We have a bit more now from the WHO's Dr David Nabarro, who says it's important not to make "premature" promises about ending restrictions.

This comes after suggestions the government will drop Plan B restrictions in England at the next review on 26 January.

"I'm a public health person... I would not be making promises some time in the future," he says, because once you make a promise "it's super hard then to change what you're going to do".

Speaking to BBC Breakfast, Nabarro says coronavirus is constantly evolving and it's hard to predict where we will be in the future.

"We can say where we hope we're going to go, we can say where we'd like to go, we can say what we think we need to do to get there - but making promises that we'll do something on a particular date, I think, is unwise," he says.

Nabarro says the current situation in the UK "gives us grounds for hope" but urges caution.

Dharshini David
Business presenter

Image source, PA Media

The latest jobs figures from the Office for National Statistics show pay increases failed to match the accelerating cost of living for the first time in over a year in November.

However, with the jobs market heating up, economists believe that may be short-lived.

The latest numbers suggest that not only have the vast majority of livelihoods survived the end of the furlough scheme, but - with vacancies at a record high of 1.24 million - many employers are grappling with a shortage of skilled workers.

That's been heightened by the departure of more than 400,000 people from the labour market since the pandemic started.

Those factors are likely to give workers the upper hand when it comes to seeking - and getting - bigger pay rises this year.

You can read more here.

A new way to calculate 'expected' deathspublished at 10:07 Greenwich Mean Time 18 January 2022

10:07 GMT 18 January 2022

Robert Cuffe
BBC head of statistics

Starting today, the UK's statistical bodies will begin calculating "expected" death levels in a new way.

It will likely understate the effect of the pandemic in January and February but will, over the course of the year, do a better job of reflecting the UK’s growing and aging population.

We compare the number of deaths we see each week to expected levels in order to work out how many unexpected or "excess" deaths we're seeing.

It's a way of counting the death toll of the pandemic that doesn't focus narrowly on people who were diagnosed with Covid. It includes all the victims by using this statistical definition of what's expected.

Normally we use the average of the last five years: what happened in a population of roughly the same size, age, lifestyle and access to medicines.

Nobody expects 2022 to look anything like the last two years. So this year, "expected" deaths will be the average of the years 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2021: swapping out 2015 (with its terrible flu winter) for 2021 (an even worse coronavirus winter).

Including 2021, which saw huge numbers of coronavirus deaths in January and February, will mean that the expected death figures could be too high this month.

Keeping in 2015 would mean using out-of-date expectations: the number of over 70s in the UK has grown by roughly 8% since then - so there are no easy answers to this puzzle.

Image source, Getty Images

Supermarket Morrisons says it has axed sick pay for unvaccinated workers who have to isolate after being exposed to Covid.

It follows similar moves from retailers including Ikea, Next and Ocado as staff absences rise.

Unjabbed Morrisons staff who have to isolate but test negative now get statutory sick pay of £96.35 a week.

Covid-positive staff get full sick pay regardless of vaccination status. The firm pays staff at least £10 per hour.

Under Morrisons' policy, if NHS Test and Trace tells an unvaccinated worker that they have been exposed to Covid-19, they will only get statutory sick pay - the legal minimum - when they isolate.

However, any Morrisons worker who tests positive is paid full sick pay while they isolate, regardless of vaccination status.

You can read more here.

As we've been reporting, Justice Secretary Dominic Raab has been on several outlets this morning, defending Boris Johnson's account of what he knew about parties in No 10.

In an interview with Times Radio he was very clear about his views on Dominic Cummings' allegations. (As a reminder, Cummings claims the PM knew of concerns about one event held during the first Covid lockdown.)

"The suggestion that he lied is nonsense," Raab said of the PM. "He's made it very clear to the House of Commons... that he thought it was a work event."

Read more about the latest claims and counter-claims here.

We've got a bit more detail now from Dr David Nabarro, the the World Health Organization's special envoy on Covid-19.

Asked about the change in UK Covid rules, meaning asymptomatic people no longer need to take a PCR test following a positive lateral flow result, he says it will be "difficult" to read too much into current case numbers as more people self-test and some fail to register their results with the government.

"We just need to be careful with the numbers and, most importantly, it's looking to see what's happening in hospitals and whether or not death rates are starting to climb again."

He says people must treat the virus seriously, wearing masks in crowded places, distancing and isolating with Covid symptoms.

"Please continue treating the virus with respect whoever you are - whether you're in a position of authority or whether you do what other people ask you to do," he says.

"Please just treat it carefully, because I don't think this is a mild virus and I don't think anybody should treat it lightly right now."

Many of the front pages concentrate on Dominic Cummings' latest claims about Downing Street parties.

The Metro's headline repeats the assertion of Boris Johnson's former chief adviser that he's willing to swear under oath that the PM lied to the House of Commons.

The Mirror focusses on his claim that the PM approved a party in the Number 10 garden in May 2020.

No 10 has issued a blanket rebuttal to these comments, saying Mr Cummings' allegation are "untrue".

The Mail's leader attempts to draw a line under the so-called Partygate scandal. It says "enough is enough", claiming the ongoing coverage is causing "a thumping hangover - without having had the fun of going to the parties".

Meanwhile, the Express is looking at the issue of energy costs. It urges the PM to accelerate efforts to resolve the issue, saying "the clock is ticking".

The Financial Times reports that ministers are considering paying energy suppliers to avoid wholesale price rises being passed on to customers.

Image source, Getty Images

Hospitality bosses and opposition politicians are urging the Scottish government to ease Covid rules more quickly, as Nicola Sturgeon prepares to update MSPs this afternoon.

Some rules have already been eased - attendance limits at big outdoor events lifted on Monday.

But the first minister has said she hopes to reduce curbs on indoor events and venues from 24 January.

Ms Sturgeon's cabinet will meet on Tuesday morning before she tells MSPs what's happening later.

On Monday, she said she was "cautiously optimistic that we're turning the corner" of the Omicron wave of the virus, while warning there is still "acute" pressure on health services.

You can read more here.

Adam Fleming
Chief political correspondent

This morning we heard from Justice Secretary Dominic Raab and last night before bed I was reading Dominic Cummings's latest blog, external.

Cummings' claims that he discussed with the PM the fact that this invitation sent by Johnson's principal private secretary, Martin Reynolds could be problematic.

And he, Cummings, is pretty sure the private secretary discussed it with the prime minister.

The allegation from Cummings, the former prime ministerial adviser-turned arch-enemy - is that therefore the prime minister misled parliament when he has talked about 20 May 2020 drinks event.

Downing Street has said it is not true and the PM was not aware or warned of the party.

In his morning media rounds, Raab repeated No 10's denials and declined to pre-empt Sue Gray's independent inquiry into Downing Street events during Covid restrictions.

He went on to say that in theory if a minister had lied that would a breach of the Ministerial Code and a resigning offence.

Justice Secretary Dominic Raab has just been speaking to BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

Asked if Dominic Cummings - the PM's ex-top aide - is a credible witness over his claims that Boris Johnson knew about the May 2020 No 10 garden party, Raab insists that, along with other claims, is a matter for Sue Gray.

She's the top civil servant carrying out an inquiry into gatherings on government premises during Covid restrictions.

He adds that the important thing to note is No 10's "categorical assertion" that the suggestion the PM was warned about the drinks party is not true - and that Johnson himself had set out what had happened.

Raab declines to "pre-empt, prejudge or get in the way" of Ms Gray's inquiry - which is expected to report back shortly.

Asked what typically happens if a prime minister lies to parliament, Raab says if it is lying and it is not corrected, then normally, under the Ministerial Code, it would be a resigning matter.

He declines to be drawn in on applying it to the current claims surrounding the PM, reiterating his comment that he doesn't want to pre-empt Ms Gray's inquiry.

Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab has said former top aide Dominic Cummings' claim that the PM was warned about a drinks party held at Downing Street during lockdown was not true.

When questioned on Boris Johnson's stability as leader, Raab said he was confident the PM would "carry on for many years and continue to next election".

The Justice Secretary Dominic Raab's been defending the PM on BBC Breakfast, after Dominic Cummings claimed Boris Johnson was warned about No 10 holding a lockdown drinks party.

Raab stands by the PM's account, saying Boris Johnson has been "very clear" that he believed the event on 20 May 2020 was a "work event", and that he was acting in "good faith" and in accordance with the rules.

Cummings has claimed the PM knew the event was a "drinks party" and it showed the PM "lied to Parliament". But Raab says that Boris Johnson has been clear what is being said by Cummings is "not true".

He says both accounts – from Cummings and the PM – "cannot be reconciled".

Raab agrees in principle that if a minister lies to Parliament then they should resign, but he says he will not speculate on "hypothetical" questions, and it's important that we wait for report into alleged parties by civil servant Sue Gray.

He says he's "confident" (the PM) will carry on for many years and into the next election.

Image source, Reuters

Dr David Nabarro, the World Health Organization's special envoy on Coivd-19, says the Covid situation in the UK "gives us grounds for hope" but urged caution.

Speaking to BBC Breakfast, he says he is "very pleased" to see how the UK's Covid situation is doing.

After a sharp increase in infections in December driven by the Omicron variant, daily cases are now falling.

Dr Nabarro says the aim is for a situation where "the virus is present, but life is organised, so that it is not disrupted".

But he warns the virus continues to evolve in unpredictable ways, so people should refrain from suggesting the situation is "rosier than it really is".

He says while he can see "light at the end of the tunnel", he anticipates a bumpy journey ahead for the world this year.

UK job vacancies soared to a record high of 1.24 million between October and December, according to new data.

The figures are the first to exclude the impact of the government's furlough scheme, which ended on 30 September.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) says job vacancies were 462,000 higher compared to the three months before the pandemic.

Regular pay, excluding bonuses, grew at an annual rate of 3.8% between September and November, the ONS adds.

Total pay, which includes bonuses, grew by 4.2%.

Read more here.

Image source, EPA

Boris Johnson was warned about the 20 May 2020 drinks party in the No 10 garden during lockdown, the prime minister's ex-top aide says.

Dominic Cummings - who has been strongly critical of Mr Johnson since he left No 10 - says the prime minister "waved aside" concerns about the gathering.

The PM has admitted he attended the event, but said he thought it was work-related.

No 10 said it was "untrue" to say Johnson was "warned about the event".

A Downing Street spokesman added: "As he said earlier this week, he believed implicitly that this was a work event. He has apologised to the House and is committed to making a further statement once the investigation concludes."

Last week, Johnson told MPs he went to the gathering in the Downing Street garden and stayed at the drinks for 25 minutes to thank staff for their hard work.

However, Mr Cummings, who worked in No 10 at the time of the party, has insisted Johnson "knew he was at a drinks party 'cos he was told it was a drinks party and it was actually a drinks party".

Writing in his blog,, external Mr Cummings added further detail about his account of the discussions leading up to the party on 20 May and said it showed "the PM lied to Parliament about parties".

Read more here.

Good morning and welcome to our live coverage of the coronavirus pandemic.

Here’s a look at our top headlines this morning:

• Boris Johnson was warned about the 20 May 2020 drinks party in the No 10 garden during lockdown, according to the prime minister's ex-top aide. Dominic Cummings - critical of Johnson since he left his role - claims the PM "waved aside" concerns about the event. Downing Street denies the story
• Supermarket Morrisons confirms it is cutting sick pay for unvaccinated staff who have to isolate after being exposed to Covid, following similar moves by Ikea, Next and Ocado. Unjabbed Morrisons workers who have to isolate but test negative get statutory sick pay of £96.35 a week, while Covid-positive staff get full sick pay regardless of vaccination status
• Hospitality bosses and opposition politicians are urging the Scottish government to ease Covid rules more quickly, as Nicola Sturgeon prepares to update MSPs on the latest plans later. Some rules have already begun to change, with the limit on crowds at large outdoor events lifted on Monday. The first minister hopes to reduce curbs on indoor events and venues from 24 January.