Public spending squeezed, while tax burden remains high
Faisal Islam
Economics editor
The Autumn Statement does signal a change of gear on the government's economic policy.
Downing Street has clearly decided that the unexpectant buoyancy of tax revenues should be returned to businesses and to workers.
The latter is nicely timed for the election, especially as it will be delivered in January.
They are calculating that the shadow cast by last year’s mini Budget is over, and that having built up market credibility, some can now be spent with a significant set of giveaway decisions.
Other choices were available.
Public spending and investment remains squeezed, after accounting for inflation, at a time when the public has begun to notice severe strains in some health, education and council services.
And overall, freezing thresholds is generating so much tax revenue, with inflation higher than forecast, that the tax burden remains at a post war high.
The OBR confirmed that by 2028 a truly astonishing £46bn will be raised by the freezes, in just one year.
The question is whether the public will see this notable National Insurance cut as light at the end of the tunnel, or instead, a partial refund of the significant tax rise seen over the past two years.
BBCCopyright: BBC
It's difficult to declare a turning point in the economy
Faisal Islam
Economics editor
This Autumn Statement
is a significant tax cut both for businesses and for workers, after an
inflation-fuelled windfall for the public finances.
The whole £27 billion
improvement in the public finances - what the OBR refers to as a “windfall” -
was spent on a bigger than expected £9bn National Insurance cut and a £11bn tax
cut for business investment.
This is a choice. And
the chancellor’s view is that all of this will help the economy grow
eventually.
But that growth takes
time, years to really show through. That is why growth in the next couple of
years is close to zero, downgraded from the March forecast.
Not only is growth
lower, but inflation higher. The picture painted by the OBR forecast is
difficult to declare a definitive “turning point” in the economy.
This is a big deception on the British people - Ed Davey
Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey says today’s
Autumn Statement is “a big deception on the British people”.
He says that by freezing personal tax allowances, the government
is not cutting taxes, but increasing them “at a time when people can’t afford it”.
He adds that people are “suffering from the biggest
reduction in living standards since the 1950s”.
“No wonder people are upset.”
He also says business investment has been damaged by instability,
with the government continually “changing the goalposts”.
A new age of austerity may be looming
Dharshini David
Chief economics correspondent
The tax rises already in the system are helping pay for the chancellor's £20bn tax cutting spree - but so too is keeping a very tight rein on spending. It is that which has allowed Jeremy Hunt to claim he’s met his rules on borrowing with room to spare.
The totals he has pencilled in after the election in the years running up to 2029 means many government departments will struggle to keep up with inflation - some will see their money stretch not nearly as far as it does now.
To maintain that level of resources across departments, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility, the chancellor would have to find an extra £20.5bn a year by 2029 - almost exactly the size of his giveaway on tax and other items that year.
Someone has to pay the price: a new age of austerity may be looming.
Need a recap? Here are the key points...
Struggling to get your head around all the announcement in the Autumn Statement? We've put together an at-a-glance summary:
Taxation and wages
Main rate of National Insurance cut from 12% to 10% from 6 January, affecting 27 million people
Abolishment of NI for self-employed people earning more than £12,570 from April, with 8% to be paid on profits between £12,570 and £50,270 - a 1% cut
Legal minimum wage - known officially as the National Living Wage - to increase from £10.42 to £11.44 an hour from April
Benefits and pensions
Universal Credit and other working-age benefits to increase by 6.7% from April, in line with September's inflation rate
Work Capability Assessment to be reformed to reflect availability of home working
Claimants who are deemed able to work but refuse to seek employment will lose access to their benefits and extras like free prescriptions
State pension payments to increase by 8.5% from April, in line with average earnings
Business and infrastructure
"Full expensing" tax break - allowing companies to deduct spending on new machinery and equipment from profits - made permanent
The 75% business rates discount for retail, hospitality and leisure firms extended for another year
Other measures
All alcohol duty frozen until 1 August next year
For a full look at the announcements earlier, click here
Barber shop owner happy with cuts to business rates
Charlotte Simpson
BBC Newsbeat cost of living reporter
Camden tells us he’s the youngest person that owns a shop on the high street in Great Yarmouth, where we've come to speak to people about the Autumn Statement.
The 24-year-old, who opened his barber shop in the seaside town in January, says he's excited there will be an extension to full-expensing as he hopes to open another shop in the future.
This would help him to buy more kit - things like barber's chairs and salon quality scissors, which can be more than £600 for a set.
BBCCopyright: BBC
Camden opened his barbers in Great Yarmouth in JanuaryImage caption: Camden opened his barbers in Great Yarmouth in January
Camden thinks cutting business rates is important, especially in places like Great Yarmouth where he feels the focus is more on tourism and housing.
"Business rates, because of the place I am in, a seaside town,
they are kind of extortionate," he tells BBC Newsbeat.
"Being able to put them down a tiny bit would
make it more appealing for a young person to open a business if these things weren’t
as high.
"I am the youngest person who owns a business on this street and I have
been told by a lot of different guys you are so brave for doing this."
How does the Autumn Statement affect Scotland?
PA MEDIACopyright: PA MEDIA
The Scotch Whisky Association raised a dram to the Chancellor for today's alcohol duty freezeImage caption: The Scotch Whisky Association raised a dram to the Chancellor for today's alcohol duty freeze
According to the Autumn Statement the Scottish government will receive £545m over this financial year and the next via the Barnett formula - which is used to decide how much money devolved nations receive for public spending.
Nevertheless Scotland's Finance Secretary was critical of the chancellor's priorities in the statement.
Shona Robison said in the Holyrood chamber that it was disappointing the funds were not made available that devolved governments needed, and said it made budget challenges even more severe.
Contrast that with the Scotch Whisky Association which has welcomed today’s alcohol duty freeze, saying that the chancellor's decision to cancel a further hike in duty following the 10.1% increase seen in August provides “much-needed stability” for distillers.
While many of the areas covered in the statement fall under areas controlled by the Scottish government, several headline policies will affect Scots.
Ahead of the Autumn Statement I'd been to meet three mums on low incomes who told me uprating benefits in line with inflation should be one of the chancellor’s priorities.
They've now messaged me their reactions to what they heard in the speech.
Jo Baker MarshCopyright: Jo Baker Marsh
Jo Baker Marsh is a lone parent of a 14-year-old son with additional needs who says the statement was "exactly what I feared".
"We are led to believe that the cuts in National Insurance, the uprating of Universal Credit etc are benefiting us, they aren’t, they are preparing for support for their party in the next general election," she says.
"As I listened to statement, I received an email from British Gas to say the cost of my energy will rise in January. I know that my new mortgage payment in March will cripple me, and right now, I have zero belief that they are indeed, the ‘caring’ government they purport to be."
What was missing? Cost-of-living payments, VAT and house prices
Kevin Peachey
Cost of living correspondent
It is worth highlighting some of the factors that were missing from the Autumn Statement in terms of your finances.
Cost-of-living payments have been a lifeline for many people when it comes to paying the bills, although there is debate over how they were delivered. There is no promise to continue them beyond the spring.
VAT is untouched but the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) says the proportion of the tax being taken will rise as we consume more goods.
House prices will grow by 0.9% in 2023 and then fall by 4.7% in 2024, according to forecasts from the OBR. That may be good or bad news depending on whether you are a homeowner or a wannabe first-time buyer.
Hunt has already spent his fiscal headroom, says OBR
In its report on the government's tax and spending plans, the Office for Budget Responsibility says Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has £27bn in fiscal headroom - and most of that has already been spent in the measures he has outlined in the Autumn Statement.
Fiscal headroom is how much money the chancellor has for cutting taxes or raising spending, taking into account the rules the government has set itself. So, for example, one of its key rules is that borrowing must not exceed 3% of GDP at the end of a five year period.
The OBR says in its report: "The chancellor spends virtually all of this on a 2p cut in NICs [National Insurance Contributions], permanent tax relief for business investment, and further welfare reforms, leaving debt falling by a narrow margin in five years."
Biggest drop in living standards since 1950s - OBR
Chris Mason
Political editor
Crucial in every election campaign is a simple question: do
you feel better or worse off than at the last election?
Here are a couple of sentences from the Office for Budget
Responsibility:
“Living standards, as measured by real household disposable
income per person, are forecast to be 3.5 per cent lower in 2024-25 than their
pre-pandemic level.
"While this is half the peak-to-trough fall we expected in
March, it still represents the largest reduction in real living standards since
ONS records began in the 1950s.”
How have the growth forecasts changed?
Among the tax cuts and spending plans, Jeremy Hunt announced sharply lower growth forecasts, via the Office for Budget Responsibility.
The OBR says:
The economy will grow this year by 0.6% - that's compared to a 0.2% fall forecast in March
But in 2024, growth is only expected to be 0.7% - compared to 1.8% forecast in March
And in 2025, growth is forecast to be 1.4%, rather than 2.5%
You can see the fully revised five-year forecasts here:
BBCCopyright: BBC
Interest rates likely to stay higher for longer - OBR
Dearbail Jordan
Business reporter
The outlook for the UK is pretty subdued and inflation - as well as interest rates - will be higher for longer, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility.
In its report, which examines the plans outlined in the Autumn Statement, the OBR said it now forecasts that the economy will grow more slowly in the medium-term than it forecast at the spring Budget.
On inflation, the OBR now does not expect that to fall back to the Bank of England's 2% target until 2025. Only a few months ago, the OBR said inflation would drop to 0.9% next year.
What does this mean? Basically, interest rates will have to remain high for some time in order to control inflation, it says.
Firstly, with all the chat about
falling inflation:
“We…expect inflation to remain higher for longer, taking
until the second quarter of 2025 to return to the 2 per cent target, more than
a year later than forecast in March.”
And, with all the talk of the economy looking up - what
about how it feels for individuals?
“Real GDP per person remains 0.6 per cent below its
pre-pandemic peak and in the central forecast only recovers that peak at the
start of 2025,” writes the OBR.
Analysis
Hunt called them tax cuts... but are they?
Dharshini David
Chief economics correspondent
Don’t be fooled by the tax cuts.
The tax burden - the percentage of
the nation's income going to the taxman - is still set to rise to a post-war high,
according to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
It says the largest contribution to that is the freezing of
most income tax thresholds, so they don’t rise with inflation.
That so-called fiscal drag (the "drag" comes from people being dragged into higher tax brackets than they otherwise would have been - or having more of their income caught in a higher bracket) will net the Treasury £45bn by 2029 and create four million new income tax payers, according to the OBR.
Compare that £45bn gain to the cut in the main National Insurance Contribution rate - which will cost the treasury £10bn.
In effect, that tax cut is being funded by raiding our paycheques.
BBCCopyright: BBC
That was a lot. So, what did the chancellor announce?
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt started his speech by saying he had more than 100 measures in his full Autumn Statement.
Luckily for us (and you?) he didn't lay them all out in the House of Commons just now, but he did say rather a lot. Here are some of the key announcements he made:
National Insurance cut
The main rate for employees will be cut from 12% to 10% from 6 January.
It is currently charged at 12% on earnings between £12,571 and £50,271 - and 2% on anything above that.
The self-employed will benefit from changes to two other areas of National Insurance specific to them. Hunt said this would save a self-employed person about £350 a year.
Benefits rise but rules for some tightened
They will rise by 6.7% next year, in line with the inflation rate for September.
But welfare recipients will be made to undertake a mandatory work placement if they are still looking for a job after 18 months.
Minimum wage hike
The national living wage will rise to £11.44 an hour, up from £10.42
Boost for pensioners
The state pension will increase by 8.5% next year, in line with average earnings. It will reach £221 a week from April .
Tobacco and alcohol
Tobacco duty has been put up by 10%, while alcohol taxes have been frozen until 1 August.
Tax breaks for businesses
The government is making permanent a taxbreak for businesses which allows them to offset investment in machinery, IT and equipment against corporation tax
It is also extending business rate relief for many small firms, including pubs and other hospitality businesses
Post update
BBCCopyright: BBC
What do you want to know about the Autumn Statement? Our cost of living correspondent Kevin Peachey will be with us later to answer your questions.
In some cases a selection of your comments and questions will be published, displaying your name and location as you provide it unless you state otherwise. Your contact details will never be published.
What does it all mean? Stay with us...
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has given his Autumn Statement, Labour's Rachel Reeves has delivered her take on it, and now Hunt is back up again for questions from other MPs.
We'll move away from the Commons now to look in more detail about what it all means for all of us.
Our expert team are burying their noses in the fine print, and we're about to recap the key points - stay with us for more live coverage.
Time for change, says Reeves
Ending her remarks, Rachel Reeves says the Tories have "held back growth, they have crashed our economy, increased debt, trashed our public services, left businesses out in the cold, and made life harder for working people".
"Does anything in Britain work better today than when the Conservatives came into office 13 years ago?" she asks.
"It is time for change," she adds.
Reeves criticises Tory 'mortgage penalty'
Reeves now turns to what she calls the "Tory mortgage
penalty".
Those mortgaging since July have seen their payments "skyrocket
by an average of £220 a month” after last year's “kamikaze”
mini-budget by Kwasi Kwarteng.
“Next year half a million will face the same fate,” she
says.
Live Reporting
Edited by Heather Sharp and Sam Hancock
All times stated are UK
Get involved
Public spending squeezed, while tax burden remains high
Faisal Islam
Economics editor
The Autumn Statement does signal a change of gear on the government's economic policy.
Downing Street has clearly decided that the unexpectant buoyancy of tax revenues should be returned to businesses and to workers.
The latter is nicely timed for the election, especially as it will be delivered in January.
They are calculating that the shadow cast by last year’s mini Budget is over, and that having built up market credibility, some can now be spent with a significant set of giveaway decisions.
Other choices were available.
Public spending and investment remains squeezed, after accounting for inflation, at a time when the public has begun to notice severe strains in some health, education and council services.
And overall, freezing thresholds is generating so much tax revenue, with inflation higher than forecast, that the tax burden remains at a post war high.
The OBR confirmed that by 2028 a truly astonishing £46bn will be raised by the freezes, in just one year.
The question is whether the public will see this notable National Insurance cut as light at the end of the tunnel, or instead, a partial refund of the significant tax rise seen over the past two years.
It's difficult to declare a turning point in the economy
Faisal Islam
Economics editor
This Autumn Statement is a significant tax cut both for businesses and for workers, after an inflation-fuelled windfall for the public finances.
The whole £27 billion improvement in the public finances - what the OBR refers to as a “windfall” - was spent on a bigger than expected £9bn National Insurance cut and a £11bn tax cut for business investment.
This is a choice. And the chancellor’s view is that all of this will help the economy grow eventually.
But that growth takes time, years to really show through. That is why growth in the next couple of years is close to zero, downgraded from the March forecast.
Not only is growth lower, but inflation higher. The picture painted by the OBR forecast is difficult to declare a definitive “turning point” in the economy.
This is a big deception on the British people - Ed Davey
Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey says today’s Autumn Statement is “a big deception on the British people”.
He says that by freezing personal tax allowances, the government is not cutting taxes, but increasing them “at a time when people can’t afford it”.
He adds that people are “suffering from the biggest reduction in living standards since the 1950s”.
“No wonder people are upset.”
He also says business investment has been damaged by instability, with the government continually “changing the goalposts”.
A new age of austerity may be looming
Dharshini David
Chief economics correspondent
The tax rises already in the system are helping pay for the chancellor's £20bn tax cutting spree - but so too is keeping a very tight rein on spending. It is that which has allowed Jeremy Hunt to claim he’s met his rules on borrowing with room to spare.
The totals he has pencilled in after the election in the years running up to 2029 means many government departments will struggle to keep up with inflation - some will see their money stretch not nearly as far as it does now.
To maintain that level of resources across departments, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility, the chancellor would have to find an extra £20.5bn a year by 2029 - almost exactly the size of his giveaway on tax and other items that year.
Someone has to pay the price: a new age of austerity may be looming.
Need a recap? Here are the key points...
Struggling to get your head around all the announcement in the Autumn Statement? We've put together an at-a-glance summary:
Taxation and wages
Benefits and pensions
Business and infrastructure
Other measures
For a full look at the announcements earlier, click here
Barber shop owner happy with cuts to business rates
Charlotte Simpson
BBC Newsbeat cost of living reporter
Camden tells us he’s the youngest person that owns a shop on the high street in Great Yarmouth, where we've come to speak to people about the Autumn Statement.
The 24-year-old, who opened his barber shop in the seaside town in January, says he's excited there will be an extension to full-expensing as he hopes to open another shop in the future.
This would help him to buy more kit - things like barber's chairs and salon quality scissors, which can be more than £600 for a set.
Camden thinks cutting business rates is important, especially in places like Great Yarmouth where he feels the focus is more on tourism and housing.
"Business rates, because of the place I am in, a seaside town, they are kind of extortionate," he tells BBC Newsbeat.
"Being able to put them down a tiny bit would make it more appealing for a young person to open a business if these things weren’t as high.
"I am the youngest person who owns a business on this street and I have been told by a lot of different guys you are so brave for doing this."
How does the Autumn Statement affect Scotland?
According to the Autumn Statement the Scottish government will receive £545m over this financial year and the next via the Barnett formula - which is used to decide how much money devolved nations receive for public spending.
Nevertheless Scotland's Finance Secretary was critical of the chancellor's priorities in the statement.
Shona Robison said in the Holyrood chamber that it was disappointing the funds were not made available that devolved governments needed, and said it made budget challenges even more severe.
Contrast that with the Scotch Whisky Association which has welcomed today’s alcohol duty freeze, saying that the chancellor's decision to cancel a further hike in duty following the 10.1% increase seen in August provides “much-needed stability” for distillers.
While many of the areas covered in the statement fall under areas controlled by the Scottish government, several headline policies will affect Scots.
Read more: How the Autumn Statement affects Scotland
'I have zero belief they're a caring government'
Colletta Smith
Cost of living correspondent
Ahead of the Autumn Statement I'd been to meet three mums on low incomes who told me uprating benefits in line with inflation should be one of the chancellor’s priorities.
They've now messaged me their reactions to what they heard in the speech.
Jo Baker Marsh is a lone parent of a 14-year-old son with additional needs who says the statement was "exactly what I feared".
"We are led to believe that the cuts in National Insurance, the uprating of Universal Credit etc are benefiting us, they aren’t, they are preparing for support for their party in the next general election," she says.
"As I listened to statement, I received an email from British Gas to say the cost of my energy will rise in January. I know that my new mortgage payment in March will cripple me, and right now, I have zero belief that they are indeed, the ‘caring’ government they purport to be."
What was missing? Cost-of-living payments, VAT and house prices
Kevin Peachey
Cost of living correspondent
It is worth highlighting some of the factors that were missing from the Autumn Statement in terms of your finances.
Cost-of-living payments have been a lifeline for many people when it comes to paying the bills, although there is debate over how they were delivered. There is no promise to continue them beyond the spring.
VAT is untouched but the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) says the proportion of the tax being taken will rise as we consume more goods.
House prices will grow by 0.9% in 2023 and then fall by 4.7% in 2024, according to forecasts from the OBR. That may be good or bad news depending on whether you are a homeowner or a wannabe first-time buyer.
Hunt has already spent his fiscal headroom, says OBR
In its report on the government's tax and spending plans, the Office for Budget Responsibility says Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has £27bn in fiscal headroom - and most of that has already been spent in the measures he has outlined in the Autumn Statement.
Fiscal headroom is how much money the chancellor has for cutting taxes or raising spending, taking into account the rules the government has set itself. So, for example, one of its key rules is that borrowing must not exceed 3% of GDP at the end of a five year period.
The OBR says in its report: "The chancellor spends virtually all of this on a 2p cut in NICs [National Insurance Contributions], permanent tax relief for business investment, and further welfare reforms, leaving debt falling by a narrow margin in five years."
Biggest drop in living standards since 1950s - OBR
Chris Mason
Political editor
Crucial in every election campaign is a simple question: do you feel better or worse off than at the last election?
Here are a couple of sentences from the Office for Budget Responsibility:
“Living standards, as measured by real household disposable income per person, are forecast to be 3.5 per cent lower in 2024-25 than their pre-pandemic level.
"While this is half the peak-to-trough fall we expected in March, it still represents the largest reduction in real living standards since ONS records began in the 1950s.”
How have the growth forecasts changed?
Among the tax cuts and spending plans, Jeremy Hunt announced sharply lower growth forecasts, via the Office for Budget Responsibility.
The OBR says:
You can see the fully revised five-year forecasts here:
Interest rates likely to stay higher for longer - OBR
Dearbail Jordan
Business reporter
The outlook for the UK is pretty subdued and inflation - as well as interest rates - will be higher for longer, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility.
In its report, which examines the plans outlined in the Autumn Statement, the OBR said it now forecasts that the economy will grow more slowly in the medium-term than it forecast at the spring Budget.
On inflation, the OBR now does not expect that to fall back to the Bank of England's 2% target until 2025. Only a few months ago, the OBR said inflation would drop to 0.9% next year.
What does this mean? Basically, interest rates will have to remain high for some time in order to control inflation, it says.
Read more here on how interest rates affect you and your money
What does the OBR's big book say?
Chris Mason
Political editor
I'm now poring over the Office for Budget Responsibility’s big book.
Here are a couple of things I've spotted.
Firstly, with all the chat about falling inflation:
And, with all the talk of the economy looking up - what about how it feels for individuals?
Hunt called them tax cuts... but are they?
Dharshini David
Chief economics correspondent
Don’t be fooled by the tax cuts.
The tax burden - the percentage of the nation's income going to the taxman - is still set to rise to a post-war high, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
It says the largest contribution to that is the freezing of most income tax thresholds, so they don’t rise with inflation.
That so-called fiscal drag (the "drag" comes from people being dragged into higher tax brackets than they otherwise would have been - or having more of their income caught in a higher bracket) will net the Treasury £45bn by 2029 and create four million new income tax payers, according to the OBR.
Compare that £45bn gain to the cut in the main National Insurance Contribution rate - which will cost the treasury £10bn.
In effect, that tax cut is being funded by raiding our paycheques.
That was a lot. So, what did the chancellor announce?
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt started his speech by saying he had more than 100 measures in his full Autumn Statement.
Luckily for us (and you?) he didn't lay them all out in the House of Commons just now, but he did say rather a lot. Here are some of the key announcements he made:
National Insurance cut
The main rate for employees will be cut from 12% to 10% from 6 January.
It is currently charged at 12% on earnings between £12,571 and £50,271 - and 2% on anything above that.
The self-employed will benefit from changes to two other areas of National Insurance specific to them. Hunt said this would save a self-employed person about £350 a year.
Benefits rise but rules for some tightened
They will rise by 6.7% next year, in line with the inflation rate for September.
But welfare recipients will be made to undertake a mandatory work placement if they are still looking for a job after 18 months.
Minimum wage hike
The national living wage will rise to £11.44 an hour, up from £10.42
Boost for pensioners
The state pension will increase by 8.5% next year, in line with average earnings. It will reach £221 a week from April .
Tobacco and alcohol
Tobacco duty has been put up by 10%, while alcohol taxes have been frozen until 1 August.
Tax breaks for businesses
The government is making permanent a taxbreak for businesses which allows them to offset investment in machinery, IT and equipment against corporation tax
It is also extending business rate relief for many small firms, including pubs and other hospitality businesses
Post update
What do you want to know about the Autumn Statement? Our cost of living correspondent Kevin Peachey will be with us later to answer your questions.
You can get in touch in the following ways:
In some cases a selection of your comments and questions will be published, displaying your name and location as you provide it unless you state otherwise. Your contact details will never be published.
What does it all mean? Stay with us...
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has given his Autumn Statement, Labour's Rachel Reeves has delivered her take on it, and now Hunt is back up again for questions from other MPs.
We'll move away from the Commons now to look in more detail about what it all means for all of us.
Our expert team are burying their noses in the fine print, and we're about to recap the key points - stay with us for more live coverage.
Time for change, says Reeves
Ending her remarks, Rachel Reeves says the Tories have "held back growth, they have crashed our economy, increased debt, trashed our public services, left businesses out in the cold, and made life harder for working people".
"Does anything in Britain work better today than when the Conservatives came into office 13 years ago?" she asks.
"It is time for change," she adds.
Reeves criticises Tory 'mortgage penalty'
Reeves now turns to what she calls the "Tory mortgage penalty".
Those mortgaging since July have seen their payments "skyrocket by an average of £220 a month” after last year's “kamikaze” mini-budget by Kwasi Kwarteng.
“Next year half a million will face the same fate,” she says.