Summary

  • Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg says the alliance has not seen any de-escalation of Russian military build-up on Ukraine's borders

  • Following a meeting of Nato defence ministers in Brussels, he says the security threat from Russia represents a "new normal" for Europe

  • "This is the biggest concentration in forces in Europe since the Cold War," he says

  • It comes after Russia said it was pulling back more troops - this time from the Crimean peninsula

  • A series of cyber attacks on Tuesday knocked out the websites of Ukraine's defence ministry and two banks

  • Ukraine has been marking a day of unity after earlier US reports suggested Russia could attack today

  1. Thanks for joining uspublished at 17:36 Greenwich Mean Time 16 February 2022

    That's all from today's live page team - thanks for following our coverage.

    The writers were Sam Cabral, Doug Faulkner, Victoria Lindrea, Jennifer Meierhans, Alice Cuddy and David Molloy. The editor was Becky Morton.

  2. What has happened today?published at 17:35 Greenwich Mean Time 16 February 2022

    Media caption,

    Watch: We don't see any Russian troop withdrawal, President Zelensky says

    We'll be pausing our live coverage shortly but before we finish, here's a quick recap of the major developments today:

    • Russia says it is pulling back more troops from the Ukrainian border, including from Crimea, after military exercises
    • But Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky told the BBC: "We don't see any troop withdrawal yet... for now it's just statements"
    • Nato say they see no de-escalation on the ground, with secretary general Jens Stoltenberg saying the security threat from Russia represents a "new normal" for Europe
    • Stoltenberg says it's not too late for a diplomatic solution, urging Russia to sit down and talk
    • He says Nato will embark on a defensive strategy, and it is considering establishing more battlegroups in central and south-east Europe
    • Ukraine has marked a "day of unity" as its people come together in the face of a possible invasion
    • Meanwhile, Moscow has denied any involvement in a major cyber-attack which hit Ukraine's defence ministry and two Ukrainian banks on Tuesday
  3. Analysis

    Even without invasion, this crisis could cast a long shadowpublished at 17:33 Greenwich Mean Time 16 February 2022

    Jonathan Beale
    BBC defence correspondent

    This was a bleak forecast for the future from Nato's secretary general.

    Jens Stoltenberg described it as the most serious security crisis in Europe since the end of the Cold War. And he made clear that the threat hasn't gone away.

    Stoltenberg said he'd seen no evidence that Russia had withdrawn forces from the border with Ukraine and warned that Russia had maintained a massive military force which was ready to attack.

    Even if President Putin doesn't give that order, there are still signs this crises will cast a much longer shadow.

    Stoltenberg said Russia's military build-up showed Moscow is prepared to contest European security with the use of force.

    "I regret to say it's the new normal," he said. That "new normal" could also mean Nato increasing its military posture.

    Stoltenberg has tasked Nato military planners to look at setting up new battlegroups on the alliance's Eastern flank - in Romania and the Black Sea region.

    No final decision has yet been taken and Nato insists reinforcements would only be sent to act as a deterrent.

    Nato is still calling on Russia to engage in dialogue to reduce tensions. But if diplomacy doesn't work the danger is both sides will end up with their armies doing the talking.

  4. Spat between UK and Russia on Chinese social mediapublished at 17:27 Greenwich Mean Time 16 February 2022

    Kerry Allen
    BBC Monitoring, Chinese Media Analyst

    Chinese social media users are gripped by an unusual spat between the UK and Russia, after a post was made on the UK Prime Minister’s official Sina Weibo account - China’s answer to Twitter.

    The official Downing Street account, which has more than one million followers, sent a message, in Chinese, to Russia's Vladimir Putin stating the Russian government "should avoid doing what would be a disastrous mistake for the country".

    President Putin does not have an account on the platform. However, the Russian Embassy in China has responded to the post, calling it "another example of the West’s 'information warfare' against Russia".

    It added that the No 10 post "was designed to fuel hysteria that it has manipulated around the so-called ‘imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine'".

    screenshot - WeiboImage source, Weibo
    Image caption,

    It is rare for foreign leaders to have official accounts on Weibo

    It is rare for foreign leaders or domestic officials to have accounts on Weibo. China’s media environment is heavily state-controlled, meaning platforms such as Weibo are generally not used for political statements.

    The typical response to the post from users accuses the UK, like the US, of trying to stoke friction between Russia and the Ukraine.

    China is one of Russia’s closest allies; media in China have sought to play down the suggestion of an imminent war. Instead, outlets have consistently claimed the US and British media have sought to inflame the situation to serve their respective government interests.

  5. A mix of anxiety and relief in Ukrainepublished at 17:21 Greenwich Mean Time 16 February 2022

    Viktoriia Zhuhan
    BBC Ukrainian

    Maria with her toddler in a stroller
    Image caption,

    Maria says she stayed up at night listening for signs of trouble

    Will Russia withdraw or not? That’s the question many Ukrainians are asking today.

    Reports from US intelligence had suggested Moscow could launch an attack overnight - but this did not happen.

    “When my son woke me up around 03:00, I stayed anxious and alert for some time trying to hear something in the night,” says 29-year-old Maria Shtogryn, a mother of a toddler from Odesa.

    “When nothing happened tonight, I felt relieved”.

    Ukrainians argue over whether the Russian invasion threat is real – in January 48% believed it was, and 39% thought it wasn’t.

    But more than half - 56.5% - agree that Ukraine’s military and diplomatic efforts to prevent it aren't enough.

    Maria says she’d like to see some defence reinforcements in place on the Black Sea beach where she strolls with her baby every day.

    For her, the danger of attack from the water is unsettling.

  6. Ukraine's Eurovision entry pulls out over Crimea visitpublished at 17:15 Greenwich Mean Time 16 February 2022

    Alina PashImage source, Alina Pash

    While it might sound unlikely, the ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine have had an impact on the Eurovision Song Contest, after Ukraine's candidate for this year's competition pulled out.

    Alina Pash had won a TV show to represent her country at the event, but she has now withdrawn from the process, with "a heavy heart".

    Ukraine's national broadcaster had already put her confirmation as the country's act on hold, while an investigation was being carried out into a 2015 trip she made to Crimea, an area Russia seized control of in 2014.

    The 28-year-old says some people have attacked her online and called her un-Ukrainian for the visit.

    In an Instagram post, external, she writes: "I am a Ukrainian citizen. I follow Ukrainian law and try to bring Ukraine's traditions and values into the world."

    Visiting Crimea can be frowned upon and there are strict rules in place over how people travel to the region, with Ukrainians and foreigners only allowed to travel there through official land checkpoints. It's illegal under Ukrainian law to travel to Crimea via Russia.

    Alina has provided authorities with proof of how she entered the region but that is under scrutiny.

  7. What is a Nato battlegroup?published at 17:09 Greenwich Mean Time 16 February 2022

    Soldiers take part in a battlegroup training exercise in Estonia, October 2020Image source, Getty Images
    Image caption,

    Soldiers take part in a battlegroup training exercise in Estonia, October 2020

    Nato commanders have been told to go away and figure out how to deploy new battlegroups in the south-east of Europe. But what are they?

    Battlegroups are "combat-ready" military groups made up of forces from different Nato countries working together. They include artillery, tanks, and infantry, among other specialised skills.

    They're what Nato calls an "enhanced forward presence" in response to Russia's invasion of Crimea in 2014 - and amount to "the biggest reinforcement of alliance collective defence in a generation".

    There are four at the moment, based in:

    • Estonia: Led by the United Kingdom with nearly 1,000 troops - mostly from the UK, but with a few hundred soldiers from Denmark, based on 2020 data from Nato
    • Latvia: Canada leads this 1,500-strong group, made up of roughly one-third Canadian troops but with solders from Poland, Slovakia, Spain, Italy and others
    • Lithuania: Some 1,200 troops, more than 500 of which come from Germany, with representatives from France, the Netherlands, and Norway, among others
    • Poland: Led by the United States, which provides about 670 troops - with the rest of its 1,000-strong number made up by Croatia, Romania and the UK

    Three of those nations border Russia, while Poland is just one country away (and borders Ukraine). They are among the pain points when Russia complains of US and other foreign troops near its border.

  8. Cyber-attack is largest in Ukraine's history, officials saypublished at 17:00 Greenwich Mean Time 16 February 2022

    PrivatBank was among those targeted in the cyber-attackImage source, Getty Images
    Image caption,

    PrivatBank was among those targeted in the cyber-attack

    Officials in Ukraine are saying that cyber-attacks, which began yesterday, are likely the worst the country has ever seen.

    At least 10 major Ukrainian websites were unreachable due to the attacks, including the defence, foreign and culture ministries and Ukraine’s two largest state banks.

    The attack was planned in advance, is ongoing and is being performed from several countries, Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov said at a briefing in Kyiv.

    The cost of the breach - through what is known as distributed denial-of-service or DDoS attacks - is now estimated to be in the millions of dollars.

    Ihor Konovalov, from the National Bank of Ukraine, said the two banks that were targeted were "fully prepared" and had recovered control of their accounts without any funds being stolen.

    Several Ukrainian officials have blamed Russia for the attack. They said its goal was to spread panic and instability. Moscow has denied involvement.

  9. Russia's response to US almost ready, says foreign ministrypublished at 16:54 Greenwich Mean Time 16 February 2022

    Caroline Davies
    BBC News, Moscow

    Maria ZakharovaImage source, Getty Images

    Before the Nato news conference Maria Zakharova, a Russian foreign ministry official, said that Moscow was preparing a fresh response to send to the US as the two countries continue a back-and-forth over the country's security demands.

    Russia issued demands to Nato and the US back in December which included a guarantee that Nato would not expand closer to Russia’s borders. Late last month, the US complied with Russia’s request that they write a written response to these demands.

    We asked Zakharova whether there were areas for negotiation given that Nato was not willing to abandon its open-door policy.

    “We would like both sides to hear each other, not lecture each other or to make empty statements,” she replied. “We will orientate ourselves on a serious conversation if our Western partners are ready for that.”

    Zakharova repeatedly criticised “Anglo-Saxon aggression, politics and rhetoric”, blaming this for escalating the crisis in Ukraine.

    She also dismissed Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg as “not the kind of person whose words can be seen in Moscow as serious arguments”.

  10. Recap: What did we learn from Nato news conference?published at 16:47 Greenwich Mean Time 16 February 2022

    Media caption,

    Watch: We do not see any signs of de-escalation on the ground, says Nato chief

    A little while earlier we heard from Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg. Here are the main lines from his news conference:

    • He said Russia testing the principles of Europe's security had become "the new normal" in Europe
    • As a result, Nato commanders are being told to figure out how to deploy new battlegroups in Europe's south-east, near the Russian border. Stoltenberg said no decision has been made, but perhaps it could be a French-led battlegroup stationed in Romania
    • No matter what the details, that's unlikely to be popular in Russia, which is already objecting to Nato's existing presence on its doorstep
    • But Stoltenberg insists that Nato is a defensive alliance only. "We are not a threat, we are ready for dialogue," he says
    • Beyond that, he said Russia's talk of a withdrawal from Ukraine's border isn't reflected by evidence on the ground, and the continued presence of troops is consistent with what "we expect will come in advance of a bigger military intervention"
  11. Analysis

    More Nato troops not the direction Russia wantspublished at 16:35 Greenwich Mean Time 16 February 2022

    Caroline Davies
    BBC Moscow correspondent

    Russia would consistently say that it doesn't see Nato as a defensive force, it sees it as one which is a threat to Russia.

    This has been the key security question that Russia has wanted an answer to and one of their big concerns is that the don't want Nato to expand any further.

    So the fact that there might be more troops, more feet on the ground in Nato countries, would be seen by Russia as going in the opposite direction to what Russia wants.

    There is of course no Kremlin response to Jens Stoltenberg's comments yet but it will be interesting to see what they say.

  12. High price if Russia invades, Nato chief sayspublished at 16:22 Greenwich Mean Time 16 February 2022

    Stoltenberg says there will be a "high price" if Russia uses force, saying sanctions will be imposed and that Ukraine is better trained and better equipped than when Russia annexed the Crimea in 2014.

    He says that even if we see a gradual development where Russia decides not to use force "the fact that they would be willing to amass all these troops and combine that with a message that they are threatening an independent country" - that in itself is serious.

    He says that is why Nato will have to consider some longer term adjustments in its posture in the East.

    No final decision has been made, but he says Romania is willing to host a battlegroup which France is willing to lead.

    And with that final question the news conference finishes.

  13. Nato predicted Russian troop build up - Stoltenbergpublished at 16:18 Greenwich Mean Time 16 February 2022

    Asked again about the reported withdrawal of Russian troops Jens Stoltenberg says that Nato has been "very transparent" and says the information it has been sharing can be confirmed from open sources - including commercial satellites.

    "I think it is very hard to dispute that Russia has amassed well over 100,000 troops and a lot of heavy equipment," he says.

    Stoltenberg adds that this is what Nato predicted several months ago and it has happened despite Russia denying that was the plan.

  14. Still signs of bigger military intervention - Stoltenbergpublished at 16:15 Greenwich Mean Time 16 February 2022

    Stoltenberg says there is "cautious optimism" that Russia is willing to engage in diplomatic efforts.

    "While we think this is something we should take seriously... what we see on the ground is no withdrawal of troops, forces, or equipment," Stoltenberg says.

    Coupled with a cyber-attack on Ukraine which some are linking to Russia, he says "these are the kind of actions and measures that we expect will come in advance of a bigger military intervention".

  15. Nato working on a 'defensive' strategypublished at 16:14 Greenwich Mean Time 16 February 2022

    Stoltenberg is asked if sending in additional battle groups to the East will antagonise Russia.

    The secretary general insists Nato is working on a "defensive" basis - and has been clear the alliance is ready to sit down with Russia and address issues such as arms control.

    He says the best way to move forward is "to engage in good faith" and talk.

    It is possible to engage with Russia, he says, adding: "We are not a threat, we are ready for dialogue."

    But he cautions that the "massive troop build-up" combined with "threatening rhetoric" alongside Russia's track record must be taken seriously.

    "That's why in a defensive way we are increasing our presence in the East," he adds.

  16. Russia has shown will to use force - Stoltenbergpublished at 16:11 Greenwich Mean Time 16 February 2022

    Jens Stoltenberg

    BBC defence correspondent Jonathan Beale asks about new battle-groups and what Stoltenberg means by the "new normal".

    He says the new normal is for Russia to test the principles which underpin European security and says they have used force to try to intimidate other countries in Europe to accept the Russian demands.

    He says it is violating core principles which have been important for decades.

    "Russia has demonstrated will to use force to try to coerce other countries and to try to change some fundamental principles that are important for our shared security," he says.

    He adds this is why it is important to consider long-term adjustments of Nato's posture in the east.

  17. Nato to look at establishing new battle groupspublished at 16:09 Greenwich Mean Time 16 February 2022

    Stoltenberg says Nato will look at establishing new battle groups in central and south-east regions within the alliance - such as Romania - as part of the defensive strategy against Russian aggression.

    He says military commanders will work on details and report back in weeks and there will be ongoing discussion on how Nato's defence can remain strong.

    An additional $270bn has been spent on Nato defence since 2014 by European allies and Canada, the secretary general adds.

  18. 'Biggest concentration in forces in Europe since the Cold War'published at 16:05 Greenwich Mean Time 16 February 2022

    "There are signs from Russia that diplomacy should continue but so far we do not see any sign of de-escalation on the ground," says Stoltenberg. "No withdrawl of troops or equipment."

    "This may of course change. But for now Russian maintains a massive invasion force ready to attack with high capabilities from Crimea to Belarus," he says.

    "This is the biggest concentration in forces in Europe since the Cold War."

  19. This is the new normal in Europe - Stoltenbergpublished at 16:03 Greenwich Mean Time 16 February 2022

    Stoltenberg says Nato is not a threat to Russia and the steps it is taking are "defensive".

    He says that we don't know what will happen in Ukraine but we already know there is a crisis in security in Europe.

    Moscow has made it clear it is prepared to test the fundamental principles which have underpinned European security by using force, he says, adding this is the "new normal in Europe".

  20. Nato will not compromise on core principles - Stoltenbergpublished at 15:59 Greenwich Mean Time 16 February 2022

    Jens Stoltenberg repeats that it is not too late for Russia to step back from the brink of conflict.

    He says that Nato has sent concrete proposals on paper to Russia on transparency and arms control.

    Nato will not compromise on its core principles, he says.