidates are on the stage.

    We're about to hear the result.

  12. Result is imminent

    Oscar Edwards
    BBC Wales

    The candidates are being called over to the count's returning officer.

    The result appears to be imminent.

  13. Time to reflect on the 'lessons learned', says Labour MP

    Mark Palmer
    Assistant editor, BBC Wales

    Alex-Barros-Curtis says the party needs to "reflect on the lessons" that the party has to learn following a damaging night for the party in Caerphilly.

    Multiple Labour sources say the party will lose and he admits it has been a "tough night".

    The Cardiff West MP says the party needs to have the "humility to listen to what voters have said".

    On the doorstep, he says Labour faced "a strange cocktail of local issues and national issues".

  14. Tunnicliffe arrives ahead of the result

    Labour's candidate Richard Tunnicliffe has arrived, with the result expected in a few minutes.

    The party is expected to come third, with Plaid optimistic that they've clinched it.

    Richard Tunnicliffee wearing a black suit, red tie and white shirt between two people in a counting hall.

    Richard Tunnicliffe is the Labour candidate

  15. Plaid Cymru leader most senior figure here

    David Deans
    BBC Wales political reporter

    Rhun ap Iorwerth being interviewed at the Caerphilly by-electionPA Media

    Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth

    It's a sign of how Plaid are feeling that they're willing for Rhun ap Iorwerth to be seen in front of cameras in the counting hall.

    He is the only party leader here. Labour's candidate Richard Tunnicliffe has been absent for much of the night.

    Speaking to a press huddle, Rhun ap Iorwerth put the contest in the context of the election to come next year, saying his party was "set on leading government next May".

  16. Things looking 'positive', says Plaid leader

    Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has arrived at the count, telling BBC Wales’ Teleri Glyn Jones that things are looking "positive" for his party.

    "Things are looking positive but I’ve been through enough of these counts to wait until the result comes," he said.

    While he wouldn’t be drawn on tonight’s result, he said his party’s campaign aimed to show they would bring "positive change" to Wales.

  17. A tense atmosphere

    Gareth Lewis
    BBC Wales political editor

    Reform candidate Llyr Powell has looked tense, but it is that kind of night.

    I asked him how it was going, and he too said he needed to look at the data, just as one of his officials did earlier.

    Nothing is shifting the impression here that, even allowing for the positivity from Plaid candidate Lindsay Whittle and Reform's councillor Jason O'Connell, that this could be tight.

  18. Reform candidate says his property and office were 'attacked'

    Oliver Slow
    BBC Wales

    Llyr Powell wearing a suit with a tieMatthew Horwood

    Reform candidate Llyr Powell

    Llyr Powell has arrived and has been speaking to BBC Wales’ Teleri Glyn Jones, saying he has been subjected to "attacks" on his property and office during the campaign.

    "It’s quite sad that our democratic process has come under attack from a militant group out there," the Reform candidate said, adding that he was “proud” of the campaign he and his team has run.

    He was also asked about a moment during the by-election debate, when an audience member said the party’s "rhetoric" had made her family feel "unwelcome" in the town.

    Powell said he was "surprised" by the remark, because his campaign "has been about government policies and where best to put money".

  19. Plaid deputy leader 'excited and frightened'

    Oscar Edwards
    BBC Wales

    Delyth Jewell stood between two people wearing a black top and a red cardiganMark Lewis/BBC

    Delyth Jewell says her party has orchestrated an "energetic campaign"

    Speaking at the count Delyth Jewell, deputy leader of Plaid Cymru, said she is "excited and frightened".

    "I think it’s been a really energetic campaign.

    "I wish there were a word for those things together, because there are two very starkly different scenarios ahead of us."

    Jewell said it has been "obvious the whole time" that it is a race between her party and Reform.

    "The momentum is with us, so no matter what happens in this by-election tonight, I think people’s minds will be focused," she added.

  20. Analysis

    Voter turnout could prove significant

    Gareth Lewis
    BBC Wales political editor

    A man empties a box full of voting slips on the table as counters look onMark Lewis/BBC

    The Caerphilly by-election has seen 50.43% of voters take part

    There were a few gasps in the hall when the turnout was announced and what this means for the by-election.

    The working assumption is that the higher the turnout, the better for Reform.

    That's something that has already been mentioned to me by two senior Reform figures tonight.

    But Plaid are pushing back against that with candidate Lindsay Whittle telling me that they've been "blown away" by the turnout of younger voters.