Image source, Tori Watson

That concludes this morning’s Health Committee session.

MLAs are now preparing for a meeting of the Ad Hoc Covid-19 Response Committee.

They’re due to hear statements from the First and deputy First Ministers, Arlene Foster and Michelle O'Neill, as well as Education Minister Peter Weir, Justice Minister Naomi Long and Health Minister Robin Swann.

It’s going to be a busy afternoon - and not one you’ll want to miss.

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Cara Hunter of the SDLP asks the chief scientific adviser what conversations he had with the Department of Education.

“We’ve had ongoing discussions with the Department for Education,” says Prof Ian Young.

He outlines that there has been a testing pilot in Limavady, adding that more information will be available on this in the near future.

“What would be the immediate consequence of not imposing these tighter restrictions over coming weeks?” asks UUP MLA Alan Chambers.

The chief scientific adviser says, at present, “we expect pressures on our hospital system to peak at mid-to-late January at a much higher level of inpatients and ICU (Intensive Care Unit) occupancy than we have seen to date in the course of the pandemic”.

“If the new restrictions were not in place, then the danger is those numbers would plateau at a very high level probably for two to three months minimum, before we began to see benefit of vaccination and possible seasonal effects of the virus,” adds Prof Young.

The hope is, he explains, that the new restrictions will “reduce the pressures on our health and social care force which will be facing enormous challenges over the next few weeks”.

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Sinn Féin has welcomed the news that GCSE, AS and A-level exams will not go ahead in Northern Ireland this year.

The party's education spokeswoman Karen Mullan said: "This decision not to go ahead with this year's GCSE, AS and A-level because of the pandemic and the disruption to young people's education is the right thing to do.

"Exams are stressful at any time but, this year, young people have been placed under so much more stress and worry as a result of Covid and its impact on their education."

She said the education minister must now bring ahead "credible alternative arrangements" and called for the AQE post-primary transfer test to be scrapped as well.

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Would you agree your strategy to tackle Covid-19 has “failed abysmally?"

That’s the question Sinn Féin’s Pat Sheehan puts to the chief scientific adviser at the health committee

Prof Ian Young responds that “the strategy and the measures that have been taken have been decisions of the executive and have been informed by advice and will continue to be informed by advice”.

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“Do I think we have done well in terms of the epidemic? It’s very difficult to compare different countries, different cultures,” he says.

“Do I wish we could have done better? Absolutely.

“Would there be decisions which I think could have been taken differently, looking backwards? Without a doubt.”

When pressed on which decisions he is referring to, Prof Young lists a variety of things, including the potential “merit in taking action around travel” on a UK and Ireland-wide basis at the start of the pandemic “before the virus has become very well established”.

Rising numbers of Covid-19 cases in Northern Ireland can be attributed to increased contacts rather than the new variant of the virus, MLAs are told.

Prof Ian Young says the two-week relaxation of restrictions and inter-generational mixing at Christmas has been the most significant factor.

“At present our view is that the current numbers can be explained simply by the increased contact patterns and mixing before Christmas,” he says.

“And that any impact of new variant virus is likely to be relatively small.”

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Who is working on Covid-19 modelling for NI?

That’s what Órlaíthi Flynn of Sinn Féin wants to know.

Prof Ian Young says he doesn’t have a direct support team in the department, but that there are “two key advisory groups with whom I work”.

One is the strategic intelligence group - it reviews all the papers from SAGE in the context of NI and additional resources; the second is the modelling group.

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Beyond these NI groups, Prof Young says he also works with other modelling groups across the UK.

Modelling has been created up to the end of January, “so that the trusts are aware of what is likely to be coming down the line” adds Prof Young.

He adds: "Unfortunately, our trusts are going to be under very severe pressures until the end of January” and calls for the public to adhere to new restrictions being introduced.

Gerry Carroll of People Before Profit says he's "very concerned about the delay in the second dose of the vaccine”.

He asks what input do the chief scientific adviser (CSA) or the chief medical officer have into the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) process.

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It’s an independent process, says Prof Ian Young, adding that “we have no input into the JCVI consideration”.

The issue has been discussed at SAGE, says the CSA, adding that Independent SAGE “is also supportive, in the current circumstances, of the approach”.

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All GCSE, AS and A-level examinations in Northern Ireland will not go ahead this year, BBC News NI understands.

Education Minister Peter Weir is due to make the announcement in the assembly later.

Some GCSE exams were due to take place next week.

It is understood the examinations scheduled for January, February and May and June will not go ahead. But it is not yet clear what alternative awarding arrangements will be in place.

Read more on this story here.

The track-and-trace service in Northern Ireland has been achieving “over 90% of contacts within a 24-hour period, so that process is now a relatively rapid one”, the chief scientific adviser says.

Prof Young was responding to a question from South Belfast representative Paula Bradshaw who was wondering about delays in the system.

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The challenge is around identifying who is a close contact, says Prof Young.

He explains the UK definition, which is someone who has been at less that 2m for 15 minutes or more within the 48-hour period before the individual became symptomatic or someone who has shared a close contact, such as a car, for example, for a shorter period of time.

Children play "a larger role in transmission of the virus than we previously realised”, according to Prof Young.

Prof Young tells the committee that this evidence is more recent and comes from studies taking place across the UK.

Young children are “somewhat less likely to become infected to to transmit the virus,” he adds.

However, he did point out that children are more “likely to be asymptomatic” but can “inadvertently bring the virus into the household” and spread it to adults who may then develop symptoms.

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Prof Young says “we have seen a significant number of outbreaks in NI, including some large outbreaks associated with schools”.

He clarifies that these have been due to “interactions” between children inside and outside of school.

There have been “larger outbreaks associated with older children attending secondary education,” says the CSA.

DUP MLA Jonathan Buckley asks about the effect that new variants could have on the vaccines which have been developed to date.

The chief medical adviser says the view about the UK variant is “that we do not believe that it will impact on the success of the vaccination programme”.

Image source, NI Assembly

“There’s a little bit more uncertainty about the South African variant,” Prof Ian Young adds, but says it is “not established at the moment in the UK in any significant amounts”.

“It’s almost inevitable there will be additional variants in the future,” says the chief scientific officer.

“We will know within the next few weeks” whether the current vaccines will tackle the South African variant, he says.

Could there be a 24/7 roll-out of the Covid vaccine in Northern Ireland?

That is the question posed by DUP MLA Pam Cameron.

The chief scientific adviser says the vaccine will be rolled out “as quickly as can be done”.

Prof Ian Young adds that the “main limiting factor” in the roll-out, is the “availability of the vaccine to NI rather than the extent to which vaccinators and the 24/7 vaccination service is available”.

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“Covid is always going to be with us, we’re never going to move to a world where Covid does not exist, as far as I can see,” says the chief scientific adviser.

He adds that it is “quite likely” that individuals may “need to have repeat vaccines after a period of time to retain immunity”.

Pam Cameron of the DUP, deputy chair of the health committee, asks the chief scientific adviser for “clarity” for those who were previously shielding.

Image source, NI Assembly

Prof Ian Young says the advice would be to shield again “given the current state of the virus”.

He adds that this advice would be “regardless of age of individuals” and advises MLAs that he expects further information on this in the near future.

Turning to vaccines, Colm Gildernew, the health committee chair, asks about the extension in the delivery of the second dose of the vaccine.

The UK will give both parts of the Oxford and Pfizer vaccines 12 weeks apart, having initially planned to leave 21 days between the Pfizer jabs.

Prof Ian Young says he’s “fully aware of the debate” and the “strong views which have been expressed on both sides”.

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“The evidence is relatively complex, and the decision is a balanced one,” he adds, and says people can read it online.

“Everybody will get a second dose of the vaccine,” adds the chief scientific adviser.

Colm Gildernew of Sinn Féin asks the chief scientific adviser (CSA) about the new coronavirus variant which was identified in south- east England at the end of last year.

“It’s quite complicated to diagnose the presence of [the] new variant,” says Prof Ian Young, but assures members that there is work ongoing in this area.

Image source, Getty Images

He adds that more definite information on the new variant will be available in the coming weeks, but that “best judgement is that the new variant is likely to be only present as a small minority of cases”.

Prof Young says the new variant of the virus is between 40-70% “more transmissible than the existing variant”.

Prof Ian Young says “we have seen a fairly dramatic increase in terms of the transmission of the virus since the Christmas period”.

“The average number of cases per day has risen to around 1,800,” he says, adding that the reproduction (R) rate is currently sitting at about 1.8.

Image source, NI Assembly

“Within the last few days the increase in cases has begun to feed through to the increased pressures in our hospitals,” adds the chief scientific adviser.

“We hope to see the impact of the restrictions that have been in place from 26 December towards the end of this week, in terms of a reduction in R,” he says, but adds that hospital admissions and those required treatment “will continue to rise”.

Image source, NI Assembly

Committee Chair Colm Gildernew opens the health committee by saying “we’re having to impose restrictions on people's normal way of life”.

The Sinn Féin MLA adds that it is “deeply frustrating that we are seeing this situation arise once again”.

Mr Gildernew then welcomes Prof Ian Young, the Chief Scientific Adviser, to the committee. He joins by video-link.