House of Commons
Parliament

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Conservative MP William Wragg calls on the Brexit minister to "name me a single civil service forecast, leaked or otherwise, that has been accurate".

Steve Baker replies: "No I am not able to name an accurate forecast, and I think that they are always wrong, and wrong for good reasons".

He says his views on the flaws in the "epistemology of the social sciences" are "long-standing".

"I'm happy to recommend a reading list", he adds.

House of Lords
Parliament

Crossbencher and former head of the civil service Lord Butler of Brockwell says the prospect of repealing the European Communities Act "strikes a dagger to my soul" since he remembers the negotiations involved in its passing.

He fears people are on an "illusory quest for independence" but says he understands why 52% voted leave, citing the EU's efforts for a closer federal union.

He lends his backing to the bill, urging the Lords to improve it "without straying beyond its proper constitutional role".

House of Lords
Parliament

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Labour former Northern Ireland secretary Lord Hain claims the bill is the "last opportunity to prevent a hard Irish land border".

The importance of avoiding such a border dictates that the UK should remain in the single market and the customs union, he tells the House.

He continues: "Nobody who understands the island of Ireland believes keeping the present border can be achieved without Northern Ireland being in the single market."

The Good Friday Agreement is predicated on a shared regulatory structure, he says.

House of Commons
Parliament

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Lib Dem Brexit spokesman Tom Brake accuses the minister of "treating parliamentarians like chumps".

He says the minister "knows" that Brexit is "going to cause huge damage to British jobs and British families", and calls for a referendum on the final deal.

Steve Baker tells him that the economic analysis is "clear that in all scenarios there is to be economic growth".

He accuses the former Remain campaign of having "abused figures".

House of Commons
Parliament

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"A lack of transparency is not in the national interest" says Labour Brexit select committee chair Hillary Benn.

He says the Brexit secretary David Davis told him in December the government had not conducted economic impact assessments for different sectors of the economy.

"Now we learn that in fact it has been done," he tells MPs, calling for an explanation for the "discrepancy between what we were told and what we now in fact know".

Steve Baker replies that it was "always said that our economic analysis was continually evolving".

House of Commons
Parliament

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Conservative MP Philip Davies says the "dodgy figures" in the leaked document are the product of "London-centric Remoaners" in the civil service.

In response Steve Baker says he is "proud of the officials with whom I work" and their efforts to implement the Brexit vote from the public.

He adds however that government analysis is seeking to "improve on what has gone before", and says the previous approach to Brexit forecasting was flawed.

House of Lords
Parliament

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Conservative former leader of the Lords, Lord Strathclyde, reminds peers that the bill had a "gruelling passage" through the Commons, "which cannot always be said".

He urges peers to approach the task of revising it in "a positive and constructive manner".

"The House is at its best when it is in opposition to the government but on the side of the people," he elaborates.

House of Lords
Parliament

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Crossbench Lord Green of Deddington, who chairs Migrationwatch, says he was not aware of how closely linked the UK had become to the EU until he read the bill.

He says that leaving the EU must lead to a reduction in migration to the UK.

82% of the 10 million population growth expected in the UK over the next 25 years will be down to immigration, he adds.

"The public's concern about the scale of immigration is well-founded," he states.

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Lib Dem Lord Campbell of Pittenweem, former party leader, says the Brexit process is not helped by having a government "infused with discord, weakness and ambition".

He casts Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg as Robespierre in his "threats" against the Lords, but insists: "I'm not here to thwart the will of the House of Commons."

"I know what my duty is," he goes on, "to bring the Commons attention to defects in the bill - goodness knows they need it."

House of Commons
Parliament

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SNP Europe spokesman Stephen Gethins says the analysis in this morning's document is "very similar" to forecasts produced by the Scottish government.

"If the Scottish government can produce its figures, why can't this government?", he asks.

In reply Brexit Minister Steve Baker says the UK government is "doing our own homework".

House of Commons
Parliament

Brexit Minister Steve Baker says the government is conducting a "wide range" of analysis which is "evolving continually".

"This economic analysis is not what is formally known as an impact assessment", he says - prompting some laughter from the opposition benches.

He accuses Labour of "neglecting" the duty of the government to protect the UK's national interest during the Brexit talks.

"They want to overturn the result," he adds.

House of Lords
Parliament

Labour's Lord Rooker says "David Cameron betted his country for party peace" and voters opted for Leave on the basis of "a lie" about the money that would be spent on the NHS.

"It's never too late to avoid making a bad decision," he says, and the role of the Lords is to "ask the Commons to think again".

He accuses his party of putting "tribe before country" on Brexit, and jokes that he found himself thinking that if Lord Heseltine were leader of a tribe he would join it.

House of Lords
Parliament

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Conservative Lord Higgins says the bill "marks a milestone" in the move towards Brexit.

He says that the referendum was advisory, and not compulsory for the government to follow through on. He says that David Cameron's response on the steps of Downing Street the following morning set the tone for the government to have to follow through on the result.

Referendums are not democratic, in the sense that they are not representative like our democracy is, he adds. He says the campaign was "riddled with lies".

"A majority of the British people did not vote for it," he says "because a large number realised that they didn't understand the issues, and decided not to vote, and even the majority of those voting, was not all that large".

House of Lords
Parliament

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Green peer Baroness Jones of Moulsecoomb, who went against her party in voting Leave, says she still thinks we can have "a greener, fairer, healthier country by leaving the EU... but I absolutely cannot support the bill as it stands".

She's concerned about "omission" of interpretative aids for those making legal rulings, such as the "polluter pays" principle and the requirement of upholding biodiversity.

"We cannot allow the deficiencies in this bill to prevail," she urges, mentioning the government's proposals on animal sentience.

House of Commons
Parliament

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"Not good enough!" replies Shadow Brexit Secretary Sir Keir Starmer as he gets to his feet.

This is "take two" of the previous controversy over the government's "impact assessments" into the economic effects of Brexit, he adds.

Parliament is "entitled to know" the likely impact of the government's approach to Brexit, but the government has "repeatedly refused" Labour's attempts to get forecasts published, he said.

He asks when the analysis forming the basis of this morning's article was commissioned, and whether this is the only report into likely Brexit scenarios.

He calls for the documents to be published immediately.

House of Commons
Parliament

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Over in the House of Commons, the Brexit minister Steve Baker tells MPs that the document leaked this morning was not "anywhere near" being approved by ministers and requires "significant further work".

He says he had not even seen it himself until this morning.

The article which prompted this urgent question, he says, is a "selective interpretation" of a primary analysis and "an attempt to undermine our exit from the European Union".

The government will give MPs "appropriate" analysis of the effect of Brexit on the economy when it brings forward the vote on the final deal, he says.

However it cannot be expected that this is published before it is finished or whilst the negotiations are still ongoing, he adds.

House of Lords
Parliament

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Liberal Democrat Lord Wallace of Tankerness points to the Lords Constitution Committee report saying that the bill in its current form "is unconstitutional".

He says that the bill "turns the architecture of devolution on its head" and shows "little respect" for "parity of esteem" with the devolved governments in the UK.

He says there is no explanation as to why Scottish ministers can deal with deficiencies in retained EU law, but not in cases of EU legislation, where that must be dealt with by UK ministers.

House of Lords
Parliament

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Labour's Lord Mandelson, a former EU commissioner, says "the government cannot act as if it has a blank cheque to take the UK out of the EU in any vandalistic way it chooses".

He claims the treatment of the chancellor, often seen as an advocate for a softer Brexit than the rest of the Cabinet, has left British business leaders "bemused and demoralised".

"We would have been met with considerable flexibility" in Brexit talks if we had left the way open to single market membership, he argues.

The future relationship with the EU was not on the ballot and "the rest of the country cannot be treated by the Conservative Party as if it doesn't matter," he says.

Susan Hulme
Parliamentary correspondent

BBC parliamentary correspondent Susan Hulme is presenting Today in Parliament tonight on BBC Radio 4 at 11.30pm. She's keeping an eye on the debate in the House of Lords.

"There's hardly a spare seat in the House of Lords for this marathon debate - some people are even sitting perched on the steps up to the throne to hear the opening speeches. It'll last for two days, and they're even starting earlier each day to squeeze everyone in.

"The list of speakers is bristling with former senior politicians, business people, legal brains - and Brexit campaigners.

We're looking out in particular for David Cameron's former foreign secretary, William Hague, now Lord Hague.

Then there's the former Lord Chief Justice in England and Wales, the appropriately-named Lord Judge, who's already warned of the dangers of handing too much powers from Brussels straight to government ministers in this bill.

"And unlike the Commons, UKIP has a voice in the House of Lords. Former UKIP leader, Lord Pearson was the tenth peer to speak and his colleague Lord Willoughby de Broke is also down to make a speech.

"Even so, this isn't an end of the story. Ahead, there are days and days of debate and votes on the nitty-gritty. That's when the real arguments start - potentially ending in government defeats and changes to the bill."