Image source, Reuters

The expected lockdown comes as a number of European countries impose new measures to tackle a resurgence of the virus.

• Austria announced today it will enforce a curfew and shutdown of services. Shops, schools and kindergartens will remain open but universities and high schools will move to distance learning.A curfew between 20:00 and 06:00 will come into force and no meetings will be allowed between people from more than two households
• France imposed a nationwide lockdown on Thursday. People have been ordered to stay at home except for essential work or medical reasons. President Emmanuel Macron said the country risked being “overwhelmed by a second wave that no doubt will be harder than the first”

• Belgium has ordered non-essential shops and businesses offering personal services such has hair salons to close until the middle of December. Any gatherings in public places must be limited to a maximum of four people. Supermarkets can only sell essential goods and households are allowed just one visitor. Autumn school holidays have been extended until 15 November
• Germany has also imposed new measures but they are not as strict as other neighbouring countries. The measures which come into force on Monday include the closure of restaurants, bars, gyms and theatres
• Italy, which was at the epicentre of the first wave of the virus, has introduced new restrictions which will be in place for a month. All bars and restaurants across the country will have to close by 18:00 although they can provide takeaways later. Gyms, swimming pools, theatres and cinemas have to close but museums can remain open

Branwen Jeffreys
Education Editor

Image source, Reuters

Unions representing teachers and university lecturers are calling for schools to be closed and lectures to be moved online in the event of a a national lockdown in England.

Kevin Courtney, the joint general secretary of the National Education Union, which represents many classroom teachers, said it would be "self-defeating" to introduce a national lockdown while "ignoring the role of schools as a major contributor to the spread of the virus".

"Such a lockdown would impose pain on the whole community - but not be as effective as it could be if schools were included," he said.

"Ignoring the role of schools and colleges in the spread of the virus is likely to lead to the need for even longer lockdowns in future."

The union says the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics estimate that 1% of primary pupils and 2% of secondary pupils have the virus.

The university lecturers union, the University and College Union, said any lockdown should lead to all teaching moving online.

Its general secretary Jo Grady said: "The health and safety of the country is being put at risk because of this government’s insistence that universities must continue with in-person teaching."

She added it would be "incomprehensible" for this to be allowed to continue after the outbreaks on campuses this term, and that ministers "must tell universities to move all non-essential in-person teaching online as part of any national lockdown".

Hugh Pym
BBC News Health Editor

Image source, Getty Images

If you look back to the last nationwide lockdown in March, April and May, it did bring the death rate right down and it brought hospital admissions down. That was the main purpose of it, particularly to secure the NHS.

People will argue that it succeeded in those aims, but there was a lot of work cancelled by the NHS. A lot of people had illnesses and conditions which weren't treated, they missed operations and procedures.

The aim right now is to suppress the virus - to bring it down to levels where the test and trace system can work a lot better.

At the moment, it's struggling with keeping up with the case numbers and the rate at which they're growing.

The idea is to bring it down and then see if test and trace can do more after November, when the hope is that lockdown can be eased.

Until a vaccine comes along - and there have been mixed messages on that, but it seems clear no one in authority wants us to expect it before the early months of next year - the virus will always be here.

Adam Marshall, the director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, said a national lockdown in England would be a "devastating blow" for businesses across the UK.

Asked what help businesses should get from the government, he said the furlough scheme - which saw the government pay 80% of the wages of those who were unable to work - was "fair" both to employers and employees.

He also said businesses would need additional support around cash flow.

Nick Triggle
Health Correspondent

A month-long lockdown may suppress the virus, but what is less clear is whether the government will be in a better position to stop it rebounding once it lifts.

There have been calls to fix the test and trace service, but that is easier said than done.

Testing capacity is being increased. In the coming days the government is expected to announce its labs are able to process 500,000 tests a day. That should allow the system to speed up turnaround times.

But improving the tracing side of the service is likely to be much more difficult.

Councils in England are being encouraged to set up their own local contact tracing teams to support the under pressure national team.

About a third of areas have now launched their own services and there are some encouraging signs in what’s being achieved.

But questions are quite rightly being asked why this is only happening now as the second wave hits.

Significant levels of transmission are also being seen in care homes and hospitals, where one in six of the new daily admissions are suspected to be cases where patients have caught the virus in hospital.

Expect infection levels to come down quickly – and eventually that to translate to fewer hospital admissions and death.

But the true test of the lockdown lies elsewhere.

The Conservative MP and former minister Steve Baker says the PM has "very, very difficult choices to make".

He urged the public and MPs to "listen extremely carefully" to what Boris Johnson says this evening and over the coming days.

Speaking after a briefing with scientists in Downing Street this afternoon, he described the meeting as an "opportunity to robustly scrutinise the arguments, the data, the forecasts of where we're going".

But he told journalists he does not know what Johnson will say tonight.

Asked whether there would be a lockdown, Mr Baker said: "The truth is there's more nuance. Like you, I need to look at what the PM says."

He added: "In the end, we're going to come out of this with a smile on our faces and it's going to be ok.

"But in the next few days, weeks and months it's going to be very tricky."

Nick Eardley
Political correspondent

Sources have told the BBC that non-essential shops and hospitality venues will be forced to close, but takeaways will be allowed.

It's also expected people will be told they can only meet one person from outside their household outdoors.

Documents seen by the BBC suggest the UK is on course for a much higher death toll than during the first wave unless further restrictions are introduced.

One model suggests we could reach more than 4,000 deaths a day. That's based on no policies being brought in to slow the spread of the virus, though - most of the models peak at about 2,000 a day.

All of them predict that hospitalisations are likely to peak in mid-December, with deaths rising until at least late December before falling from early January.

And a separate document circulating in government - based on NHS England modelling from 28 October - warns that the NHS would be unable to accept any more patients by Christmas, even if the Nightingale hospitals are used and non-urgent procedures cancelled.

It warns that south-west England and the Midlands will be the first to run out of capacity, potentially within a fortnight.

More than one million confirmed cases of coronavirus have been recorded in the UK since the start of the pandemic - a further 21,915 cases were reported today.

However, it's thought many more people have had the virus as the testing programme does not capture all cases.

The UK is the ninth country to surpass the million mark.

The US has the most cases with more than nine million. India has the second highest number of cases followed by Brazil, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

Nick Eardley
Political correspondent

The prime minister’s press conference is going to be significant.

Speaking to sources, I’m expecting he will announce a version of lockdown which will see non-essential shops and hospitality told to close again.

The measures are due to come into force on Thursday and will last until 2 December.

I’m also told people will be advised not to travel outside their area.

It will apply across England.

A further 326 Covid-related deaths have been announced in the UK.

It brings the official UK death toll to 46,555, according to government figures., external

Another 21,915 cases have also been recorded, bringing the total number of cases since the pandemic began to 1,011,660.

The guidance announced in today’s press conference is for England only.

Elsewhere in the UK, Wales remains under a 17-day “firebreak” lockdown until 9 November.

Wales’ First Minister Mark Drakeford said the firebreak there will end as planned and that his cabinet will meet on Sunday to “discuss any potential border issues for Wales in light of any announcement by Number 10”.

Scotland’s new tiered system of restrictions will come into force at 06:00 GMT on Monday. First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has issued new advice that people should not travel to or from England, except for essential purposes.

In Northern Ireland, pubs and restaurants were closed for four weeks on 16 October, with the exception of takeaways and deliveries. Schools were closed for two weeks.

James Gallagher
Health and science correspondent, BBC News

In March, the government was trying to slow rather than stop the virus. Then modelling said huge numbers of people would die and we ended up in lockdown.

A key difference this time is the government's science advisers called for a circuit-breaker six weeks ago.

The price of delay is cases are higher and we have missed the boat for doing it at the same time as school holidays for extra impact. It means we may have to lockdown for longer.

The spring lockdown did bring cases down. A lockdown now would be expected to do the same.

There is an ambition to keep schools open, but there are growing doubts about secondaries where Covid cases are "increasing steeply", external.

Deaths will continue to rise throughout a suggested November lockdown, but the hope is driving levels of the virus low enough would allow the struggling NHS Test and Trace programme to become effective again.

The driving motivation here is saving lives and not overwhelming the NHS. There is no guarantee it will deliver a normal Christmas, too.

The PM will provide more details in about an hour but government sources say that as part of the shutdown, non-essential retail and hospitality will be forced to close, but schools and universities will stay open.

We know that Boris Johnson will be giving a news conference at 17:00 GMT. He'll be fresh from a cabinet meeting this afternoon, after the government discussed the plans forthe month-long lockdown across England.

He'll be accompanied by some familiar faces - England's chief medical officer Chris Whitty and the government's chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance.

We'll be bringing you the latest updates here, or you can head over to BBC One for live coverage from 16:30 GMT, as soon as the rugby finishes.

Boris Johnson is set to announce lockdown measures lasting a month in England, sources have told the BBC.

Laura Kuenssberg
Political editor

Not so long ago, the prime minister swore that it was not inevitable.

But day after day as the numbers of infections have risen, quibbles with local areas on their status continued, the moment has come closer, and now it seems almost sure to return.

Official government documents, seen by the BBC, make the case clear.

The papers suggest that the UK is on course for a significantly higher death toll from coronavirus than during the first wave of the pandemic, unless ministers implement further restrictions.

One of the documents, circulated among members of the government's Sage committee in recent days and discussed by Boris Johnson and Chancellor Rishi Sunak on Friday, says that "all models suggest a significantly higher peak than those estimated at any point in the current Reasonable Worst Case Scenario".

Read more from Laura here