Some evidence of falling cases but future still uncertainpublished at 13:00 British Summer Time 13 August 2021

13:00 BST 13 August 2021

James Gallagher
Health and science correspondent, BBC News

What is clear from the Covid statistics is we have not reached catastrophic levels of the virus after relaxing restrictions, such as in England on 19 July.

But there is fuzziness around the data that makes it challenging to give precise predictions of the coming months.

Covid data can be like staring at the sea. You can watch the movement of the waves, but it takes time to know whether the tide is coming in or out.

So the ONS – which tests a random group of people whether they have symptoms or not – has found some evidence of falling cases, but says it’s not clear if we’re past the peak.

The government’s official number of confirmed Covid cases suggests that – after a dramatic fall – the numbers are creeping up again.

And there is still uncertainty about what will happen in the autumn when schools go back and the weather makes it easier for the virus to spread.

But whatever happens, we are in a better place now that three-quarters of adults are fully vaccinated than we have ever been in this pandemic.

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During the pandemic an international movement opposed to Covid-19 vaccines and restrictions has grown on social media, often muddled with conspiracy theories and dangerous falsehoods.

Now some committed activists are pursuing a new direction - organising online dating, house shares and possibly even blood banks just for the unvaccinated.

"I mean, I'm not at that stage yet. I quite like the coffee shop and having my flat white," Michele explains, her blonde hair dancing in the blustery sea breeze as we sit by the beach in Brighton.

"But if the time comes, I'll give it all up."

She's not talking about quitting caffeine or giving up on chocolate. Michele is contemplating opting out of mainstream society altogether - because of her opposition to the Covid-19 vaccines.

You can read more from Michelle here.

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Russia has officially recorded its highest number of daily deaths since the start of the pandemic.

The number of daily deaths rose to 815 on Thursday, up from 808 the previous day. There were 22,277 new cases over the same 24 hours, up from 21,932.

The highest numbers of cases were recorded in the capital, Moscow (2,529), followed by St Petersburg (1,810), according to figures published by the Moscow-based coronavirus HQ.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, Russia has officially reported 168,864 deaths of people with coranavirus - but the sanctioned death toll is considerably lower than official statistics published elsewhere.

On 6 August, state statistics agency Rosstat released its updated mortality figures for the first six months of 2021, which included 153,500 excess deaths in that period alone.

Unofficial figures suggest 27.2% of the population in Russia have received at least one dose of vaccine, while 20% of the total population has been fully jabbed.

In Wales, around one in 220 people are estimated to have had Covid-19 in the week to 7 August, according to the ONS.

This is broadly unchanged from the previous week's figure of one in 230 and the ONS said the trend in the percentage of people testing positive was "uncertain".

In Northern Ireland, the latest estimate is around one in 55, unchanged on the previous week and the highest level since the week to 23 January.

For Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive has continued to decrease, with an estimated one in 190 having the virus in the week to 7 August - down from one in 120 in the previous week.

Around one in 75 people in private households in England had Covid last week, according to the latest estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The figure, for the week to 6 August, is unchanged on the previous week.

The data is based on swab tests of a random group of people in the community.

The ONS said that while the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus in England "continued to be high", estimates suggest "an overall decreasing trend over the past two weeks".

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It would be "naive" to set a date to remove all Covid-19 restrictions in Northern Ireland, the infrastructure minister says.

The Stormont Executive agreed to a number of changes to Covid-19 restrictions yesterday.

These include the removal of bubbles for school pupils from the start of term, the return of full in-person learning at further and higher education facilities, and changes to self-isolation requirements.

The cap of six people sitting at tables in pubs and restaurants is also being scrapped.

But it stopped short of changing rules on social distancing.

Nichola Mallon, the deputy leader of the SDLP, says the executive had agreed to follow a data-led approach in their decision-making around regulations.

"I will look at the data, I will make my decisions accordingly but I want to reassure people, of course I don't want restrictions in place any longer than necessary," she tells the BBC's Good Morning Ulster programme.

Her comments come after First Minister Paul Givan's claim that the "justification for regulations is diminishing".

Read the full story here.

The coronavirus pandemic has forced musicians to reassess how they deliver live music to their fans.

Dutch symphonic rock band Within Temptation were due to headline London's O2 arena in 2020 but Covid restrictions and social distancing limits have forced them to postpone on more than one occasion.

So the band turned to technology to perform The Aftermath – A Show In A Virtual Reality.

"While not being able to play live, this is the first thing that comes close," says band leader Sharon den Adel.

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Everyone aged 16 and over in the UK can now receive the Covid vaccine.

Until recently the UK has stopped short of vaccinating under-18s, except over-12s with underlying conditions, or those living with others at high risk.

But now those aged 16 and 17 are also being offered a first dose. It has not yet been decided whether or when they will be offered a second.

There are currently no plans to offer the jab to healthy 12 to 15-year-olds in the UK.

You can read more about the vaccine and how it's being rolled out here.

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Only 2.4% of fully vaccinated people who were pinged by the NHS app in England and Wales, but felt physically normal, went on to test positive for Covid, according to a recent major survey.

However, those in the same surveyed group who had one or more coronavirus symptoms were 11.7 times more likely to test positive.

It means overall, those "pinged" by the app are up to four times more likely to have Covid-19 than someone who is not - but more accuracy is required to avoid people who are not infected being asked to self isolate unnecessarily.

Professor Tim Spector, lead scientist of the Zoe Covid Study app, which surveyed more than 750,000 contributors, urged the government to to expand the Covid symptom list "to help people understand all the symptoms of Covid-19".

"While I welcome efforts to address the 'pingdemic', cases are still very high and our research shows that whatever your vaccination status, if you have one of possible 20-plus Covid symptoms recognised by Zoe - not just the classic three - you should be cautious, self isolate and get a test."

It follows government confirmation that fully vaccinated people in England who are pinged will no longer need to self isolate from Monday 16 August.

Image source, CHERYL MCCLUSKEY

Heavy metal festival Bloodstock returns to the Derbyshire village of Walton-on-Trent this weekend, after last year's event was moved online due to the pandemic.

Bloodstock regulars, Cheryl McCluskey and fiancé Mathew Wilson, missed the event so much last year they replicated the festival in their own garden.

Now they are looking forward to celebrating the festival's 20th birthday in situ - and in style, with headliners Devin Townsend, Kreator and Judas Priest.

"I think the whole rock community realises how privileged they are to have a festival this year," says Mathew.

He adds that festival-goers are taking the Covid security measures "very seriously".

"Even if they've had both jabs, people are taking a lateral flow test anyway," says Cheryl.

"It's definitely made me feel much better because people are taking that responsibility of not passing it on."

"We've been waiting for this for so long," says festival director Rachael Greenfield. "We're overwhelmed, excited and we're really feeling the euphoria of our festival-goers.

"To see them come flying through the gates was emotional and long overdue."

Read more from metal fans at this weekend's Bloodstock.

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Fewer people say they are social distancing in England, Scotland and Wales, official figures suggest.

The Office for National Statistics reports that, external 49% of adults say they always or often maintain social distancing - compared to 53% last week.

The figures are based on a survey of around 5,000 households, conducted between 4 and 8 August.

The proportion of adults saying they wear face coverings outside of the home has fallen from 92% to 90%.

More people are meeting up indoors with others who aren't in their household (up from 62% to 64%), but fewer people are meeting up outdoors (down from 65% to 60%).

The ONS figures suggest that a high proportion of adults feel measures to slow the spread of the virus are important, and that 97% of people feel positively about the vaccine.

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The partial closure of one of China's biggest cargo ports due to coronavirus has raised fresh concerns about the impact on global trade.

Services were shut on Wednesday at a terminal at Ningbo-Zhoushan port - the world's third busiest - after a worker was infected with the Delta variant.

Closing the terminal on Meishan island until further notice will cut the port's capacity for container cargo by about a quarter.

It comes as the cost of shipping from China and South East Asia to the East coast of the US has already hit a record high, according to the Freightos Baltic global container freight index.

And some UK businesses are already feeling the pressure of much higher shipping costs.

You can read the full story here.

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The first week of August saw 1.7 million active job ads in the UK, new research has found - with a spike in the three weeks since most Covid restrictions were lifted in England.

Job ads for photographers and broadcasting equipment operators saw the largest rise, up 19% on last week, according to the Recruitment & Employment Confederation (REC).

Demand for insurance underwriters is up 15.5%, while new roles for agricultural staff rose by nearly 10%.

Job ads for plasterers are also up by 8%, while adverts for decorators are up by 4.7%.

Kate Shoesmith, deputy chief executive of the REC says that employers are "desperate" to find "good staff to help them recover and grow in the coming months".

Read the full story here.

Across the US, local school board meetings are witnessing protests and showdowns.

With Covid cases on the rise again, American parents and officials are wrestling with how students can safely return to the classroom.

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The boss of Gatwick Airport says the airport will recover, despite multi-million pound losses in the past six months, but adds the government needs to "act now" to allow travel to resume "more freely".

While the airport has remained open, a collapse in passenger demand and government restrictions have led to pre-tax losses of £204m across the first half of the 2021.

In a statement, CEO Steve Wingate thanks Gatwick staff "for their hard work and fortitude throughout what has no doubt been the most challenging six months the airport has witnessed".

He adds: "In the UK we are all emerging to enjoy more freedoms due to our world class vaccination programme - however we are in danger of squandering the advantage.

"Our government needs to act now and remove unnecessary and costly PCR testing requirements for passengers, particularly for those double vaccinated.

"UK travel recovery should not be allowed to lag behind the US and Europe.

"Passengers need the travel rules simplified so they can choose to travel more freely and enjoy much needed breaks and reunions with family and friends."

Stephen Walker
BBC News NI Political Correspondent

If you missed yesterday's announcement in Northern Ireland, the Stormont Executive has agreed to a number of changes to Covid-19 rules, including the end of close contacts self-isolating if they are fully vaccinated.

Other changes have been agreed for schools and the hospitality sector.

Class bubbles will no longer be required from the start of term.

The rule-of-six - the number of people allowed to sit at tables together in pubs and restaurants - has also been scrapped.

However, the executive stopped short of changing rules on social distancing or face coverings.

You can read more about changing rules in NI here.

Image source, Getty Images

US drug regulators have given to go-ahead for immunocompromised Americans to get an additional Covid jab as a booster to help stave off infection and illness.

The order, issued by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), affects around 10 million people, including transplant recipients and cancer patients.

It's the first time US health officials have indicated that booster shots may be necessary to fight Covid.

It comes as evidence grows that antibody protection from vaccines may wear off over time, and as some people seek their third dose on the black market.

Israel and Chile have already given out booster shots to certain groups of people.

Countries planning a booster rollout include the UK, France, Germany, Sweden, the UAE, Indonesia, Thailand and South Korea.

But the World Health Organization has called for a moratorium on booster shots until at least the end of September to allow every country to vaccinate at least 10% of their population.

Read the full story here.

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Shetland's famous Up Helly Aa festival has been called off for the second year in a row.

The main Lerwick event draws visitors from around the world every January, as Shetland's Viking heritage is celebrated.

This year's event was axed as a result of the Covid pandemic.

And organisers say the "continued uncertainty" over guidelines for hosting events means they will postpone next year's festival until 2023.

The various Up Helly Aa festivals remember the Vikings who used to rule the Shetland islands 1,000 years ago.

Commenting on research showing a gulf hospitals' ability to contain Covid last year, Prof Calum Semple of the University of Liverpool, who led much of the work, says things are "much better now".

Asked on BBC Radio 4's Today programme whether action was taken quickly enough in the first wave, he says the "long answer is yes".

"But it's very hard to turn these things around quickly. You have to look at the root causes. First of all, testing was not ideal. There were challenges around PPE, and at times hospitals were simply overwhelmed, which meant that side rooms that were normally used for isolation - there just weren't enough of them," he adds.

"Now we've got vaccination, excellent testing and plentiful PPE."

Asked whether he thinks it should be mandatory for health care workers coming into to contact with patients to be vaccinated, he says: "Speaking purely in a personal capacity, I do passionately believe that people working in health and social care should be vaccinated as part of their contract of employment."

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During the first wave of coronavirus in the UK, more than one in 10 people in hospital with Covid actually caught the virus while they were there.

But analysis of 314 UK hospitals suggests there was a massive gulf between hospitals - ranging from just one in 100 cases caught in hospital to more than one in four.

Specialist residential hospitals had even bigger challenges with the virus spreading.

More than two-thirds of Covid cases in mental-health hospitals were caught there.

The researchers said the wide variation needed "urgent investigation".

Things are improving, though.

The average proportion of cases caught in hospital was 11% in the first wave but now stands at 2-5% despite the emergence of the more infectious Delta variant, first identified in India.

Read health and science correspondent James Gallagher's report on the research here.