Here's another way of looking at who might win the election.

The stock market has historically been a good way of predicting election results, according to one research group called Socionomics Institute, external. They claim that on almost every occasion that a president was running for re-election and the stock market did well (i.e up more than 20%) in the three years before the vote, the incumbent won.

It's another way of saying that when an economy is doing well, people are more likely to vote for the president who was in charge during that time.

Based on that thinking, the Socionomics Institute predict that Trump has 87% chance of winning the election.

"The stock market is an indicator of social mood," said Matthew Lampert, director of research of the group, according to CBS News. "Historically, a more positive trend in the market and social mood is associated with a win for the incumbent."

But other analysts say they believe the recent increase in the stock market is signalling a win for Joe Biden, not Trump., external

There are lots of reason this year could be different, in particular the pandemic, which has caused huge amounts of political and economic uncertainty. The majority of Americans believe Trump has done a bad job in managing Covid-19.

That view, plus other issues including a year of turbulent race relations, could outweigh the good performance of the stock market.

To see what the polls are saying about who might win the election, see our poll tracker.

Ritu Prasad
BBC News, Florida

We’ve been asking our readers for their most pressing questions about the US election. Now it’s our turn to respond.

Click here if you want to know more about this project or send in a question of your own.

Richard R, 61, from Malvern asks: When was the last time a US President failed to win a second term?

Republican President George HW Bush was the last incumbent to lose his re-election bid to Democrat Bill Clinton in 1992.

The late elder Bush was one of just ten presidents who've failed to win a second term (when they ran for one), out of a total 45 in US history.

The only others on that list since the 1930s are Jimmy Carter and Gerald Ford.

Want more? I'll offer up this read on what makes a one-term president.

Kerry Allen
BBC Monitoring, Chinese Media Analyst

Trump’s reported tax payments to China, external have delighted and bemused Chinese social media users, who have been closely following reports scrutinising the US’ president’s tax affairs.

Today, memes and comments referring to the president as “Comrade Trump” are lighting up China’s popular Sina Weibo social network.

Users are joking that he has been “paying his [Communist] party membership” and are joking “the motherland will never forget” his contributions.

But many are incredulous that Trump seemingly paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to China yet allegedly paid limited taxes in the US.

“He has paid China more than 250 times the tax he has paid his own stinky country”, says one user, noting the recent report alleging Mr Trump paid just $750 (£580) in 2016 and 2017.

Others are incredulous that the US president was seemingly pursuing a trade war with China while he had his own personal Chinese interests.

China loves a tax scandal; in October 2018, its authorities punished one of its A-list celebrities, Fan Bingbing, for tax offences, and these sent shockwaves through the nation.

You may have seen yesterday that a uniformed police officer in a Florida polling station was caught wearing a pro-Trump face mask. That breaks Miami Police rules - and he was accused of "visually intimidating voters" by a local Democrat activist.

Now his bosses have said the officer will be disciplined.

"Police officers are supposed to be impartial, so irrespective of who the person was, whatever sign it would have been, it would have been problematic and something that we cannot condone and would not accept,” Miami Mayor Francis Suarez said, external.

The president of the United States isn’t directly elected by American voters, but by members of what's called the electoral college. Check out the video above where we explain exactly how the system works.

Image source, AOC/ILHAN/INSTAGRAM

Early voting began on Tuesday in the US's most segregated city. Photos showed long queues in Milwaukee - in 2016, low turnout among African-Americans there helped Donald Trump win the state by a slim majority.

And, how do you hold a campaign rally during a pandemic? Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez found a way of gathering 700,000 people in one place without risk of exposure to Covid-19.

Read more in the latest edition of our newest feature, The Countdown

Image source, Getty Images

President Trump abruptly walked out of a taped interview with broadcaster CBS on Tuesday night at the White House.

He has since lashed out at correspondent Lesley Stahl, who was hosting the interview for CBS programme 60 minutes.

He also accused the host of not wearing a face mask at the White House, tweeting, "Lesley Stahl of 60 Minutes not wearing a mask in the White House after her interview with me. Much more to come."

A video of the journalist without a face covering accompanied the tweet.

CBS News said Stahl wore a mask when she entered the White House , externaland greeted the president. She then removed it and socially distanced herself for the interview. The clip Trump tweeted was filmed after the interview, CBS said.

Image source, Getty Images

We know Barack Obama is alarmed about Trump's presidency , externalbut apart from a headlining appearance at the Democratic National Convention, we haven't seen much of the box office Democrat on the campaign trail.

However in the last two weeks before the election he will be more visible. Today Obama makes the first of a number of campaign stops, starting in Philadelphia, Pennslyvania. It's a battleground state that could swing the outcome of the election (it's also Joe Biden's home state).

Obama will try to rally support for Biden, particularly from black and Latino voters. At the drive-in rally in a sports centre the ex-president will draw on his close relationship with his former vice-president in his appeal to voters, according to CBS news in Philadelphia., external

Ritu Prasad
BBC News, Florida

We’ve been asking our readers for their most pressing questions about the US election. Now it’s our turn to respond.

Click here if you want to know more about this project or send in a question of your own.

Joseph D, 18, from Reading, UK, asks: What would the future of Nato look like under Trump or Biden as president?

The two presidential candidates have a fundamentally different vision when it comes to the 71-year-old military alliance.

President Donald Trump is no fan of Nato: He called it "obsolete" and repeatedly disparaged it as a drain on the US national budget that mainly benefits Europe.

In 2018, he suggested the US might pull out, and questioned Nato's core principle of collective defense, asking why US troops should go to war to protect a small country like Montenegro.

Joe Biden, meanwhile, has drawn a sharp contrast with Trump on the matter. He's pledged to restore strained US relationships with allies, especially in Nato.

The Democratic nominee has also often stressed that the nation must "take immediate steps to renew US democracy and alliances" and "salvage" the country’s reputation.

Read our state department correspondent's analysis on the two candidates' foreign policy plans here.

We're speaking to ordinary voters every day -- and here's a flavour of some of the views Trump and Biden supporters have been giving us on our recent travels in Florida and Georgia.

• Joe Biden is hunkering down, prepping for the final presidential debate on Thursday in Nashville. But while he is making few public appearances this week, former president Barack Obama will campaign for Biden at a drive-in rally in Philadelphia
• Donald Trump, meanwhile, is attending a rally in Gastonia, North Carolina this evening. After that he will answer questions in a town hall event at the White House for broadcaster Sinclair Broadcast Group

Image source, Getty Images

One of the big stories overnight was a report that President Donald Trump keeps a bank account in China and has been pursuing business interests in the country for years - that's from the New York Times. It's a stark contrast to Trump’s negative rhetoric about China - he has repeatedly said China poses a threat to the US - and his administration’s trade war with the country. Read more about the story here.

The news so far:

• Talks are ongoing in Congress about a financial relief package to deal with the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic. Each side has said they want a deal passed before the 3 November election, but experts say this is unlikely.
• On Tuesday night, Trump cut short a TV interview with broadcaster CBS. He later accused the 60 Minutes interviewer Lesley Stahl, of not wearing a mask in the White House
• And on Tuesday Trump’s wife, Melania, chose not to accompany the president on the campaign trial due to a lingering Covid-19 cough. Both Melania and her husband contracted coronavirus last month

Hello and welcome to our live coverage of the US election 2020 - it is now 13 days until millions of Americans decide if Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Joe Biden will be the next US president.

We’ll be bringing you the latest news and analysis from the campaign trail throughout Wednesday, as well as the views of Americans on the core issues in the presidential race.