In or out? Taking the views on the EU referendum on Dublin's Grafton Street

Matthew d'Ancona, writing in the Guardian today,, external says the UK is "10 days away from making a terrible mistake for deplorably stupid reasons".

"If we do choose Brexit, it will be in no small part because the leave campaign efficiently aggregated fear of immigration in its various forms and - much more importantly - persuaded a sufficiency of voters that getting out of the EU would fix the problem," he writes.

D'Ancona says "the least edifying feature" of the EU campaign is "the spectacle of intellectually brilliant politicians pretending that profoundly complex policy problems are, in fact, easily solved".

But writing in the Daily Express, Leo McKinstry says, external outside the EU, the UK "will be free to decide our own national destiny"... as a sovereign, democratic nation".

He argues that "open borders" mean "the future of the EU already looks chaotic and fragmented" and the arrival of Turkey would "only deepen that breakdown". 

"The status quo is not on the ballot paper. The only alternatives for our future are national liberation or alien subjugation."

The implied probability of a British vote to stay in the European Union is 64%, down significantly from last week, according to odds supplied by bookmaker Betfair. 

Implied probability is a conversion of odds into a percentage, by the way.

As recently as last Thursday, betting odds indicated a 78% probability of a Remain vote, Betfair said.

William Hill puts the likelihood of a Remain vote at 69% currently, while Ladbrokes has it at 68% - both figures are down from a week ago.

Kamal Ahmed
Economics editor

The markets are waking up to the reality that the chances of the UK leaving the European Union on 23 June are real.

After two polls putting Leave ahead by between 1% (The Sunday Times) and 10% (The Independent), Betfair’s odds on the chances of Remain have now fallen to 68.5%, down from nearly 80% last week.

Sterling has weakened this morning against the dollar and the yen.

And the one month “volatility index” – a measure of investors’ views on how much the value of the currency will change in the next four weeks – has hit levels this morning approaching those of the financial crisis.

Nigel Farage might have responded “so what?” to the question of the pound stumbling on the markets.

Investors are somewhat less sanguine.

During angry exchanges at the West Midlands EU referendum debate, an MP says we would "pay and have no say" on the likes of immigration if the UK voted to leave.

To bring you up to speed:

- Gordon Brown is stepping into the debate, making what he's calling a "positive" case for the UK to lead in the EU. He says Labour voters "don't want the status quo" and he insists change is possible - more jobs, greater security - if the country remains an EU member

- But leading Leave voice Iain Duncan Smith said the UK "had its chance at reform and the European Union said 'get lost'". He also accused Labour of "lecturing" its supporters over immigration and refusing to hear their concerns

- BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg says Mr Brown's intervention is evidence of a realisation by Remain that Labour voters need to hear a different voice to Conservative ones - "a different and more positive message, something that suggests that the EU can make their lives better as the world 'changes around them like a runaway train'

- Elsewhere, senior Conservative Andrew Tyrie - chair of the influential Treasury Select Committee - says he's supporting Remain, arguing leaving the EU would almost certainly lead to a "short-term economic shock"

- And the bosses of BT have joined with two communication workers' unions to write to staff explaining why they too support Remain

- Finally, Migration Watch UK - a campaign group that favours lower immigration - says net migration to the UK could exceed 250,000 a year until 2035 if Britain stays in the EU

Image source, Getty Images

The Scottish Parliament could get new powers over immigration if the UK leaves the EU, according to Vote Leave's Michael Gove. 

The justice secretary told BBC Scotland's Good Morning Scotland  "it would be for Scotland to decide" how many immigrants it admits.

He acknowledged that the Home Office currently sets immigration policy for the whole of the UK, but said "one of the advantages of moving outside the EU is that we would be able, as a United Kingdom, to have control over immigration policy". 

Mr Gove added: "Holyrood would be strengthened if we left the EU. The Scottish Parliament would have new powers over fishing, agriculture, over some social areas and potentially over immigration."

But Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, who backs Remain, wasn't convinced:  

Image source, Getty Images

Gordon Brown isn't the only senior Labour figure speaking out for Remain today - we'll also be hearing from shadow foreign secretary Hilary Benn. 

He's expected to say Leave campaigners "sound as if they mourn for the bygone age in which Britain gained influence through military strength and Empire".

"In the second half of the 20th Century, we came to realise that it was far better and far more effective to be a global power that achieved its goals through co-operation rather than conquest."

Mr Benn will also warn that this is now "the defining moment in this referendum", adding:

BT bosses and union leaders send a letter to the company's 81,400 staff explaining why they want Britain to stay in the European Union.

Image source, PA

We told you earlier that Conservative chair of the Treasury Select Committee Andrew Tyrie has announced he is backing Remain.

On the issue of immigration, he told the Times that while Brexit would allow the UK greater control over EU immigration, it was "unlikely" that the remaining members would be prepared to negotiate "anything resembling current levels of single-market access" without the retention of a high degree of free movement of labour.

If the UK gave up some trading rights in return for stricter immigration controls, "the downside risks from diminished access to the single market would outweigh any upside opportunities from trade with the rest of the world for an extended period", Mr Tyrie argued.

One Conservative MP, Nadine Dorries, though, is decidedly sceptical, questioning what George Osborne "promised Andrew Tyrie in return" for his support.

Meanwhile, Liam Fox's Vote Leave colleague Iain Duncan Smith has accused Labour of lecturing rather than listening to its own supporters over immigration.

He said traditional Labour voters were “pretty disgusted” with the party over its pro-EU stance: "Surely you should be listening to what they say. They’re not - they’re in lecture mode."

The former cabinet minister added: “Unlimited migration from the EU has driven their wages down. Fact of life.

“The number one thing they want is migration brought under control and Labour has nothing to say on that matter.”

Today Programme
BBC Radio 4

Conservative MP Liam Fox says it is "unacceptable" for some members of his party "to impune the motives, or the integrity, or the honesty of their colleagues".

He says "these scars" are likely to "last well beyond the referendum date itself", adding: "My advice to everybody is take a deep breath, stick to the issues."

Today Programme
BBC Radio 4

"My problem is not the free movement of labour. My problem is the free movement of people," says Liam Fox, because people from the EU have "the complete right" to come to the UK whether they have a job or not and then get access to public services.

The ex-defence secretary says the EU is "accelerating" plans for Turkish membership and that will bring even greater numbers of people to the UK.

"We know where all of this ends and it can only stop when we say we are outside the European Union's jurisdiction on this."

Today Programme
BBC Radio 4

Image source, Getty Images

Shortly after Mr Brown's appearance on Today, former defence secretary and Leave campaigner Liam Fox stepped into the hot seat.

"We may need migration, but not necessarily from the European Union..." he said, when asked whether the UK could function without so many arrivals.

"The question is, 'Do we have a choice in who comes to the United Kingdom?" he continued.

"If we wanted to take a skilled surgeon from Australia we would not be able to do that if we were able to fill the post from the European Union."

Today Programme
BBC Radio 4

Ending his interview on Today, Gordon Brown refused to accept John Humphry's request that he "put aside illegal immigration" for a moment and discuss migration more generally.

The former PM said:

Labour MP Tristram Hunt demands an apology from Lord Digby Jones after being accused of lying during a discussion on immigration in a special EU debate.

Today Programme
BBC Radio 4

Gordon Brown refuses to criticise the current Labour leader, saying he is "making the case as Jeremy is" about the potential for a better future

He reiterates his message that Labour voters "don't want the status quo", adding: "They want to know that they will be better off and that's the argument I can put."

The former PM says the UK could lead in the EU to create another 500,000 jobs through reform of the single market, to tackle cross-border terrorism, to boost the use of renewable energy and to address tax avoidance.

On immigration, he adds: "I believe that in Britain we have managed migration... I also believe that the biggest problem is going to be illegal migration."