What form could a US security guarantee take?published at 06:38 British Summer Time
Frank Gardner
Security correspondent
At the heart of any future permanent peace deal between Ukraine and Russia will be some sort of security guarantee, aimed at deterring Russia from attacking Ukraine again.
Up until now, the US has been reluctant to make any commitment in this direction, leaving it up to Britain and France with their so-called "coalition of the willing". But after talks in the White House on Monday, US President Donald Trump said those security guarantees could be met by European nations in "co-ordination with the United States".
So what form could this take? There are broadly four possibilities:
- Boots on the ground - This is considered the least likely. Donald Trump views this war as Europe’s problem. For him to commit ground troops, even in a peacekeeping role, to a conflict he deeply dislikes would take a major about-face
- Air and sea patrols - This is more conceivable. The US has already operated surveillance flights to monitor the course of the war. But there is a world of difference between a non-confrontational reconnaissance flight or maritime patrol and an armed clash with a nuclear power like Russia
- Intelligence - US satellite and aerial intelligence have proved vital in helping Ukraine hold back the advance of Russia’s invading forces. In the event of a peace deal agreed to by all sides, this is one area where the US would probably be happy to assist
- Logistics - Whatever form the UK/French-led "reassurance force" eventually takes in the event of a peace deal, then it’s going to need a lot of logistical support - and this is one non-lethal area that Washington would likely be happy to help with