Vicki Young
Deputy political editor

Some Conservative MPs have been scratching their heads trying to understand why Rishi Sunak is doing this.

The most plausible explanation I’ve heard is that following the Uxbridge by-election win, he thinks there’s political advantage to be found in drawing a dividing line with Labour over green issues.

One former minister tells me the prime minister has always been “lukewarm” about the net zero target and is obsessed with gaining short-term praise from a section of the Tory party.

Chris Mason
Political editor

I am told Rishi Sunak is hosting a conference call right now with his cabinet to discuss his plans on green targets.

Plenty at Westminster expect the prime minister to then bring forward his speech on them to today – but currently Downing Street won’t confirm that. But they’re not denying it either.

In a situation like this, which they hadn’t anticipated, they have to very rapidly work out what he is going to say, and where he is going to say it. Both of these things can take time.

It is an insight into the chaos in government our story about what the prime minister has been considering has provoked.

Last night, I hear, ministers and special advisers were hitting the phones speaking to folk in the affected sectors – ‘stakeholders’ as Whitehall likes to call them. The aim was to reassure.

Some in the energy industry had even been meeting people in government yesterday afternoon, only to leave, turn on their phones, and discover from us that it looked like a lot was about to change.

Image source, .

Is the government right to push back some of the steps needed to get the UK to net zero carbon emissions by 2050, or should we be going faster to limit the rise in global temperatures?

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The impact of 'carbon budgets'published at 11:04 British Summer Time 20 September 2023

11:04 BST 20 September 2023

By Mark Poynting, climate and environment researcher

To map out the UK’s path to net zero, the government’s independent advisers, the Climate Change Committee (CCC), set “carbon budgets”.

These are caps on the amount of greenhouse gases that can be emitted over five year periods for the UK to meet its international commitments.

The UK has met its three previous carbon budget targets, using provisional data for the third, external.

In June, before these recent rumoured changes, the CCC said it was more confident than a year ago that the UK would meet its fourth budget – which runs between 2023 and 2027.

However, it also warned that it was now “markedly less confident” than a year ago that the government would meet its fifth and sixth budgets up to 2037 – highlighting a lack of urgency to deliver on its ambitious commitments in the medium-term.

It’s difficult to quantify the exact carbon costs of the rumoured shifts in policy, because it relies on many assumptions – for example how our consumption patterns may change.

But inevitably, it would make the current targets harder to achieve – as any extra carbon costs would have to be balanced by extra savings in other areas.

The chief executive of the CCC, Chris Stark, has just said, external that any change to the proposed trajectory of UK emissions would be a “genuine surprise” because the “legal carbon budgets determine that path”.

Here's a quick look back at the home secretary's appearance on the Today programme earlier this morning.

It's been a busy morning after the BBC revealed that the PM is considering a major shift on key climate action policies. Here's a recap of what we know so far:

• The PM says he remains committed to the 2050 net zero target but hinted at weakening some key policies like phasing out gas boilers and delaying a ban on the sales of new petrol and diesel cars
• Some Tory colleagues, including Home Secretary Suella Braverman, say he is being "pragmatic" and applaud him for making difficult decisions during the cost of living crisis
• But critics from his own party say this could be the "greatest mistake" of his premiership, while Lord Zac Goldsmith accuses the UK of turning "its back on future generations"

• Carmaker Ford tells Sunak they need more certainty, as does BMW. Ford says it made investment plans based on the 2030 target for cars

• Meanwhile Labour has clarified its position after some uncertainty overnight. Shadow chief secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones says the party is committed to bringing in the car ban in 2030 and if the Tories move it, Labour will bring it back in if they get elected

We've been hearing a lot from politicians on this issue but what does the public think about moving to net zero?

In July, pollsters YouGov asked just under 4,000 Britons if they supported the government's pledge to net zero by 2050 - with 71% saying they strongly or somewhat supported the aim.

About 16% said they were somewhat or strongly opposed to the commitment.

Last year, research from the same company showed few were willing to make "substantial" changes to their lifestyle to address climate change. In a similar survey just a few months later, many said the cost of living crisis should be a bigger priority for the government than climate change.

Meanwhile, Tory voters generally thought the same. ConservativeHome carried out a poll , externalin August suggesting party members are supportive of the net zero target but are pessimistic about whether it will be met.

They also strongly opposed the 2030 ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars.

Rishi Sunak says he will stick to the UK's 2050 target to be a net zero emitter of carbon dioxide, and that's because the UK has made a legally binding commitment to do so.

This means the country will no longer contribute any additional greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.

The net zero target was made legally binding by the Climate Change Act 2008 (2050 Target Amendment) Order 2019. Prior to this, the UK’s legally binding target was to reduce emissions by 80% compared to 1990 levels by 2050.

When proposing the law, the-then Prime Minister Theresa May said there was a "moral duty to leave this world in a better condition than what we inherited".

Home Secretary Suella Braverman says she backs Rishi Sunak's expected shift on how the UK gets to net zero carbon emissions.

"We're not going to save the country by bankrupting the British people," she tells BBC Breakfast.

Labour's shadow chief secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones says the party is committed to banning sales of new petrol and diesel cars from 2030.

Speaking to LBC, he said: "We supported the 2030 target when the Conservatives introduced it into Parliament."

He went on to confirm that Labour would bring back the target to 2030, should the Conservatives move it to 2035, if they win the next general election.

Weakening plans but sticking to 2050 target means kicking can down the roadpublished at 09:42 British Summer Time 20 September 2023

09:42 BST 20 September 2023

Justin Rowlatt
Climate editor

Importantly, Rishi Sunak is saying he will stick to the 2050 net zero target.

That means he’s really just kicking the can down the road. Cutting less now means we’ll have to make more rapid carbon cuts in the future.

Some of the things the prime minister is considering – no new rules on energy efficiency in the home, a delay on the ban on pure petrol and diesel cars and delaying the end of oil-fired boilers in off-grid homes - would save some people a fair bit of cash in the short run.

But there is an argument that making these kind of changes now gives the UK the chance to lead in all sorts of technologies the whole world is going to want in the future.

Here's a selection of this morning's front pages and how they covered the story, which BBC News broke yesterday evening.

Sunak can do little to please both Tory campspublished at 09:31 British Summer Time 20 September 2023

09:31 BST 20 September 2023

Henry Zeffman
Chief political correspondent

For months a debate has raged in the Conservative Party about what measures it is reasonable to expect the public to take to reduce Britain’s carbon emissions.

It sounds like Rishi Sunak is about to take a side in that debate.

Inevitably, the BBC’s revelation that the prime minister is considering changing a string of his climate change commitments sparked fury among green Tories.

But there is genuine delight this morning among the group of Conservatives, which is probably a bit bigger, who said that the costs of hitting net zero were too much for some Brits.

There may be little Sunak can do to please both sides simultaneously. But he will have known that when considering the changes - and has decided to press ahead anyway.

Ford has a strong presence in the UK and has made investment plans based on the government’s 2030 net zero commitments.

The carmaker said it had already invested £430m ($531m) in its UK facilities, according to Reuters, and had been planning further investments to fit with the 2030 timeline.

The 2030 target “is a vital catalyst to accelerate Ford into a cleaner future", Ford UK chair Lisa Brankin said in a statement on Wednesday.

The US giant is among the UK’s best-selling car brands and sold more than 126,000 vehicles in 2022 – second only to Volkswagen, according to Statista, external.

Ford in Britain has two factories in the UK – Dagenham in east London and Halewood on Merseyside.

Conservative MP and former COP26 president Sir Alok Sharma told us earlier he was "somewhat surprised" that Sunak was planning to make changes to net zero targets

Sharma led the UN climate change summit in Glasgow in 2016 when Boris Johnson was prime minister. Johnson called the deal reached after two weeks of negotiations a "game-changing agreement"

Business leaders want "clarity and certainty"

He said the existing agenda was good for the economy, good for jobs, good for the economy and good for the environment. The last thing business leaders want, he said, was "chopping and changing". But it is important to wait and see what the PM will say, he added.

Emissions cuts will have to be made elsewhere

He also said that if the government decides to scale back its plan to phase out petrol and diesel cars, it is going to have to cut emissions somewhere else.

Planet on life support

Sharma added that the path to limiting global temperature increases to 1.5C to 2100 remains weak. If countries row back on commitments, he said pointedly, the planet will be on life support.

Image source, PA Media

Here's the prime minister's full statement from last night in response to our story on how the government looks set to weaken key green policies:

Car giant Ford says if the UK government relaxes its plan to ban new petrol and diesel car sales by 2030 it will undermine the steps it has taken to get ready for the change.

"Our business needs three things from the UK government, ambition, commitment, and consistency... A relaxation of 2030 would undermine all three," said Ford's UK chair Lisa Brankin.

Image source, PA Media

We listened in to Suella Braverman's interview on Radio 4's Today programme - and here's a succinct list of everything you need to know from it.

• She repeated that the government remains "absolutely" committed to its 2050 net zero targets
• Asked to elaborate on what she meant by net zero potentially "bankrupting the British people", the home secretary said the cost of achieving some of the "arbitrary targets" must be considered - and urged them to be seen as goals not "straitjackets"
• Braverman called the 2030 goal - set by Boris Johnson's government - "unrealistic", and applauded the government for taking difficult decisions in support of economic growth
• The public wants a "cleaner, green country," she told the programme, but added it needed to be done in a "sensible way" by putting the economy, sustainability and bank balances first

Image source, PA Media

Rishi Sunak’s speculated delay on banning the sale of petrol and diesel cars is sending an “incredibly confusing” message to consumers, Mike Hawes, boss of industry body the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders has said.

Speaking to the BBC, Hawes said the industry “continues to invest billions of pounds into these new technologies, electrified vehicles, battery vehicles, both abroad and here in the UK” - with support from the government.

Delaying the ban would mean a delay on switching to sustainable forms of transport.

He questions the government’s strategy if the end goal remains to move away from fossil fuels to sustainable transport.

"We don't quite know what's going to happen now."

Henry Zeffman
Chief political correspondent

There is growing speculation in government that Rishi Sunak’s speech on a new approach to net zero could now come today.

It had been expected later in the week but the leak to the BBC of the plans may have accelerated the timetable in Downing Street.