Summary

  • The world's largest ever report into climate change is published, setting out the stark reality of the state of the planet

  • The study, by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, says it is "unequivocal" that human activity is responsible for global warming

  • Some changes, like sea-level rises, are irreversible, the study finds

  • But there is new hope that deep cuts in emissions of greenhouse gases could stabilise rising temperatures

  • It is the most up-to-date assessment of how global warming will change the world in the coming decades, and looked at more than 14,000 scientific papers

  • Environmental experts have said it is a "massive wake-up call" to governments to cut emissions

  • In recent years, the world has seen record-breaking temperatures, raging wildfires and devastating flooding

  1. What are wildfires?published at 08:25 British Summer Time 9 August 2021

    Wildfire on the island of Evia, GreeceImage source, Reuters

    Wildfires are unplanned blazes that burn in natural areas, such as grasslands or forests.

    They can start at any time and in any location, but the risk of them increases when it’s extremely hot and dry. Climate change increases the likelihood of this hot, dry weather.

    According to the World Health Organization, about 2,400 people died worldwide from suffocation, injuries and burns related to wildfires between 1998 and 2017.

    And at the same time, wildfires make climate conditions worse, by releasing large amounts of carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide into the atmosphere.

  2. 'Massive wake-up call': What experts saypublished at 08:15 British Summer Time 9 August 2021

    We've talked to several experts ahead of the report for their views about what to expect and the state of our planet.

    Here's Richard Black, from non-profit advisory group the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit:

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    Coming just before COP26, this report is a massive wake-up call to all those governments that have not yet put forward realistic plans to cut emissions over the next decade.

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    It will show that choices made now have a big effect on our future - leading to a runaway world of wild weather impacts and incalculable risks at one end, and at the other a future where climate change is constrained within manageable bounds.

    Here's Dr Heleen de Coninck, from Eindhoven University of Technology in the Netherlands, who is a co-ordinating lead author for the IPCC Working Group III:

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    We've seen over a couple of months, and years actually, how climate change is unfolding; it's really staring us in the face.

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    It's really showing what the impacts will be, and this is just the start. So I think what this report will add is a big update of the state of the science, what temperature increase are we looking at - and what are the physical impacts of that?

    A lead author of the report, Prof Ed Hawkins, told us:

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    Climate change is here and now. We're already seeing the effects of our warming planet on changes in extreme weather and rising sea levels and coral reef bleaching and dying around the world.

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    These effects are very, very visible from photographs of glaciers melting from the Arctic Sea ice retreating, the signals are all around us and this report will set out the latest evidence in great detail.

  3. And how much rainfall is 'extreme'?published at 08:05 British Summer Time 9 August 2021

    Flooding in Zhengzhou, Henan Province, July 2021Image source, EPA

    Again, how much rain is considered an extreme amount depends on how much rain a particular area normally sees.

    However, it's either a heavy amount of rain in a very short period of time, or a prolonged period of rain.

    Extreme rainfall can lead to flooding - including flash floods, which are caused by a short burst of heavy rain.

    And while many factors contribute to flooding, a warming atmosphere caused by climate change makes extreme rainfall more likely, because a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapour that then rains out.

  4. When does hot weather become 'extreme'?published at 08:00 British Summer Time 9 August 2021

    La Tuna canyon fire in 2017Image source, Getty Images

    The exact temperature at which heat is considered "extreme" depends on where you are in the world.

    In the US, for example, it is a period of at least two to three days where the temperature is above 32C (90F).

    In the UK, the exact heatwave threshold depends on the county you're in, but it's usually between 25C and 28C. Extreme heat is a prolonged period of at least three days of this temperature or higher.

    Because of human-induced climate change, heatwaves are becoming more severe and more likely to happen.

  5. Climate change and extreme weatherpublished at 07:55 British Summer Time 9 August 2021

    A man trapped on a car in flooding in ZhengzhouImage source, Reuters
    Image caption,

    Hundreds of people were killed in recent flooding in Zhengzhou, China

    The link between climate change and extreme weather is so complex that there's a whole branch of scientific study dedicated to it - Attribution Science.

    Scientists have found strong evidence that human-induced global warming is making events like wildfires and heatwaves more likely and more extreme, mainly because climate change increases the risk of hot, dry weather. For the same reason, droughts are becoming more severe too.

    A warming atmosphere caused by climate change makes extreme rainfall more likely as well, which in turn contributes to flooding.

    And while the impact of climate change on the frequency of hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons is still unclear, we know that increased sea surface temperatures warm the air above, making more energy available to drive storms, making them likely to be more intense with more extreme rainfall.

  6. What did the last report say? And when?published at 07:40 British Summer Time 9 August 2021

    The last time the IPCC released one of these reports was eight years ago, in 2013. That was the Fifth Assessment Report.

    That report found that, with 95% certainty, humans have been the dominant cause of global warming since the 1950s.

    It looked at the combined average land and ocean surface data between 1880 and 2012, and found the temperature had risen by 0.85C.

    It also said the period from 1983 to 2012 in the Northern Hemisphere appeared to be the warmest 30-year period of the last 1,400 years.

  7. Analysis

    Analysis: World will continue to get hotterpublished at 07:30 British Summer Time 9 August 2021

    Roger Harrabin
    BBC environment analyst

    The intergovernmental panel brings together representatives of world governments who appraise research by scientists. That means all governments buy into the findings.

    The last panel was in 2013 and researchers say much has firmed up since then. Previously, for instance, they were reluctant to ascribe extreme events such as heatwaves and torrential rain to being at least partly down to climate change.

    Now in the case of the heatdome in the US in June, they're confident to say it would have been almost impossible without climate change.

    They say the world will continue to get hotter.

    It will also - especially in northern Europe - get wetter, though droughts will increase too as weather patterns shifts.

    The panel studied papers showing that sea level would continue to rise for hundreds or possibly thousands of years because of heat already trapped in the ocean deep.

    Research does confirm though, that if politicians can stick to holding global temperature increase down to 1.5C, on pre-industrial times, the worst catastrophes can still be avoided.

  8. What we can expect from the reportpublished at 07:18 British Summer Time 9 August 2021

    The report to be published will be the most up-to-date assessment of how global warming will change the world in the coming decades:

    • It is likely to detail significant changes to the world's oceans, ice caps and land in the coming decades
    • As well as updates on temperature projections, there is also likely to be a strong focus on the question of humanity's role in creating the climate crisis
    • It should include warnings of how soon global temperatures could rise 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. Experts say the impacts of climate change are far more severe when the increase is greater than 1.5C
    • As the world has experienced a series of devastating fires and floods in recent months that have been linked to climate change, the report will also include a new chapter linking extreme weather events to rising temperatures
  9. What is the Sixth Assessment Report?published at 07:08 British Summer Time 9 August 2021

    Person holding sign saying "the climate needs you"Image source, Reuters

    The IPCC regularly releases reports on climate change.

    It doesn't actually conduct its own scientific research, but instead looks at different studies that have been published. The idea is that it informs our understanding of climate change, and how it's impacting our world.

    This is the sixth such report in a series that started in 1992. The part of the report that's being released today was put together by the IPCC's Working Group I, which has been looking at the physical science behind climate change.

    After this, other parts of the report - which will be released next year - are going to look at the different impacts of climate change, and how we can mitigate its effects.

  10. What is the IPCC?published at 07:04 British Summer Time 9 August 2021

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - or IPCC - is an international body set up to assess the science around climate change.

    It was established in 1988 by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to put together regular reports with the latest information on climate change.

    It regularly assesses the scientific basis of our understanding of climate change, as well as the impacts of it and different ways countries can mitigate its effects.

    These reports are aimed at governments, who can then use them to come up with climate-related policies - though they don't tell policymakers what actions to take.

    They also form the basis of negotiations at the UN's climate conference, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

  11. Welcome to our live coveragepublished at 07:02 British Summer Time 9 August 2021

    Children holding climate placardsImage source, Reuters

    Good morning if you're joining us in the UK, and welcome to our live coverage of a major UN report on climate change.

    The study is by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a UN group that looked at more than 14,000 scientific papers.

    It will be the most up-to-date assessment of how global warming will change the world in the coming decades.

    The section to be published today at 09:00 BST (08:00 GMT) will look at the latest science underpinning climate change.

    We'll bring you details of the report, as well as analysis from our team of experts and correspondents.