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The government's expected plans to release some inmates early to address prison overcrowding in England and Wales is "the least worst option", according to the Met Police Commissioner.

Sir Mark Rowley tells ITV's Good Morning Britain there's no "easy solution" and prisons are "very, very close to full and filling up day in day out".

He adds the "worst" scenario would be for the prison system to "block" because "that kicks back into the courts and into what we do and that's really dangerous for the public".

He says the government is "forced into making a rapid decision to avoid that risk".

Sunak refused to sign off on prisons plan before electionpublished at 10:46 British Summer Time 12 July

10:46 BST 12 July

Harry Farley
Political correspondent

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The idea to allow some prisoners in England and Wales out after serving 40% of their sentence - rather than 50% - is not new.

Before the election, the then-Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was under pressure to act to relieve the pressure on prisons.

In March, Alex Chalk, who was justice secretary at the time, announced plans for some prisoners to be released up to two months early.

But Chalk told the Today podcast this week there were also plans to go further and release some prisoners after 40% of their sentence - as is set to be announced today - and send fewer people to jail in the first place. BBC News understands that several Conservative cabinet ministers supported the idea.

But Sunak refused to sign it off and the election was called before the issue was resolved.

Asked if Sunak blocked the changes because it would be unpopular with MPs, Chalk said he wouldn't go into details but added: "It is reasonable to say there were a variety of views about what could be got through Parliament."

Whatever the reasons why a decision was not made, the impact has made the situation in prisons worse.

It is now more than six weeks on and there are just 708 available places in the adult male estate, according to the latest available government figures.

Mark Icke, vice president of the Prison Governors' Association, says the criminal justice system is on the “brink of collapse” as prisons are “running out of space”.

Icke, who was governor of HM Prison Swaleside in Kent until 10 weeks ago, says prison governors have been "warning for some time" that "we've got far too many prisoners in our system".

Speaking to Radio 4's Today programme, he says moving from releasing prisoners after they've served 50% of their sentence to 40% is a necessary measure.

"We've got no choice", he says, and so it's "the right thing to do for now".

He says he thinks "it will release between 8,000 and 10,000 people" to "give us some breathing space".

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Sir Keir Starmer said the "crux" of the problem facing prisons across England and Wales is that there are "far too many prisoners for the prison places that we’ve got and we soon will have".

The prime minister described the “predictable” situation as "shocking", saying it reflected a "gross irresponsibility" from the previous government.

He was speaking in Washington DC during his first Nato summit as prime minister.

“I can’t build a prison in the first seven days of a Labour government - we will have to have a long-term answer to this," the PM said.

“We knew it was going to be a problem but the scale of the problem was worse than we thought and the nature of the problem is pretty unforgivable in my book."

Harry Farley
Political correspondent

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The former prisons minister says the crisis in prisons is a “total disgrace” and the only answer is “to put fewer people in prison for less time".

Rory Stewart says both Labour and the Conservatives had “competed with each other on being more and more ferocious in demanding longer and longer sentences”.

He tells the Today programme on BBC Radio 4: “We should focus prisons on people who have committed genuinely horrifying crimes.”

He says people sent to prison for minor offences is “completely mad”.

“It doesn’t protect the public. It doesn't help these people get away from offending. And it creates these violent, filthy, shameful places which our prisons have become today.

He says his plan as minister to abolish short sentences would mean far fewer people being sent to prison.

“We have to be more patient in explaining that many of the people who are in prison today should not be in prison and putting them in prison actually endangers the public because it destroys their lives and makes them more likely to offend.”

Earlier, we heard from Mark Fairhurst, chairman of the Prison Officers' Association, who said if prison spaces get critically low, police cells - used to arrest people - will have to be used instead.

Fairhurst told BBC Breakfast: "If we're clogging up police cells, they're unable to arrest people because there's nowhere for them to go."

It comes ahead of an expected government announcement that certain inmates in England and Wales will be freed after serving 40% of their sentences, rather than 50%, to ease overcrowding.

"What we're doing is releasing people early who are going to get released anyway at some point," he added.

Fairhurst said that those convicted of sex offences, violent crime with a sentence of more than four years, domestic violence, stalkers, and anyone who has breached a harassment order would likely not be eligible for early release.

Harry Farley
Political correspondent

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Plans to release some prisoners early is a “dangerous gamble with the public safety”, the aunt of murdered law graduate Zara Aleena says.

Aleena was murdered by Jordan McSweeney, nine days after he was released from prison and while he was in the process of being recalled after his licence was revoked for failing to meet probation officers.

Her aunt Farah Naz tells BBC Breakfast if those released from prison aren’t properly supervised they can become “emboldened”.

She points to what she says was underfunding in the probation service, which monitors prisoners when they are released on licence and have to abide by certain conditions.

“If the system cannot deal with those people being released into the community, then those people are not going to be supervised adequately. When people - perpetrators, even thieves - are not supervised adequately, crime can escalate,” she says.

“Then we've got unsupervised people because of a poor probation service in the community and people become emboldened: 'Well I can do that what I like if nobody is supervising me.’

“That's what happened in our situation. It was a man that was emboldened because he was not supervised. He was not assessed. He was constantly allowed to do what he wanted to do.

“Therein lies a dangerous gamble with the public safety with this move right now.”

Sorting prisons issue is one of government's big testspublished at 08:16 British Summer Time 12 July

08:16 BST 12 July

Sima Kotecha
Senior UK correspondent

New Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood will visit two prisons today: Bedford, built in the Victorian era, and the newer Five Wells in Wellingborough.

She’s then expected to make a speech during which she’ll talk about overcrowding in jails, and why urgent action must be taken to stop the system collapsing.

She’ll spell out the measures the government plans to take, including releasing some inmates after they’ve completed 40% of their sentence to free up space.

A senior prison source says there are 700 spaces left in male prisons in England and Wales.

I understand for the system to operate smoothly and effectively, there needs to be a minimum of just over 1,400 free spaces.

Sorting out this issue is one of the first big tests for the new government and could be an early mark of its success or failure.

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Mark Fairhurst, chairman of the Prison Officers' Association, says prison overcrowding is a “mess that's been inherited by the new government”.

He's asked on BBC Breakfast what difference the government's expected plans - to release some prisoners after they've served 40% of their sentence rather than half - would make.

In the immediate term, he says it will result in 4,500 to 5,000 additional spaces but adds "it would relieve the pressure on us for a maximum of 18 months".

There are less than 700 spaces in adult male prisons, and when that number reaches 300, it marks a critical point where police cells have to be used instead, he says.

As a reminder, prisons need just over 1,400 spaces to run effectively.

The Prison Governors’ Association (PGA) issued a response, external yesterday to the government's expected announcement to ease prison overcrowding.

"The public must never be placed in this position again”, the PGA says, but it welcomes “the speed” the new government is working at to manage the crisis.

It says plans to release some prisoners early will create "essential space across the prison system; it goes without saying that these changes will not reduce future demand on our system".

“We hope that over the coming months a significant reduction in the prison population will bring some much-needed stability across the system. Prisons need time to heal.”

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Prison capacity is high on the agenda for the newly elected government following repeated warnings over capacity.

The government’s weekly prison population bulletin showed that as of 5 July, the population of the estate was 87,453 compared with a useable operational capacity of 88,864.

Twelve months ago, the population had been 86,035. In a letter to party leaders, external at the end of June, the Prison Governors’ Association said they believed “it is a matter of days before prisons run out of space”.

It’s not a new problem - and measures have already been implemented by the previous government including releasing prisoners under supervision up to 70 days early (a timeframe that had been increased from 18 days when the measure was introduced).

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, who has been at the Nato summit in Washington DC for the past two days, has told reporters that the situation is “worse than [he] thought”.

• Read more: Can early prisoner release really fix overcrowded jails?

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Former barrister Shabana Mahmood is the new secretary of state for justice and lord chancellor, only the second woman - after Liz Truss - to hold the positions.

A former national campaign co-ordinator, she oversaw Labour’s Batley and Spen by-election win in 2021 which some have credited with saving Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership following a defeat in Hartlepool months earlier.

Mahmood lays claim to being the first female Muslim MP - although she was elected in 2010 alongside Yasmin Qureshi and Rushanara Ali - because, she says, her count was the first completed on the night.

The Birmingham Ladywood MP represents the city where she was born and brought up with her twin brother, and has spoken of how her faith "drives me to public service".

Henry Zeffman
Chief political correspondent

Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood is expected to announce a suite of emergency measures to free up space in prisons.

The main measure will be automatically releasing prisoners on “standard determinate sentences” after they have served 40% of their sentence, government sources confirmed.

Currently they are released after serving 50% of their sentence. There will be exemptions for sexual and serious violent offenders.

A source said: “We have been given no option but to act in this way because of the shocking failure of the last government."

Speaking in Washington about the situation in prisons, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said “some of what we have found is shocking”.

He added that “the situation is worse than I thought it was”.

Welcome to our live coverage. Today marks Sir Keir Starmer's first full week as prime minister after Labour's landslide victory in last week's general election.

Today, the government is set to announce plans to release some prisoners early to stop prisons becoming full.

Prisoners on “standard determinate sentences” will be released after they have served 40% rather than 50% of their sentence, government sources have confirmed. There will be exemptions for sexual and serious violent offenders.

Meanwhile, Starmer is returning to the UK after attending the Nato Summit in Washington DC, marking his first international trip as prime minister.

Stay with us for the latest political updates, analysis and commentary.