Four ways this shutdown could endpublished at 00:07 BST 2 October

00:07 BST 2 October

Anthony Zurcher
North America correspondent

Image source, Getty Images

For the first time in nearly seven years, federal operations have been drastically curtailed as the US government shuts down. And so far, there doesn't seem to be an end in site.

Here are four scenarios for how this could play out:

Democrats quickly break ranks

Republican Senate leader John Thune says that he is already hearing from some Democrats who are uneasy with the way the shutdown is playing out. He's planning a series of funding votes in the coming days to keep the pressure on.

There were no new Democratic defections during the vote on Wednesday, but if five more Democrats break ranks, the shutdown will end – whether the rest of the Democratic Party wants it to or not.

Democrats back down

Even if the Democrats stay (relatively) united, the pressure on them to abandon the fight is likely to increase as the shutdown drags on.

Government employees are a key constituency in the party, and they will be the ones feeling the pain most immediately from delayed paycheques and the possibility that the Trump administration will use the shutdown to further slash programmes and turn their furloughs into permanent unemployment.

Republicans make concessions

In this scenario, the Republicans provide some kind of sufficient guarantee to Democrats that they will help to extend the health-insurance subsidies.

It's not an entirely unthinkable scenario, given that Republicans are currently divided over whether those subsidies – which help their own low-income voters as well as Democrats – should be continued.

The shutdown stretches on (and both sides lose)

The last government shutdown stretched on for a record-setting 35 days, ending only after US air travel was on the verge of massive disruption.

If this stretches on long enough, it may not matter who "wins" by forcing the other side to fold. There will be more than enough blame to go around.

We are ending our live coverage of the US government shutdown for today, but you can stay up-to-date here: White House says layoffs 'imminent' with no end to shutdown in sight

As the public blame game continues, Republicans have released a new advert pointing the finger at Democrats for the shutdown.

"Democrats refuse to fund the government", the advert says before listing services they say will be impacted by the shutdown.

"Democrats are grinding America to a halt in order to give illegal immigrants free health care,” the spot adds.

Democrats deny that their proposals for a short-term funding bill will give healthcare coverage to people living in the US without documentation.

Alex Akhurst
BBC UGC/Eyewitness journalist

Federal worker Randall, a meteorologist, is considered essential at his Aviation Weather Center office in Kansas City - meaning he'll continue to report for work without pay during the government shutdown.

He doesn't believe the shutdown should affect services like his when there is bipartisan support for its continued operation.

"I don't like my pay being held hostage while the government fights over separate issues," Randall tells me, though he makes it clear these are his personal views and not those of his agency.

"Keeping the National Weather Service funded is something both parties typically agree on so why am I facing sudden loss of funds because Congress is fighting over healthcare or whatever?"

Bernd Debusmann Jr
Reporting from the White House

Image source, Getty Images

The White House is fairly quiet now by early evening, with many furloughed staff leaving earlier and reporters starting to trickle out.

There is, however, the faint dim of Mexican music playing in the press briefing room, where two large monitors are still playing an AI-generated image of Democratic congressional leaders Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer, in which Jeffries has a large Mexican-style sombrero and a mustache.

This video - posted by the president to social media - has been the subject of some controversy today, with Jeffries and other Democrats calling it racist and unhelpful to shutdown negotiations.

Vice-President JD Vance briefly addressed the issue earlier, and denied any claims that it is racist.

"We're joking and having a good time, and poking some fun at the Democrats," he said.

Kwasi Gyamfi Asiedu
Live reporter in Washington DC

Image source, Getty Images

Washington DC's restaurants and bars are getting in on the shutdown drama. Several are offering special food and drink deals for federal workers during the shutdown, a time when - although some workers may be required to report for duty - they won't get paid until after the government crisis is over.

The Trump administration has also threatened permanent mass layoffs during the shutdown instead of furloughs, in which employees are temporarily out of work.

During the shutdown, federal workers can get handmade pasta for as low as $10 at the DC Italian restaurant Cucina Morini. The non-discounted prices range between $18 and $23.

"We are just wanting to support the federal workers in this hard time, and nothing screams comfort like pasta," beverage manager Nicole Ramee tells me.

Across the city, bars and restaurants are offering discounts and new humorous menus as lawmakers spar over future government funding. The shutdown is the latest blow to federal workers in the city after the Trump administration began mass layoffs earlier this year.

But there's one catch: in most spots, customers must show their federal worker badges to receive the discounts.

Cai Pigliucci
Reporting from Capitol Hill

The last votes have happened for the day on the Hill and tomorrow is a holiday - Yom Kippur - so as of now, the shutdown is all but guaranteed to continue for at least a couple of days.

We'll be back on the Hill on Friday to see what, if any, conversations have happened to open it back up. There is another Senate vote expected then on the already-failed continuing resolution that previously passed in the House.

And despite the holiday, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson is set to address reporters here tomorrow.

The pain of a government shutdown can take time to fully develop. Democrats have maintained they have the support of the American people on calls to protect healthcare, and Republicans believe they can win the shutdown messaging - blaming it all on Democrats.

It's unclear how sustainable that is for both sides as federal workers continue to go without pay. Everyday Americans may start to run into issues too - including longer lines at airport security if workers stop going in since they aren't being paid.

That trickle of shutdown consequences may slowly start to stir outrage, and that may be what pushes both sides into negotiations.

Image source, Getty Images

The Department of Energy says it has enough funds to stay open if the shutdown is short. The agency says it will rely on previously budgeted funds to keep going for a few days, but in the event of a long shutdown, thousands of workers could be furloughed if the agency runs out of money.

But the nation's nuclear weapons will be secured, the agency says in a document outlining its shutdown plans.

"If there is a lapse of appropriation and prior year balances are expended, the [Office of Secure Transportation] will ensure that the stockpile is in secure locations and will recall employees as needed in the event that nuclear weapons must be transported during the lapse," the agency says.

Alex Akhurst
BBC UGC/Eyewitness journalist

Image source, Getty Images

The BBC has been speaking with federal workers who will be impacted by the shutdown if it stretches on for days.

One federal worker at the Department of Homeland Security, who asked to remain anonymous, tells us he is supportive of the shutdown, "despite working without timely pay".

The worker, who is critical of the Trump administration overall, says the president could use the shutdown to declare some agencies such as the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of Education as non-essential and keep those "he deems essential."

He says while he doesn't trust either party to lead the US out of the shutdown, he believes "the Democratic Party at least cares about the electorate and is not just ceding power to a man settling personal and political scores."

"This administration is pushing our whole system of government to the brink," he says.

Ana Faguy
Reporting from Capitol Hill

After another long day on the Hill, senators appear no closer to any kind of deal than they were last night.

The Senate has recessed, and folks are headed home, likely until Friday.

Tonight at sundown the Senate will begin observing the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur, meaning talks will pause for 24 hours until sundown on Thursday.

Chatter I've heard suggests that at least some senators are prepared to work through the weekend to avoid further damage from the shutdown.

We'll have to wait and see how that actually plays out.

Image source, Getty Images

The visitor centre at the US Capitol is closed because of the shutdown, preventing tourists from looking around the historic congressional buildings.

But for a group of schoolchildren, Congresswoman Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez is handling their tour today.

"We had a bus of kids from The Bronx and schools that came all the way down here for a tour ... so I'm giving them a tour," the congresswoman, who represents parts of The Bronx and Queens in New York, says in a TikTok video showing her leading a group through one of the halls.

The Trump administration has announced that it will be pausing roughly $18bn (£13.4bn) worth of funding into major construction projects in New York City, while the government is shut down.

Russell Vought, the White House’s budget chief, made the announcement on X, adding that the decision was "to ensure funding is not flowing based on unconstitutional DEI principles".

New York City, our US partner CBS notes, is home to US Senator Chuck Schumer and Representative Hakeem Jeffries - both Democratic congressional leaders.

As we've just explained, so far more than half a million federal workers are expected to be furloughed as part of this government shutdown.

So far, the Federal Communications Commission has confirmed its numbers. It says it has furloughed 1,044 employees, or 81% of its staff.

Here are estimated projections for several other departments, according to their previously published contingency plans:

State Department: 16,652 out of 26,995

Housing and Urban Development: 4,359 out of 6,105

Defense Department [Civilian workforce]: 334,904 out of 741,477

Environmental Protection Agency: 13,432 out of 15,166

Commerce Department: 34,711 out of 42,984

Department of Agriculture: 42,256 out of 85,907

Education Department: 2,117 out of 2,447

Small Business Administration: 1,456 out of 6,201

Veterans Affairs: 14,874 out of 461,499

Homeland Security: 14,184 out of 271,927

Social Security Administration: 6,197 out of 51,825

Health and Human Services: 32,460 out of 79,717

Department of Justice: 12,840 out of 115,131

Labor Department: 9,792 out of 12,916

Nasa: 15,094 out of 18,218

Treasury Department: 859 out of 2,714

Interior Department: 30,996 out of 58,619

The number of US federal employees set to be furloughed, based on government plans, is 587,183.

Furlough notifications began being issued this morning. Some people went into work and have been waiting hours to get the document.

Being placed on furlough means being temporarily taken out of work, so people will be at home instead, like a forced holiday.

Those workers also don't get paid during this time. They will instead be given back-dated pay when the shutdown is over. Even essential workers who must still show up for their duties are not paid during the shutdown.

Next, we'll bring you a breakdown of how many staff from each government department are expected to be furloughed next.

Shutdowns are not new, but they have been getting longer and more acrimoniouspublished at 21:07 BST 1 October

21:07 BST 1 October

Tom Bateman
US State Department correspondent

Image source, Getty Images

Millions of US government staff are now being told to stay at home, while others - in the most critical services have to turn up to work, but potentially without pay.

They include staff in airport security, air traffic control and the postal service; as well as up to two million troops and hundreds of members of the National Guard that President Trump has deployed to US cities.

At the heart of the dispute in Congress is a demand by Democrats to maintain healthcare benefits for some of the poorest Americans while many Republicans prefer cuts. Republican House speaker Mike Johnson accused Democrats of holding the government hostage.

Trump has threatened to use the shutdown to get rid of programmes backed by his political opponents. Chair of the House Democratic caucus Pete Aguilar said the president was prepared to hurt ordinary people.

Shutdowns are not new. But they have been getting longer and more acrimonious, in an era of deepening division.

President Trump has tried to link his opponent's funding demands on healthcare to the issue of benefits payments for undocumented migrants. As Democrats called his claims false, he posted a video of their congressional leaders, edited with one wearing a sombrero and a mariachi band playing. When the Democrats called his video bigoted, he posted another.

Imogen James
Live reporter

A federal worker who wishes to remain anonymous tells me that while "leaders of Congress are having temper tantrums" on TV and the president "is having a meltdown on his own social media app", millions of government employees continue on with their jobs, even without pay.

They "will continue the work that is required to keep this country functioning", she says.

The employee, who works for the Army Corps of Engineers, tells me that she's "rather conflicted" over the shutdown.

She says she doesn't mind a break from the "gruelling end of fiscal year - a year full of constantly shifting guidance and the ever present threat" of a mass firing.

She would "support a shutdown if anything productive comes of it, but I’m unsure anything will."

The worker is critical staff, and will have to continue to work. She will be back paid eventually, as law requires, but is sceptical: "We all know the administration views federal law more as a suggestion".

"I am absolutely concerned about my finances. I took a 40% pay cut to start working for the government last summer with hope that helping my fellow Americans would be worth the gap in pay."

Image source, EPA

Over 35 former park superintendents have signed a letter to the Trump administration requesting the closure of National Parks during the government shutdown.

Referencing Trump's 2019 government shutdown, the letter describes the "irreparable damage" National Parks faced due to the limited staffing, security and oversight.

"Joshua trees were cut down, people illegally off-roaded onto dry lake beds in Death Valley National Park, and trash bins overflowed", the letter reads.

They warn: "If you don't act now, history is not just doomed to repeat itself, the damage could in fact be much worse".

Kayla Epstein
US reporter

America's federal courts will be able to continue their paid operations through 17 October, the Administrative Office of the United States Courts says in a statement.

Most of their proceedings will continue as scheduled, at least in the early days of the shutdown. Courts will remain open by using court fee balances and other funds that don't depend on Congress passing new appropriations.

However, scheduled hearings might be impacted if a government attorney slated to attend is furloughed.

If the shutdown continues past 17 October, the courts will continue to operate under the Anti-Deficiency Act in order to fulfill their constitutional obligations.

The press conference with Democratic lawmakers has now ended.

Before it wrapped up, reporters asked House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries if he would forgo a paycheque during the shutdown - like so many other federal workers.

Remember: The president and Congress still get paid during shutdowns, but several lawmakers have opted to withhold their paycheques to stand with others who aren't earning during this time. Congress gets paid on a monthly basis.

Jeffries didn't quite answer the question.

"That question is not even a right one, because we're anticipating that this shutdown issue will be resolved well in advance of our next paycheque," he said.

Cai Pigliucci
Reporting from Capitol Hill

I asked House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries what it would take to end the shutdown.

Jeffries largely didn't answer the question. He said: "We're not interested in achieving any political result here. What we're interested in achieving is a substantive result to defend the healthcare of the American people."

I also asked Jeffries if he has support from constituents for a prolonged shutdown. A Times-Siena poll released recently said Democratic voters didn't support Democrats entering into a shutdown.

Jeffries says Democrats have support from the American people to defend their healthcare.

Chair of the House Democratic Caucus Pete Aguilar added: "I would just say, count me in on that poll. Right? I'm a Democratic voter, and I oppose the shutdown."

He went on to say that Democrats are working to have the government be an "instrument of good". It's unclear whether Democratic leadership will succeed in that message with their voters as the shutdown continues.

Image source, Getty Images

Also appearing at this press conference is House Democratic whip Katherine Clark, who criticises House Republicans for not coming back to Capitol Hill to help hammer out a deal.

"You've cut people's health care, you're giving their hard-earned tax dollars to billionaires in the form of tax breaks, and then you don't even show up to defend your own policies, your own bills," Clark says.

The Republican-led 'big beautiful bill', which was signed into law in July, includes tax breaks for both low-income Americans and higher earners. But nearly 60% of the legislation's tax benefits will go to the top 20% of American earners, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan research group Tax Policy Center.

Clark specifically calls out Republican House members Mike Johnson and Steve Scalise, accusing them of not fighting for the American people like Democrats are.