Ed Brown
Newsnight producer

Image source, PA

Jeremy Corbyn's success in getting over the nominations line was heralded by many in Labour as a victory for the party "having a proper debate" over its future. It's my general observation that leadership and deputy leadership candidates tend to start using language like "having a proper debate" when they've realised that they're trying to dodge the question they've actually been asked.

But there is an irony here - whilst Jeremy Corbyn has been the apotheosis of the "need to have a proper debate" meme, he is, as far as I can see, the candidate least likely to dodge a question. Why?

Because Jeremy Corbyn is, as has been well covered, an unapologetic member of Labour's left. He wants to ditch austerity, is a big fan of the unions, get rid of Trident, and believes we should be trumpeting the benefits of migrants.

Everybody knows what Jeremy Corbyn thinks - including Jeremy himself.

The problem is, for years, being on the left in the Labour Party has been a guaranteed ticket to relative obscurity. The conventional wisdom since the 1980s has been that the votes simply aren't there to support a full blown, unabashed socialist Labour party.

The polls suggest the conventional wisdom is right.

But tonight Jeremy Corbyn has the chance to prove it wrong. 

Let's suppose, on the off chance, that he goes down a storm in Nuneaton. That after 30 years of centrist(ish) politics, what middle England wants is a proper socialist. And that Corbyn ends up winning the leadership. It would be a vindication for the Labour left. 

But one wonders how many of the Parliamentary Party would start regretting those worthy statements about "having a proper debate" that got him on the ballot paper in the first place.

Lewis Goodall
Newsnight producer

Image source, Paramount

Clement Attlee. Richard Nixon. Nick Clegg. William T Riker. Paul Nuttall.

Which of the five Labour deputy candidates will join this illustrious list in a few months time?

And why would they want it?

At one time or another, all famous deputies probably come to resent not sitting in the big chair themselves. John Nance Garner, the  Vice-President to FDR famously famously remarked that the vice-presidency "isn't worth a bucket of warm piss." I would never dream of saying the same of the Labour deputy leadership  but if any of the candidates see the job as a potential springboard to yet greater things, they can probably think again. 

Of the sixteen Labour party deputy leaders since the great John Robert Clynes, only two, Clement Attlee and Michael Foot have gone on to be elected leader. That wasn't for lack of talent, previous occupants of the office include Nye Bevan, George Brown, Roy Jenkins, Denis Healey, to name but a few. Yet none of them, for whatever reason made the final great leap forward. Perhaps because deputy leaders become so identified with their leaders, whenever a time does come for a change they seem a little ancien regime.

But perhaps they don't want it anyway; the role within the Labour party and the sort of people it attracts seems to have changed. Once upon a time frontbenchers who clearly coveted the big job went for it, like some of those mentioned above. Increasingly though,  the job is pitched as a "campaigning" role. A way of guaranteeing yourself influence in the party, a seat around the cabinet table but not necessarily greater reward besides; Harriet Harman was even denied the title of Deputy Prime Minister under Gordon Brown. Indeed, the young bucks likely to run if the leaders job came up again, Tristram Hunt, Chuka Umunna, Rachel Reeves aren't running for it and nor is it likely that Angela Eagle, Tom Watson or Caroline Flint think it likely they'll be leader in the future.

Still, sometimes it can work out, there was once a talented young deputy to some obscure figure called Alex Salmond who I hear isn't doing too badly at the moment.

Ed Brown
Newsnight producer

Image source, PA

I'm slightly late to this - but Osborne today said at PMQs that the UK represented 1% of world population, 4% of world GDP, and 7% of global welfare spend.

Strictly speaking, this is true. 

But it's a bit misleading.

The implication is that the UK's welfare spending is out of kilter with its size - we are spending too much on it.

That may well be true - but this isn't the statistic I'd use to demonstrate it. Why?

Because it's only when countries become pretty well off that they can afford to spend any significant chunk of money on welfare. Putting countries like Zimbabwe into the figure (as you do with global welfare spend) just skews the numbers - unless you think that Zimbabwe would choose not to have a welfare state if it could afford one. Which the evidence of the last couple of centuries in the Western world suggests not.

The evidence is that, generally speaking, as countries get richer, they can afford to and choose to spend more money on welfare in both absolute and proportionate terms. Germany, for example, represents 13% of global social security expenditure, France 10%, the US 19% and Japan 11%.*

When compared with other advanced economies, on George Osborne's own metric (which for the reasons I've stated isn't necessarily a particularly useful one) we appear to be a model of restraint on welfare spending.

*Figures from the World Bank

Ed Brown
Newsnight producer

Image source, PA

Yvette Cooper has a pretty strong claim to being the most experienced of the candidates. Yes, Jeremy Corbyn has been an MP for longer. But he's not been Secretary of State and Work and Pensions or Chief Secretary to the Treasury.

That last position rather illustrates the downside of experience. She was right in the thick of the Brown administration from 2008-9. Whatever you think about the merits or demerits of Brown's bailouts and macroeconomic management, it makes it rather difficult for Cooper to disassociate herself from Labour's economic policy in the Brown Government - and harder for her to present herself as a change candidate.

Her slightly awkward pitch on the "did Labour spend too much" question is a product of this history. "Ideally, it should have been in surplus", she told Newsnight "However, what was the consequence of that? Tories want to say that the consequence was that it either cause the financial crisis which it didn't.. Or that it made it harder to deal with the financial crisis which it also didn't". 

Cooper's campaign, then, has necessarily had fewer radical flashes and bangs than, say, Kendall's has had.

But one can't help thinking, looking down the list of public policy statements she has made recently, that she is genuinely trying to pitch to all parts of the party.

She backs the 50p tax rate (appeals to the left) 

But also backs keeping corporation tax at 20% (appeals to the right)

She says the free schools "experiment" hasn't worked.

But the party shouldn't be "squeamish" about controls on immigration.

One of her big pitches is for a Scandinavian style universal child care system - which is a fairly straightforward bit of social democracy.

Cooper's campaign might not be desperately challenging to the views of Labour membership. But they are, you know, the actual electorate in this leadership contest.

For her, tonight is an opportunity for her to show why her experience matters. As one of the two front runners after the nominations process, her first priority will be not to say anything stupid - she has less to gain from flat out controversialism. But the bigger goal will be for her to exude that most difficult to pin down of properties - being "Prime Ministerial" not just for Labour members, but for swing voters in places like Nuneaton. If she can do that, Labour voters might start thinking that this is the person that really could lead them into No 10. 

Lewis Goodall
Newsnight producer

Can you believe it? It's less than four hours to go until Newsnight's Labour leadership hustings.

It's like Christmas eve in the Newsnight office. And doubtless on the streets of Nuneaton too. And here's an early present in your stocking, some pictures of us getting ready:

The One Show might be on but there's only one show you'll want to watch. Oh yes. BBC 2. 7pm.   

A big thanks to Richard Kenny for these no expense spared pictures.

Duncan Weldon
Economics correspondent

To think about whether or not a deal between Greece and its creditors is possible, it’s best to strip the talks down to their fundamentals.

To hugely over-simplify the fraught negotiations between Greece and its creditors, let’s assume that only two issues are really outstanding – (i) labour market and pension reforms and (ii) debt restructuring.

That is admittedly a big simplification but not necessarily an over-simplification. What was once the third big difference (the level of Greek primary budget surpluses or, in more emotive language, “austerity”) is no longer a key divide – the two sides are much closer together.

Now, let’s assume that there are really three sides in the talks that need to reach an agreement: the IMF, the Europeans (here I’m grouping together the EC, the ECB and the other individual Eurozone members) and the Greeks.

Where do they each stand on the two key issues?

The IMF think that Greece should carry out reforms to its labour market and pension system.  They also think that Greek government debt needs to be restructured.

The Europeans also want the same kind of labour market and pension reforms as the IMF but are against a debt restructuring (not an easy thing to sell to their domestic audiences).

The Greek government don’t want to carry out the IMF/European recommended labour market and pension reforms but clearly do want a debt restructuring.

Which really only leaves one potential way of out this mess: the IMF position. An offer of labour market and pension reform plus debt restructuring may be the only sellable deal in the longer term.

That’s a win for both Greece (on debt) and the Europeans (on reform) and also a defeat for both of them too. That’s what a compromise looks like.

Of course just because such a deal is possible doesn’t mean it’ll happen.

Laura Kuenssberg
Newsnight Chief Correspondent

Lewis Goodall
Newsnight producer

Two groups of people will be thrilled with today's PMQs. The first is Hillary Benn, whose sober and serious questioning of George Osborne doubtless impressed his colleagues. The second will be Westminster hacks and sketch writers, who can console themselves that Hillary Benn (acting today as the stand in for the stand in) will probably never do it again. 

As refreshing as the serious questioning is, it doesn't make great copy.

But it worked extremely well in the chamber. The Chancellor, in his debut as the new William Hague with hair, was deprived of his raison d'etre, which is to bellow "'Long term economic plan" at every opportunity.Instead he was forced to defend detailed policy on foreign and security affairs on IS and Mediterranean migration, not his home turf by any means.

Nonetheless Osborne can comfort himself that he got through it, albeit with his performance characterised by more than a whiff of Gordon Brown. Once again the Chancellor showed himself to be the true heir of the former Labour prime minister, his answers replete with pre-prepared and ill-timed jokes ("there are no Benns in the leadership contest but plenty of Bennites") and reams of endless statistics on employment figures, regional growth and pig-iron production.

Interestingly, the great blonde mop was no-where to be seen. Perhaps Boris couldn't bear to see another of the Tory enfants-terribles settle in at the dispatch box as a prime ministerial understudy.  Perhaps the Mayor's best hope is for that infamous "Long Term Economic Plan" to be be blown off course between now and the next Tory leadership contest. In truth, that, or another omnishambles type budget, might be the only thing to derail the Chancellor from moving next door and doing PMQs on a much more regular basis. 

Backbencher of the week- Tom Brake: Spare a thought for poor Tom Brake, today the only Lib Dem in the chamber. He could be a character in the next series of Little Britain. Or not.

Image source, Reuters

Duncan Weldon
Economics correspondent

Image source, Reuters

It's the day before the latest "crunch" talks on Greece and a few optimistic straws are in the wind. As tweeted by Eurozone analyst Yannis Koutsomitis:

That's a significant statement, it's caveated as "intentions" can of course change, but that seems to be ruling out of new elections or a referendum in Greece.   Given that Syriza does not believe they have a mandate for a Euro exit, that may signal an intention to do a deal. 

Two comments today from Valdis Dombrovskis (the European Commission Vice President responsible for the Euro) offer further grounds for optimism and a clue as to what a deal might look like.

In other words - if Greece can't accept further pension cuts, then it may be able to propose another way to make the fiscal numbers add up. 

And if Greece is looking for an area to cut, there is an elephant in the room. 

Greece is one of very few countries to meet the NATO defence spending target of 2.0% of GDP. 

Of course cutting defence spending would present it's own political problems in Greece, the current Defence Minister is the leader of Syriza's coalition partners the nationalist Independent Greeks.

And amid the signs for optimism,, it;s very clear today that the path to a deal will not be easy.  

Without some sort of further debt relief, it's hard to see a deal which is sell-able in Greece.

In many ways some of the most crucial discussion in the coming days will not be between Greece and its creditors but between the creditors themselves. If the IMF manages to persuade the Europeans to put something explicit on debt relief on the table then a deal could follow relatively quickly. 

Emily Maitlis
Newsnight Presenter

Nuneaton as I said on Election night – was the ‘Basildon of 2015’. The moment that told us the Tories were probably going to do it. Tonight, my colleague Laura will be there – Nuneaton not Basildon, putting the Labour leadership contenders through their paces for the very first hustings.

Tonight, they will speak to a TV audience across the country. But most of it will not get a vote. This is more of a ‘primary’ don’t forget – open to Labour party members, affiliated supporters (ie unions) and registered members.

So here’s the real test:

One of the most succinct pieces of post match analysis, in the days after the election came from Will Straw, failed Labour candidate for Rossendale, and son of Jack. He advised Labour supporters to stop asking themselves who they liked, and to go outside and ask their non-Labour neighbour instead.

That, of course, was how Blair won three times.

The best chance of Labour winning a General Election again, may be to pick the candidate tonight that leaves them feeling – well – a bit uncomfortable. Once Labour members are out of their comfort zone, perhaps the rest of the country will look back up.

Newsnight's Labour leadership debate is on BBC2 tonight at 7pm

Laura Kuenssberg
Newsnight Chief Correspondent

Every election has a moment where the dye is cast, the concrete is set, the parties wake up and smell the coffee, reality hits home, the metaphors roll on. For Labour, the moment where they realised it had all gone wrong was at about 1am when the Conservatives did not just hold on to the constituency of Nuneaton, they did so with ease, and Ed Miliband’s hopes of entering Number 10 disappeared along with that victory. The Warwickshire constituency is exactly the kind of place Labour has to be able to win if they have any hope of taking back power. 

So, in a Newsnight special, where better to test out how Labour’s rivals for the top job than Nuneaton itself. The four contenders will take questions from an audience for an hour at BBC 2 on 7pm.

As we look to the debate,  the race appears to have just entered a rather more vigorous phase, with accusations flying about negative briefings, the left winger Jeremy Corbyn just sneaking on to the ballot paper at the very last minute, the moderniser Liz Kendall who blazed through the first week of the campaign appearing to lose some momentum. And frankly, the two most experienced candidates Andy Burnham and Yvette Cooper so far being coy about their big, bold ideas, if indeed they exist. Some MPs in the party seem more interested in constructing a new mechanism for booting the winner out if they disappoint after securing the job.

And it is the first big chance for the candidates to show to the public how they might perform, and to compare them alongside each other, as the race for one of the country's most important jobs gets underway. Even better, the debate is on at 7pm, so you don't have to stay up wildly late for Nuneaton.

Ed Brown
Newsnight producer

I've just spoken to Bill Cash, Maastricht rabble rouser and arch eurosceptic, whose hostile amendment to the Government's Bill on an EU referendum attracted 97 votes against 288 for the Government. Labour abstained and the SNP voted with Bill, which implies 30 odd Conservative rebels (we will get a precise number later). This is probably rather bad news for a Government with a single figure majority.

Anyway - he seemed rather pleased for a man that had just lost a vote. He told me:

"We made a very substantial point. There are people who agree with us but didn’t want to vote with us. The figures in terms of what people want are much higher than the Conservatives that rebelled today. Look at the 81 MPs that rebelled on Europe in the last Parliament." 

On his negotiations with the government: "We got quite a lot out of them"

And in summary: "I call that a good day’s work."

Laura Kuenssberg
Newsnight Chief Correspondent

Every election has a moment where the dye is cast, the concrete is set, the parties wake up and smell the coffee, reality hits home, the metaphors roll on. For Labour, the moment where they realised it had all gone wrong was at about 1am when the Conservatives did not just hold on to the constituency of Nuneaton, they did so with ease, and Ed Miliband’s hopes of entering Number 10 disappeared along with that victory. The Warwickshire constituency is exactly the kind of place Labour has to be able to win if they have any hope of taking back power. 

So, in a Newsnight special, where better to test out how Labour’s rivals for the top job than Nuneaton itself. The four contenders will take questions from an audience for an hour at BBC 2 on 7pm.

As we look to the debate,  the race appears to have just entered a rather more vigorous phase, with accusations flying about negative briefings, the left winger Jeremy Corbyn just sneaking on to the ballot paper at the very last minute, the moderniser Liz Kendall who blazed through the first week of the campaign appearing to lose some momentum. And frankly, the two most experienced candidates Andy Burnham and Yvette Cooper so far being coy about their big, bold ideas, if indeed they exist. Some MPs in the party seem more interested in constructing a new mechanism for booting the winner out if they disappoint after securing the job.

And it is the first big chance for the candidates to show to the public how they might perform, and to compare them alongside each other, as the race for one of the country's most important jobs gets underway. Even better, the debate is on at 7pm, so you don't have to stay up wildly late for Nuneaton.

Sue Lloyd Roberts is a BBC and ITN legend. She is a brave and tireless campaigner for human rights. She was the first journalist into Homs - smuggled into town in the back of a car. She was given a seven year prison sentence in absentia in China for her reporting on Chinese gulags and still went back there to report despite the risks. Then there are her reports on FGM, Burma, North Korea (for which she won an Emmy award). She has spent her life trying to give vulnerable and repressed people a voice.

Sadly Sue has a been diagnosed with an aggressive form of leukemia. She’s had two courses of chemo in anticipation of a stem cell transplant and was due to go into hospital last month for a transplant. Unfortunately the donor failed his medical at the last moment. She urgently needs a donor whose tissue type is the same as hers.

The BBC is going to hold an open day for the AnthonyNolan Trust, external to come into the BBC – on 22nd June, 10am to 4pm. They will set up on the 2nd floor. People will be asked to give a saliva sample, if they want to become donors. Even if it does not help her, there are 37,000 other people out there waiting so it could help hundreds of other people.

You have to be under 30 to be able to donate. Please ask any friends and colleagues to sign up – or do forward this to them. Even if people are not BBC we can get them into the building. If you have any questions email james.clayton@bbc.co.uk

Sue is writing a blog at the moment - you can read it here, external

Duncan Weldon
Economics correspondent

I’ve been expecting a deal on Greece for weeks. It hasn’t happened.

So, at risk of looking silly as the days and weeks drag on and very silly if “Grexit” actually occurs, I thought it was worth briefly setting out why I still think this…

I don’t think the Greek government actually wants to leave the Euro. In the short to medium term the political and economic costs would be too high and, more fundamentally, it would represent them losing control of the situation. I think it’s a step too far.

Secondly, I don’t think the creditors want Greece to leave the Euro. The short term contagion risk might be manageable – although it might not be- but in the longer term a Greek exit would send an important signal: the Euro isn’t necessarily forever.

Given those points, a deal is in both sides interests. I even think it’s possible to imagine what a deal would like: a 6-12 month financing programme for Greece based on them running a 1% primary budget surplus this year and a touch higher next year and a review of the Greek labour market by international experts such as the ILO or the OECD. That could be agreed tomorrow.

The really contentious outstanding issues are further cuts in Greek pension spending and the question of debt restructuring.  A solution there isn’t unimaginable – Greece could agree to go further on pensions (and they’ve already shifted since January) and in return a timetable for debt restructuring could be agreed.

If a final sweetener was needed for the Greek side, there’s always the Juncker Plan for a European wide investment programme – direct some of that towards Greece to offset the effects on its own fiscal contraction and call it a “mini-Marshall Plan” if you must.

That’s a deal which is uncomfortable for Greece (it’s another shorter term fix, the debt reduction would be tied to compliance on reform and austerity won’t be ended) but also uncomfortable for the creditors (more debt reduction, a reversal of some previous reforms and a sense that Greece has been “rewarded for breaking the rules”).

 A deal which is a bit uncomfortable for both sides is exactly what a compromise looks like.

Just because such a deal can be sketched out doesn’t mean it will happen, but I still think it’s more likely than not.  

Duncan Weldon
Economics correspondent

Duncan Weldon
Economics correspondent

Duncan Weldon
Economics correspondent

Yet more fraught talks today between EU ministers on the subject of what to do with the thousands of migrants arriving on Europe¹s southern shores. Italy wants other European countries to take their share under a quota system. If they won¹t, Italy says it will "act unilaterally". 

What might that mean? Well, migrants could be given temporary residence permits, allowing them to travel throughout the Shengen zone (though not to Britain).

What would be the impact of that? Perhaps not much. Last week I docked in the Sicilian port of Augusta along with 372 migrants from Eritrea who had been rescued from the sea by a privately-funded rescue operation called MOAS (Migrant Offshore Aid Station). 

You can watch my report on the rescue here., external

Leave aside for a moment the fact that Europe appears to be farming out (some of) its search and rescue duties to an American philanthropist with a converted fishing trawler. 

Few of the Eritreans wanted to stay in Italy. They were mostly middle-class young men with university degrees looking for jobs. Jobs they thought they¹d not likely find in Sicily. The following day, dozens of them staged a mass breakout from the reception centre in which they were being held. We watched as the Italian police made an extremely half-hearted effort to recapture them.

I¹ve kept in touch with some of them: one is now in Switzerland; another is in Milan actively working on a plan to smuggle himself into Britain. In the absence of an EU agreement on resettlement, the Italian authorities seem to be giving the migrants a helping hand. 

We've got a big report on this on Newsnight on Thursday. Do watch if you can.

Duncan Weldon
Economics correspondent

For weeks Greece and its creditors have been slowly narrowing their differences, inching closer together. On some of the big fundamental questions the gap is almost gone – they broadly agree on the level of surpluses Greece should be running and on the much contested question of labour market reforms they seem to have found a way to park the issue through a review by the OECD and/or ILO.

The big gaps now are over the shape of any further fiscal consolidation rather than size (VAT rates and pension reform) and whether there are explicit steps towards debt restructuring. At the moment the talks have hit another impasse.  Both sides are saying they are waiting for the other to make a new offer.

Eventually something will have to give. There are two possible “somethings” on the horizon.

(i) A renewed pickup in the flow of money out of Greek banks could force the government’s hand. It was the fear of a bank run that pushed them into a deal back in February.

(ii) The markets for Spanish, Italian & Portuguese government debt have had a rough few days with the cost of borrowing for those nations rising. For months the markets have behaved as if Greece is a “special case” and that a Greek exit from the Euro would be “manageable”.  As a possible Greek exit looms closer they may be starting to reassess this belief – and any sign that the Greek crisis risks serious financial contagion may prompt the creditors into pushing for a quicker end.